The total sample size for the month of June is relatively large, however, at just under 10,000 Canadians thanks to the mega-poll conducted by Angus Reid Global, which alone sampled over 6,000 people. But the only two pollsters in the field, the other being Forum Research, showed very different results, with Forum giving the Liberals an eight-point lead and Angus Reid judging the Conservatives to hold a one-point advantage.
This inconsistency has been, well, consistent. In May, Forum gave the Liberals a six-point lead when Angus Reid still gave it to the Tories by one point. In April, it was a nine-point edge for the Liberals from Forum and a two-point advantage for the Conservatives from Angus Reid. What this means, then, is that these two pollsters have been showing the same general things for the last few months, regardless of how that compares to the findings of other pollsters.
May. The Conservatives were up 1.8 points to 31%, their highest result since March 2013, before Justin Trudeau became Liberal leader. The NDP was up 1.4 points to 24.3%, while the Greens were down 1.2 points to 5.7%.
The Bloc Québécois was down 0.7 points to 4.7% and 1.3% of Canadians said they would vote for another party.
The Liberals have now led in the polls for the last 15 months, though the Conservatives do seem to be experiencing some wobbly improvement.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives reached their highest level of support since September 2013 with a 4.3-point gain to 33.8%. The NDP jumped 4.7 points to 28.8%, while the Liberals were down 3.6 points to 26.8%. That was their third consecutive month of decrease. The Greens were down 4.5 points to 9.6%.
The Conservatives led in Alberta with 55.4%, up 7.4 points since May, while the Liberals were down 0.3 points to 22.7%. The NDP hit a 4.2-point slide to 12.9%, while the Greens were down 1.8 points to 6.7%.
In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives hit their highest level of support in a year with a 2.3-point gain to 43.5%, while the Liberals were up 2.2 points to 30.9%. The NDP was down 1.8 points to 21%, and the Greens were down two points to 4%.
Support for the Liberals has been steady in Ontario for nine months now, at between 37% and 38%. In June, the party averaged 37.7%, a drop of 0.1 point, while the Conservatives were up 0.5 points to 35.3%. The NDP was up 0.9 points to 20.7%, while the Greens dropped 0.4 points to 5.7%.
The Bloc Québécois was down 3.2 points to 17.9%, their worst since August 2013. The result at that point, and their average in June, marks their lowest support levels since October 2011. Mario Beaulieu is experiencing the opposite of a honeymoon. The Conservatives were down 1.9 points to 12.3%, while the Greens were up 0.3 points to 3.3%.
Note, since both Léger and CROP reported in June, the average is more robust for Quebec than it is elsewhere. Also, I had missed recording a CROP poll from May, so the monthly average has been retroactively adjusted. It is reflected in the tracking chart above.
And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals took a 3.7-point drop to 50%. The Conservatives were up 5.9 points to 24% and the NDP increased by 1.4 points to 20.3%, while the Greens were down 1.9 points to 5.3%.
Last month, a 4.7-point national lead for the Liberals translated into a tie in the seat count with the Conservatives. This month, the two-point lead translates into a 13-seat deficit.
The Conservatives gained one seat apiece in British Columbia, Alberta, and the Prairies, and picked up two in Atlantic Canada. They dropped four in Quebec, however.
The Liberals were down one seat in Ontario and Alberta each, two in both Quebec and Atlantic Canada, and six in British Columbia.
The NDP was up 13 seats in Quebec, five in British Columbia, and one in Ontario, but was down one on the Prairies.
Overall, then, it would seem to be a rather poor month for the Liberals. But is that fair? A completely unweighted average of the Forum and Angus Reid polls from May and June would reveal a 1.5-point gain for the Liberals, rather than a loss. But the party has been losing steam in British Columbia for the last few months, and the NDP does seem to be making inroads in Quebec again (primarily at the expense of the Bloc Québécois). The Conservatives are slowly returning from the doldrums of the high-20s, but are still very far from a re-elected majority government. Will the summer see any of this change, or will the numbers solidify as people turn their attentions elsewhere?