Monday, March 30, 2009

New Poll: Léger Marketing

Léger Marketing released a new poll today, taken between March 18 and March 23 and involving 1,508 interviews. Here are the national results:

Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 34%
New Democrats - 14%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%
Greens - 6%

And now Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 42%
Liberals - 33%
Conservatives - 12%
New Democrats - 10%
Greens - 3%

And Ontario:

Liberals - 45%
Conservatives - 35%
New Democrats - 12%
Greens - 8%

The only other regional poll worth mentioning is that for British Columbia:

Conservatives - 37%
Liberals - 29%
New Democrats - 24%
Greens - 8%

The poll also asked who Canadians felt was the best to handle the economy. Michael Ignatieff got 41% compared to Stephen Harper's 33%. As to who would be the best Prime Minister, Ignatieff got 31%, Harper got 28%, and Jack Layton got 15%. Taking this with the voting intentions, this is not a good poll for the Conservatives.

The projection has changed as well, with all parties gaining or losing seats. The Conservatives are down two to 134, thanks to a seat loss in Ontario and Quebec each. The Liberals are up two to 105, gaining a seat in Ontario and the Prairies. The NDP is down one to 19, losing a seat in the Prairies, and the Bloc is up one to 50. Nationally, the popular vote has changed:

Liberals +0.3
Bloc -0.0
Greens -0.1
New Democrats -0.1
Conservatives -0.2

This Léger Marketing poll closely follows the recent Angus-Reid Strategies poll which put the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead-heat, with the Liberals given the edge. So, this would seem to confirm the situation hinted at in the ARS poll.

In the first week of April, I'll be doing a "March projection", which gives the seat projection when only the March numbers are considered.

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