Saturday, April 25, 2009

New Poll: Angus-Reid Strategies

Angus-Reid Strategies released a new poll today, taken between April 21 and April 22 and including 1,002 interviews. The national results:

Conservatives - 33%
Liberals - 33%
New Democrats - 15%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 6%

While being tied for the lead with the Liberals is a welcome change for the Conservatives, the numbers aren't out of step with what we've seen lately, considering the margin of error.


Conservatives - 38%
Liberals - 35%
New Democrats - 17%
Greens - 7%

This is a bit of an odd result considering what we've seen lately, but it is good for the NDP and the Conservatives; bad for the Liberals.


Bloc Quebecois - 40%
Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 10%
New Democrats - 6%
Greens - 5%

Continued good numbers for the Bloc, an outstanding number for the Liberals, and very bad numbers for the Conservatives and the NDP. The results in the rest of the country are not much out of step with what we've been seeing.

Contrary to recent polls, this poll would give a Conservative minority. An unstable one, however:

Conservatives - 125 seats (+31 from last poll)
Liberals - 109 seats (-16)
Bloc Quebecois - 51 seats (-2)
New Democrats - 23 seats (-9)
Greens - 0 seats (-1)

This poll is very close to the projected results I have. Adding this one to the five-poll-projection, we get a shift:

Liberals - 34.1% - 127 seats (-7)
Conservatives - 31.6% - 110 seats (+7)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.5% - 52 seats (+1)
New Democrats - 15.1% - 19 seats (-1)
Greens - 8.0% - 0 seats (unchanged)

For the projection itself, the Conservatives have dropped one seat and have broken into the 120s. They are now at 129. The Liberals are up to 109, and are on the brink of turning the Conservative stable minority into an unstable one. The national vote projection has changed thusly:

Bloc +0.1
Liberals +0.1
New Democrats (no change)
Conservatives -0.2
Greens -0.2

Regionally, the Conservatives have dropped 0.4 points in Quebec, but have gained 0.1 in Ontario. The Liberals are up 0.4 in British Columbia, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces, but dropped 0.3 in Ontario. The NDP gained 0.2 in the Prairies and Ontario, but lost 0.3 in Quebec. The Bloc is up 0.1 in that province.

This is a good poll for the Conservatives, a rare thing lately. They are back on top in British Columbia, way ahead in the Prairies, and had a good (if unlikely) result in Ontario. But the Quebec number is still very worrisome, and would drop them to one seat in the province. The Liberals should be cautioned with this poll, as though their Atlantic and Quebec results were fantastic, everything west of Quebec gives some cause for alarm. The NDP should be relatively happy with this, as they are doing alright in the Prairies and Ontario, but their British Columbia, Atlantic, and especially Quebec results are trouble. The Bloc continues to do well.