Monday, March 9, 2009

New Ipsos-Reid Poll

Ipsos-Reid released a new poll this evening, but it is a little problematic. Ipsos-Reid requires a subscription to read their polls, and so I have to glean what information I can from news reports, which are notoriously incomplete. Because of this, I have been able to update the national popular vote projection, but that's it. All of the other information is incomplete, so I can't enter it into the system. I can, however, report about it here.

Nationally, here are the results:

Conservatives - 37%
Liberals - 33%
New Democrats - 12%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 8%

The numbers here are more or less within the numbers we've seen over the last few months. The NDP result, however, is the lowest since an Ipsos-Reid poll in December. For the projection, it has bumped the Liberals up about half a point and the NDP down half a point.

The regional breakdown mostly mentioned only the Liberals and Conservatives, but here they are anyway:

QUEBEC

Bloc Quebecois - 41%
Liberals - 27%
Conservatives - 16%

BRITISH COLUMBIA

Conservatives - 50%
Liberals - 26%

ALBERTA

Conservatives - 70%
Liberals - 15%

ONTARIO

Liberals - 42%
Conservatives - 37%

PRAIRIES

Conservatives - 49%
Liberals - 28%

ATLANTIC CANADA

Liberals - 41%
Conservatives 29%

There are no real surprises in these numbers. Were I able to enter them into the model, there wouldn't be much of an effect.

Once I have some more information (and if any of you obtain it, please contact me!) I can update the regional projections and so get some seat projections. Until then, this is what we have to work with.

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