Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Monthly Picture: February 2009

The model looks at all polls taken recently that still have some weight. This can extend back several months. I also include past electoral results to "ground" the polling numbers. However, this means the projection is always relatively conservative and doesn't swing widely due to a few recent polls.

I thought it would be interesting to look at what my projection would be based solely on polls taken within the same month. Since March isn't over and it is possible a new poll will come out, I'll start with February. It will also give a basis of comparison with the March results.

The average national support each party received in the four February polls (totaling 3,881 interviews) was:

Conservatives - 34.0%
Liberals - 32.0%
New Democrats - 15.5%
Greens - 9.3%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.8%

Now, for each region, here are the average popular support followed by the seat projection based on those numbers:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (one poll)

Conservatives - 48.0% - 27
Liberals - 24.0% - 8
New Democrats - 20.0% - 1
Greens - 6.0% - 0

ALBERTA (one poll)

Conservatives - 70.0% - 28
Liberals - 17.0% - 0
Greens - 7.0% - 0
New Democrats - 4.0% - 0

PRAIRIES (one poll)

Conservatives - 55.0% - 23
Liberals - 22.0% - 4
New Democrats - 15.0% - 1
Greens - 8.0% - 0

ONTARIO (four polls)

Liberals - 40.5% - 56
Conservatives - 34.8% - 38
New Democrats - 16.3% - 12
Greens - 9.3% - 0

QUEBEC (four polls except Strategic Counsel for BQ and GPC)

Bloc Quebecois - 40.3% - 51
Liberals - 25.8% - 16
Conservatives - 16.8% - 7
New Democrats - 11.8% - 1
Greens - 4.7% - 0

ATLANTIC (two polls)

Liberals - 47.5% - 24
Conservatives - 29.0% - 6
New Democrats - 22.0% - 2
Greens - 2.0% - 0

So, with these numbers (and assuming 2 wins in the North for the Liberals and 1 for the Conservatives), the February projection is:

Conservatives - 130
Liberals - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 17

So, the February results show stronger performances by the Liberals and the Bloc, but weaker for the NDP and the Conservatives. Once March is finished, I imagine the projection for that month will be even closer.

2 comments:

  1. Interesting, that with all the talk of a Liberal resurgence in Quebec, even the latest results would actually give the Bloc more seats.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Liberal vote in Quebec is very concentrated. They have to do much better in order to really start challenging the Bloc outside of Montreal.

    With the Conservatives now more or less out of the picture, it just makes it easier for the Bloc outside of Montreal, since it had been a Conservative-Bloc contest in the regions during the last two elections.

    ReplyDelete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.