Thursday, November 17, 2016

The Pollcast: Were the U.S. polls right, wrong - or somewhere in-between?

The results of the U.S. presidential vote came as a surprise to many. Almost every national poll gave Hillary Clinton a lead over Donald Trump and the polls also suggested she held the lead in enough states to win the election.

Instead, though Trump lost the popular vote, he won the electoral college and will be America's next president.

As mail-in votes continue to be counted in Democratic-friendly states, Clinton's edge over Trump in the popular vote will likely grow — and the national error in the polls will shrink. Still, at the state-level the error was significant enough to up-end expectations.

What did the polls miss? Was there a problem with how polls — and the uncertainty intrinsic to the science — were interpreted? And where does the media and the polling industry go from here?

Joining me on this week's episode of The Pollcast is pollster David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.

You can listen to the podcast heresubscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here.