Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Summer hiatus

We're in the dog days of summer now and, as we all know, polls are for dogs. So ThreeHundredEight.com will be taking a brief summer hiatus, returning after the civic holiday long weekend.

In the meantime, you might want to check out some of the recent articles posted to this site that you may have missed:

- A look at how the Ontario provincial election campaign would have been perceived differently if the likely voter models that performed so poorly had been ignored.
- A breakdown of federal party support by age and gender, and an investigation of how this support has shifted since the 2011 federal election.
- A history of the riding of Kingston and the Islands, from John A. Macdonald to Ted Hsu.
- All the latest polls from the upcoming Toronto mayoral race.

And if you really need a polling fix, time to finally check out Tapping into the Pulse, my ebook retrospective of 2013's year in politics and polling. What happened with the polls in British Columbia and the Brandon-Souris by-election? Why were the polls so much better in Nova Scotia? What was Justin Trudeau's first year as Liberal leader like, or the last year before the Quebec and Ontario provincial elections? You can find the links to order here.

You might want to explore the site a little bit as well. After six years and almost 1,500 posts, there is plenty to keep you occupied!

See you in August! Elections in New Brunswick and Toronto are just around the corner - it should be an interesting autumn.


41 comments:

  1. Have a good vacation Eric. You're appreciated

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  2. Have a great vacation Éric, I really enjoy reading the posts. As a political junkie and a statistics prof it combines two of my favourite things. Now if you could somehow get video games and drinking gin rolled in it would be perfect......

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  3. Anyone here has seen the latest Forum results (July 16)?

    Link is here: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Fed%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2014.07.17)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

    44% LPC
    28% CPC
    18% NDP
    5% BQ
    3% GPC

    "Provincial" numbers look like this:

    Atlantic
    53% LPC
    21% CPC
    18% NDP
    6% GPC

    Québec
    41% LPC
    22% NDP
    20% BQ
    14% CPC
    2% GPC

    Ontario
    50% LPC
    32% CPC
    14% NDP
    3% GPC

    Prairies
    47% LPC
    33% CPC
    18% NDP
    1% GPC

    Alberta
    55% CPC
    30% LPC
    9% NDP
    4% GPC

    British Columbia
    35% LPC
    30% NDP
    29% CPC
    5% GPC

    I find those numbers totally wacko, but what do I know? I'm not here to judge the numbers, just to input them and say what they would translate into in an election. I do know though that compared to two months ago (Forum on May 23rd), the LPC has gained 6% in BC, 8% in Ontario, 10% in La Belle Province and 14% in the Prairies... During what is mostly summer time and calm on the news front, that just seems highly unlikely.

    Still, with those numbers, my model would give a seat projection of:

    219 LPC
    83 CPC
    35 NDP
    1 GPC

    Yup, that's a clean sweep against the Bloc.

    By "province", I get:

    Atlantic
    25 LPC
    4 CPC
    3 NDP

    Québec
    63 LPC
    8 NDP
    7 CPC

    Ontario
    89 LPC
    24 CPC
    8 NDP

    Prairies
    21 LPC
    6 CPC
    1 NDP

    Alberta
    29 CPC
    4 LPC
    1 NDP

    British Columbia
    14 LPC
    14 NDP
    13 CPC
    1 GPC

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    1. According to the press release the Forum Poll was conducted on Friday July 18th. IVR polls in the best of circumstances suffer from a low response rate. This particular poll was conducted on a Friday evening mid-summer on an evening that saw little rain. Before we trust the results of this poll someone should be pushing Forum to release their response rates or at a minimum, note if a polls response rate differs from their traditional response rates.

      Sources:

      http://climate.weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?RadarSite=NAT&sYear=2014&sMonth=7&sDay=18&sHour=20&sMin=40&Duration=2&ImageType=PRECIPET_RAIN_WEATHEROFFICE&scale=14

      http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Fed%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282014.07.17%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

      Delete
  4. " I do know though that compared to two months ago (Forum on May 23rd), the LPC has gained 6% in BC, 8% in Ontario, 10% in La Belle Province and 14% in the Prairies... During what is mostly summer time and calm on the news front, that just seems highly unlikely."

    Somebody else on this board much earlier said the "bombing Harper Govt" or words to that effect.

    These numbers also point out how much the public is turned off by the Harperites and how much Justin's boyish charm is affecting things.

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  5. The poll does seem highly unlikely but, outlier do happen.

