Saturday, November 5, 2016

Hillary Clinton has the lead for the final weekend, but will it hold through Tuesday?

As the American election campaign rolls into its final weekend before Tuesday's vote, Hillary Clinton remains the favourite to become the next U.S. president. Her edge over Donald Trump remains narrow but her recent decline in the polls seems to have halted.

Nevertheless, the margin she enjoys over the Republican nominee remains small enough that it could be overturned over these final days.

As of Friday's Presidential Poll Tracker update, Clinton has the support of 47.4 per cent of decided voters, compared to 44.5 per cent for Trump. That margin of 2.9 points is far more comfortable than the 1.9-point margin she had in the polls at the beginning of this week.

You can read the rest of this article here.


  1. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a five-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the latest Washington Post-ABC Tracking Poll released early on Sunday.

    1. I don't believe it. I think the L.A. Times poll closer to the truth. Here we are the penultimate day of the campaign and she hasn't sealed the deal. It's not going to happen. American pronounced their verdict on Hilary in 2008.

      Clinton's policy toward Syria; Implement a no-fly zone; would lead to a direct confrontation with Russia and the very real possibility of war if the USAF shot down a Russian plane. She is the bigger threat, never mind the corruption.

    2. explained the LA Times poll - that it surveys the same people every time. So if the original sample wasn't representative (as happens with polls sometimes), then the poll will never be representative no matter how often it is redone. That's why pollsters try to survey different people each time.

      It also weighs respondents based on how they say they voted in 2012 (which as 538 points out, is unreliable as poll respondents tend to report voting in higher numbers than actual voter turnout).

      So when the LA Times surveys the same young, black Trump supporter over and over, it ends up reporting 10% higher black and youth support for Trump than any other pollster.

      In sum, while the polls might all be off (which happens), the LA Times is not doing something right that all the other polling firms are doing wrong. If the Times poll does end up being more accurate, it will be by pure coincidence.

    3. You need to re-visit the LA Times Day Break poll methodology, you do not accurately describe what they were trying to do.

  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

  3. Clinton's narrow lead holds steady
    Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead over Donald Trump going into the final 48 hours, amid strong signs she has arrested the momentum Trump carried into the final week of the campaign.

    Three national surveys released Sunday morning all show Clinton with a low-to-mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, with Clinton either holding steady or reversing last week’s movement in the polls toward the GOP nominee.
    Nov. 6

    1. it's about states not polls. Michigan is now a toss up-should be solidly Democratic. New Hampshire is leaning Trump-once again should be solidly Democratic even New Mexico is a toss-up! Trump hasn't been in Florida for a few days-that is how confident they are!

      The polls that show Hilary with 80% of the Latino vote are laughable. Hispanics are predominantly Catholic and among Hispanics about half are practicing. Most of these people will not vote for Hilary because of her pro-choice stance.

    2. WGS,

      First off, your status as a Trump supporter should lead to a name change, considering that I doubt the many labour leaders that took part in the Winnipeg General Strike would appreciate you taking their name in vain.

      Secondly, where are you getting your numbers from? Michigan is still a fairly solid Democratic state. The closest Trump got to winning it recently were ties in three polls in the last month, and one of those I believe is Ipsos' fifty state poll which is fairly notorious for its small sample sizes and odd results (Clinton winning Kansas, Trump winning Vermont). The other one is Google Consumer surveys, which also has crazy results. All other polls show Clinton leaders ranging from 1% lead to a 19% lead, with the recent average about 4%. Now, that's a close race to be sure, but it isn't "tossup" territory, especially when the lead is still reliably for Clinton.

      The last time Trump led or was even close to Clinton in New Mexico was the end of August.

      Florida is a genuine toss-up, but Trump's campaign also thinks they can win or come close in Miami-Dade, which currently has something like a 150K lead in early votes for Democrats.

      New Hampshire actually oddly enough not trending for Trump was much as Iowa or Ohio are. Why would you use NH as your example when those other, much better states exist? Maybe you should actually do some work, I can be a better Trump shill than you.

