Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Hillary Clinton's lead dwindles to 2 points in wake of FBI's email probe


Little more than a week ago, Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in national polling by six points or more. Panic was setting in among Republicans that they would not only lose the White House, but maybe the House and Senate, too. Now, with only days to go before election day, the gap is just two points — and closing.

But despite Trump's improving odds, he still faces a stiff challenge in cobbling together enough states to give him a winning electoral map. Nevertheless, the momentum is not heading in Clinton's direction, a shift that was building in the polls before her trouble with emails re-emerged on Friday.

You can read the rest of this article here.

9 comments:

  1. Would not a more plausible explanation of the difference (beyond normal MOE) between state and national polls be that:
    A) there are no state level tracking polls.
    B) It takes considerably longer to accumulate a critical mass of state level polls to move the polling average.

    This would tend to make state level polling more consistent and less responsive both to the headline of the day (which is forgotten tomorrow), as well as an actual shift in the trajectory of the election.

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    Replies
    1. There are state-level tracking polls, from Ipsos, Google Consumer Surveys, and SurveyMonkey. Morning Consult has also done some if I'm not mistaken. However, only a one or two of these are daily trackers, which may make a difference.

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    2. At this point there's probably a little more volatility in the less-often-polled states because they are less likely to have reached campaign saturation. Voters must be less engaged in New York, Texas and California and so a bit more subject to vote swings than, say, Nevada where every single voter must have received a personal visit from Trump, Clinton, Michelle Obama and Rudy Giuliani by now.

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  2. I have to wonder just how much of this shift is due to that Republican, Comey, announcing the Email investigation again ??

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    1. Peter,

      It seems that that Republican was allergic to the potential of a perjury charge regarding his Congressional testimony. (Damned if he did, and if he didn't.)

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    2. I think he was given a direct order by the RNC !!

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  3. November 3, 2016 | by CHRIS KAHN

    Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump by 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Wednesday, the same advantage the Democratic presidential nominee held before an FBI announcement that reignited the controversy about her email practices.
    Capitol Hill Blue

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    Replies
    1. Peter,

      I think Trump will win, thanks to five words: Commander in Chief, sexism, misogyny.

      Hope I'm out to lunch!

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  4. It's a mess now Ron and so close I don't think we can call a winner before the votes are counted !!

    Yeah I hope you are wrong to !!

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