    From these numbers at least, it appears the NDP 2011 vote has collapsed and returned to the Liberals. At 14% in Ontario the NDP is at pre-Layton numbers.

    But much of this poll seems suspicious 47% for the Liberals on the Prairies? Does anybody believe that? 30% in Alberta for a party that is opposed to two big pipelines the Alberta economy needs. Does anybody believe that?

    Maybe during the dog days of Summer without the cut and thrust of an election campaign or the debating of policies Trudeau can score 44% but, once the campaign begins I think Trudeua will have a hard time holding that 44%.

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    1. I also believe that, under pressure, Trudeau will stumble and fall. Considering that, right now, under no pressure whatsoever, he has multiplied the mistakes, during the campaign, I can only see him put his foot in his mouth on one too many occasion.

      47% for the LPC in the Prairies, 50% in Ontario and even 41% in Québec... those all stike me as on the fringe of ridiculous. The NDP at 22% in Québec is also strange... of course they won't get the 43% they had the last time around, but to say they'll have half of that, I don't believe so, especially if the Bloc doesn't bounce back. People keep talking about inexperience, but afer a full 4 years in official opposition, all those candidates will have much more experience than most LPC candidates in the province (save fore a few old timers with experience aplenty). For other provinces, it's harder for me to say, I don't live there, but I really feel like this one is a big outlier...

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  6. This poll is a disaster for Mulciar! If this was the UK there would be open speculation in the papers about whether Mulcair will see out the election. The Quebec numbers are awful but even worse are the RoC numbers. They have gone back to their traditional place and stance and on the lower end of that! He hasn't won over Quebec and he is unable to solidify the NDP's position in Ontario or the West.

    Time to dump Mully!

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    1. one poll

      but I'd like to see some major changes in the party to better reflect its "traditional" progressive values... for example, a word of criticism of Israel's assault in Israel is in order...

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    2. It is only one poll but, it fits into a larger trend; the longer Mulcair is NDP leader the lower the NDP poll results.

      As for Israel I feel both Israel and Palestine are equally at fault. Heck if one wants to get technical the Roman Empire and other former powers could be rightly criticised and blamed. This conflict or rather the Jewish struggle to create and maintain a homeland centred around Jerusalem has been ongoing since at least the 2nd century A.D. Canada should not become involved-we should ignore and disassociate with both sides as much as possible.

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    3. You're right it is only one poll but, it continues a downward trend for the NDP. Other than a short bump after Mully's election as leader the NDP numbers are decidedly negative without the usual fluxuation expected over two and a half years.

      I expect the NDP will do better than 22% in Quebec come the election but, in Ontario, the West and the Atlantic they can expect to lose seats. On the West Coast public sentiment is moving against left-wing politicians, I think Mayor Gregor Robertson will be defeated and I think Nathan Cullen will have to fight hard to retain his seat as he'll split the anti-pipline vote with the Grits whereas, the pro-resource development vote will go 100% Conservative.

      I don't think the election will hinge on "progressive values" as much as; what can the NDP do for me?

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  7. The MOS is what 4-5% on that poll?....assuming the libs are too high and the cons are too low on those margins, the numbers are still quite wide between them. Wait and see until the next forum poll and at the very least the next poll to see how much of an outlier it is...which does seem likely

    As a side note, I think you might be putting too much in the concept that putting a foot in the mouth matters at all. Rob ford seems to be the worst case politician (not to mention his personal life) cannot go a week without breaking some ethical rules, making some kind of out offensive comments yet has a pool of rock solid support. While I am sure any politician would prefer not to be compared to Rob Ford, I am only saying that the concept of personal brand matters a lot in terms of what a voter wants in a person to represent them. Trudeau is what Harper is not, those voters who have decided Harper is impossible to vote for will pick the best positioned person to beat him, which right now does certainly seem to be the liberals. Thats not to say Trudeau is going to win the next election, I just don't think the kind of mistakes he is making much...afterall you can smoke crack, lie about it, accuse the police chief of political bias, skip work, skip committee meetings, and divert city resources to highschool football programming yet still have a chance to be mayor. You know what I mean?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. The MoE on the poll was +/-2%.

      If Trudeau is what Harper isn't one may assume Trudeau lacks leadership. He certainly hasn't put forth any substantial policies except he would like to decriminalise pot. That would be a great idea except under scrutiny people will rightly question the effect it may have on our trading relationship with the USA. A political party that runs on a platform of what it isn't is likely to fail-ask Carole James.