      80% of Catholics voted for centre-left, pro-choice parties in Canada in the last, I don't know, six elections? Not every voter decides based on their religion. The fact that 72% of Hispanics voted for the pro-choice Obama in 2012 should already show that to you, but oh my gosh 80%? What a leap.

      In conclusion, delete your account.

    3. Kyle H.

      Wow! You are trying to intimidate me with threats! It is you who should delete your account-Disgusting.

      If 72% of Hispanics voted for Obama then 28% did not-that proves my point. I wrote: "among Hispanics about half are practicing (Catholics)". Most of these people will not vote for Hilary because of her pro-choice stance". So if half of Hispanics are practcing Catholics (50%) and most of these will not vote Hilary (>25%) or 28%. What is your problem-Can't handle the truth? You claim to be a psephologist, you can't be a very good one as your mathematics skills are sub par, particularly addition and subtraction.

      Thirdly, Real Clear Politics has Michigan a toss-up and Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire as toss-ups trending for Trump and New Mexico as a toss-up leaning Democratic. So whatever you say is fine, I believe Real Clear Politics over you. Better track record frankly.

      I will not ask you to delete your account because I believe in free speech. I do suggest, however, you spend some time at a finishing school to develop manners.

      Don't lecture me on the Winnipeg General Strike: What do you know of it? Absolutely nothing! If you did you would not be a Liberal sycophant.

      I am confident if they were alive today Fred Dixon and J.S. Woodsworth and the other leaders would have far more affinity for Trump's policy of confronting unfair Chinese trade practices and returning well paid jobs to America (We could argue how successful his proposals are likely to be, that is fairgame). Furthermore, they would oppose Hilary's policy of globalisation that effectively lowers wages and eliminate jobs and the middle class in the Western World while moving manufacturing and an increasing number of other industries from customer services to electronics to insurance into low wage Asia.

      The truth is Kyle H, you well understand my previous post was close to the truth. Hilary may pull it out but, she may not. Things are not going well for her campaign with a day left she has not closed the deal. Trump for all his mistakes is still in it and has momentum. Hilary has the same old same old that had her husband impeached, eliminated millions of well paying American jobs and a capitalist culture that is destabilising and polluting our world, our economy and the environment. Change is Donald Trump. Continued elitism and rule from and by the 1 per cent is Hilary! Never mind the corruption or her secret e-mail server. Never mind her dangerous foreign policy stance toward Russia!

      Finally, nothing in my previous comments commits me to be a Trump supporter. Sadly, your Liberal self-righteousness and arrogance has made you read something in my comment that is not there. We could both play the inference game. I could infer so many unflattering things about you from your comments should I choose.

      In conclusion, for the good of Canada Let's all hope Trump wins!

      "Hilary...has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic Catholic voters (84% vs. 12%)".

    5. So many of you were ungraciously wrong.

  4. I recommend all of you go here and get the real truth !!

  5. Éric,

    Hope Hillary Rodham Clinton wins but don't like polls that show her leading that are within the margin of error. It leaves the impression that her support is slowly sinking to the benefit of the most unqualified candidate in presidential history. Common sense suggests that Trump should be way back but he isn't. That's why an upset is within the realm of the possible tomorrow night.

  6. Whar Yukon election coverage?

    1. Liberal won 11 seats, Yukon Party 6, NDP 2. On 39%, 33% and 26% of the popular vote. Yukon Greens managed only .8%.

      I am always amazed how close elections are in the Yukon, the Liberals and NDP were only separated by 2400 votes.

  7. Florida reports 6.4 million early votes, 49.7% of registered voters, 87,000 more by registered Democrats than GOP.

    There's about 1,200,000 votes from independents. Until the votes are counted, can't say for sure, but turnout tends to help Democrats. Florida will likely be a squeaker, but so far looking a smidgen better for Democrats.

    In Nevada, Hispanic early turnout was massive. Clinton can squeak through without FL, NC, NH provided she wins PA, MI and NV.


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