Wednesday, April 29, 2009

New Poll: CROP

CROP released a new poll today, taken between April 16 and April 26 and involving 1,000 interviews with Quebecers only. The results:

Liberals - 37%
Bloc Quebecois - 31%
Conservatives - 15%
New Democrats - 12%

This is a huge result for the Liberals, and certainly a troubling one for the Bloc. However, CROP has been polling highly for the Liberals. Their three polls this year have put the Liberals at 30%, 31%, and 37%. The Bloc has been at 34%, 35%, and 31%. So, this is likely a slight outlier result.

Francophones gave the Bloc 37%, the Liberals 34%, and the Conservatives 13%. As to who would be the best Prime Minister, Michael Ignatieff is way ahead in Quebec at 45%, followed by Jack Layton at 20% and Stephen Harper at 17%. Gilles Duceppe, despite being unable to become PM, only got 2%, which is an odd result considering most other polls still give Duceppe at least 10% in Quebec for this question.

The projection has changed slightly, with the Liberals gaining a seat in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc. The Liberals are now at 110 and the Bloc at 50. This is significant because now the Conservative "stable" minority has been downgraded to an unstable minority, since the NDP and the Liberals alone can now out-vote the Conservatives. Well, technically they can tie, but that would cause an inordinate amount of instability.

The only popular vote movement was a 0.7 point jump by the Liberals in Quebec.

The "Last 5 Polls" projection has also changed. The 15% in Quebec for the Conservatives was enough to bump them up to three seats, meaning the Conservatives now have 111 seats in that projection and the Bloc has dropped to 51.

The Quebec provincial projections at CentVingtCinq have also been updated. The Liberals and the Parti Québécois are tied at 59 seats there.


  1. I note that they didn't publish a Green number. While the Parti Verte du Canada isn't very significant, to ignore them in a poll will harm your' seat projection model.
    Also, I have a question about how your' model will adapt to an expected pretty drastic re-districting in Ontario, BC, and Alberta? Will you have to start from scratch, or are you having nightmares about how much work is in store for you, re-slicing poll by poll results?

  2. I don't have the actual CROP polling information. Unfortunately, Le Soleil and La Presse only published the top four parties. Adding up those totals, it left 5%. Since the Greens had gotten 4% in the two previous CROP polls, I gave them 4% in the model. If it turns out they had more, I will give them the 5%. So, no harm done to the model.

    I'll have to re-calibrate for the re-distribution of seats, but you're right, it will be tricky. I haven't given it any thought yet. We'll see what happens when it happens.

    By the way, you might be happy to know that some of the recent polling results equate to a Green seat either in Atlantic Canada or Ontario. However, it could be within the margin of error, and there hasn't been enough of a trend to make a projection change. But the numbers have been there.

  3. Seeing as you're a Green supporter, did you get a chance to read my poll analysis of the Green Party? Here is the link:

    I'd be interested in your insights.


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