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    2. Carl,

      I don't disagree in principle, but it's generally right wing politicians that get away with the faults you mention, whereas liberal/left politicians are held to the fire... e.g. Bob Dole vs. Gary Hart or Bill Clinton - all had affairs, etc may more examples...

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    3. This is a silly reply AG. One can assume anything when your end goal of the assumption is pre determined, since I can tell by the tone of your posts that objectivity isnt going to flow. But really the liberals won't release most of their major policies until the election campaign and I am pretty sure you know that is how it will be. Its not like they will run an election campaign without a platform.

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    4. Carl completely agree. To release anything over a year before an election is insanity. And your point re obvious orientation is appropriate

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    5. CS,

      The only assumption are your own; assuming people will vote Trudeau because; "Trudeau is what Harper is not" and the Liberals are " best positioned person to beat him".

      The way things are going for the Liberals they may not even exist come the 43rd Canadian General Election. Who is going to risk Canada's prosperity to an untrained leader with no policies and poor judgement? he's a drama teacher! I am not sure he is qualifed to be an M.P. much less prime minister. Plato warned about having actors as politicians!

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    6. Ronald Reagan..actor...though I am sure you were being less literal....and Canadian voters get to decide who is qualified, abstracted of course. Farmers, Teachers, Lawyers, Doctors, I am sure we can find MP's from about every profession save perhaps a few less than savoury ones, though it seems politicians make good criminals as well.

      Delete
  8. IT'S AUGUST! See me again now!

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  9. It's fascinating in a way to see what happens when the CPC numbers decline. Don't try to explain them rationally instead immediately attack Justin !!

    Sorry folks but this Govt is nearing the magical 10 year period and as such can be expected to be defeated. It's the way of Canadian politics. Personally I won't be unhappy to see the end of the Harper goons !

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    Replies
    1. Claiming others "immediately attack Justin", then, almost instantaneously attacking Harper by calling Conservatives "goons". Talk about a double standard! Yet, you complain others "don't try to explain them (declining Conservative poll numbers) rationally". What is your rationale for calling conservatives goons? It appears you forgot to publish it!

      Lots of Governments go longer than 10 years by your logic both McGuinty and Wynne should have lost their last elections. Trudeau managed to hang on, Mackenzie King did better than hang on and Macdonald won his last four elections. Canadians politics is fluid enough that a year out from a general election anybody who predicts the outcome is foolhardy.

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    2. "Canadians politics is fluid enough that a year out from a general election anybody who predicts the outcome is foolhardy. "

      And yet you just did, eh?

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    3. No. I make no prediction as to who or what party may win either the next election or any election.

      I did demonstrate your idea of a "magical 10 year period and as such (the Government) can be expected to be defeated" limiting the terms of governments, has little basis in fact.

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    4. I'm probably part of the "Trudeau bashing" you mentionned because of my comment, but the truth is, it's Trudeau constructivism. I would, a million times over, choose Trudeau over Harper, no question about it. I loathe Stephen Harper and abhor what he has done to Canada.

      The problem is, right now, Trudeau has done absolutely nothing to sell his party. He looks good, he's young, he's the son of the other Trudeau, he's prochoice and he's for marijuana legalization, that's about it. I don't get why people are so enthusiastic about him beause he has shown, up to now, zero statesmanship. He is still surfing on his election wave and doesn't seem to care about actually promoting ideas. Of course, once the campaign comes around, that may chance, but then, the old cynicism of "it's just campaign talk" will definitely have some roots. Or else, he's going to promote his party's past successes for lack of bringing ideas to the front and that will bite him in the ass. Hard.

      Harper, as much as I hate him, actually promotes his ideas (and personally attacks his adversaries, which is absolutely wrong) and that brought him success. Mulcair is doing the same thing and destroying Harper's vision, but somehow, people find Trudeau prettier and he's getting the votes, so Mulcair is actually working for Trudeau! That's wrong and shows how much the population cares about politics and what they know of it. May is also promoting her own ideas, though fewer people know about it because she doesn't get much screen time.

      So if it were to come down to just two candidates, Trudeau, by far, is the best choice, even if he's been an empty shell since his election as party leader. But this is not a two party election, and I believe that there are far more interesting options in the field right now. "Not Harper" is not a good vote, you should always vote for something and not against something. And that is Trudeau's biggest flaw, he is "not-Harper" and playing that card to death in the hope of getting elected.

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    5. Thierry just wait. Justin and his handlers are doing just the right thing. Don't put stuff out there that the Harpers can attack over a year before the election is due. Mulcair is basically doing the same thing. Both are keeping their cards close to their vest if not invisible. Come A lot closer to the election and this stuff will appear.

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  10. To understand my previous comment you need to have seen last Friday's Power and Politics show hosted by Rosie Barton. The show had got hold of a Govt poll on marijuana which had some very interesting figures. Like 70% of respondents wanted it decriminalize. There where the usual members from the three main parties to comment. The CPC went first and IMMEDIATELY attacked Justin even though the poll was a CPC creation. And it's not working as media scanning shows.

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    Replies
    1. Peter,

      Was the poll commissioned by the Government or the Conservative party? If it was commissioned by the Government it was not a "CPC creation".

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    2. bede for Heaven's sake. The CPC IS the Govt at this point in time and thus wears whatever is done in the Govt's name !!

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    3. Peter,

      There is an important distinction. Polls commissioned by the Government are funded through tax dollars polls commissioned by political parties are funded privately. They are not the same and therefore, your previous comment is contradictory.

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    4. Rather bede your attempt to deflect responsibility is just to obvious. Dept." and Govt's do what their masters say. This was a CPC/Govt poll. Accept the responsibility.

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    5. It was a Government poll not a Conservative party poll. That is why it was released because it is public information! The poll was commissioned by the Department of Justice and has nothing to do with the Conservative party.

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    6. Albert read my reply to bede. It doesn't matter if it is a Dept poll or not. The governing party wears it !! The Minister always had the prerogative to cancel it!!

      Thus using it to attack Justin just smells !!

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    7. Peter,

      You are incorrect. An important distinction exists between party, individuals, the State and Government. Others wise the party would be responsible for the actions of the State and individuals. Is it fair blame young Justin Trudeau for the failure of the Dieppe Raid in 1942 simply because the Liberal party was Government during the Second World War? That is where your inability to understand nuance leads-"the governing party wears it". Trudeau went into a mosque that in the past recruited for al-Qaida; can we assume all Liberals support the Islamic State and their human rights abuses? You say no difference exist! "The party wears it"! It is a bizarre and prejudiced approach and does not conform to the facts, philosophy or execution of our system of government.

      The minister may not have either the ability (due to contracts, bidding process etc...) to cancel the poll or the knowledge to do so. It is very unlikely the minister would be aware of a trivial matter such as a poll. Departments do polls on a regular basis for all sorts of reasons, often to coordinate policy approaches or focus on areas that need reinforcement. You have no idea whether MacKay or Nicholson knew of this poll or not. A rather weak effort to cover up your mistake.

      I think you should apologize to bede and myself for your tone if not your errors.

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    8. No Albert I am correct all you are trying to do is deflect blame from the party responsible . It's just too transparent on your part.

      The party in power is ALWAYS forced to accept blame for anything the Govt may do. But in this case the blame is not for the poll but how the CPC spokesperson handled it. So the blame remains with the CPC !!

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    9. Peter,

      Please don't accuse me of trying to deflect responsibility. The only person deflecting responsibility is you by refusing to admit you either do not know the answer to my question or your inability to admit your mistake.

      Why you would argue party and Government are the same is beyond me but, in this case you have placed your un-swevering loyalty to the Liberal party above common sense, history or the truth. I hope you are O.K.

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    10. No bede as your response shows you just cannot accept that the CPC can do anything wrong. Read my last response to Albert and learn.

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    11. Once again another personal attack from you Peter and another example of your inability to recognise and admit your mistakes.

      There is nothing wrong with conducting a poll both governments and political parties commission them all the time. I wanted clarification because I was suspicious the Conservatives would waste money on a poll about weed. Instead of admitting you didn't know the answer to my question you obfuscate behind nonsense. Then you intone I should learn; come on you don't understand the different between the Government, the State, the Ministry and political parties-this is rudimentary political science! Of course I shouldn't presume that you were educated much less still learning!

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    12. Peter,

      There is nothing wrong with either the Government or a political party commissioning a poll.

      Delete
  11. No bede you don't learn that the ruling party has the responsibility. Since I've observed your recalcitrance for quite a while welcome to the "Don't Respond" list!! I recommend others put you there to.

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    Replies
    1. Responsibility for what?

      They released the poll information-it is not a secret the DoJ commissioned then released the poll. This matter is unlikely to come before the Commons for a vote-where a Government's responsibility is reaffirmed.

      You are simply writing nonsense.

      Delete

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