Thursday, March 26, 2009

New Poll: CROP

CROP released a new poll today, taken between March 12 and March 23 and involving 1,001 interviews. The poll concerned Quebec only. The result:

Bloc Quebecois - 35%
Liberals - 30%
Conservatives - 18%
New Democrats - 13%
Greens - 4%

The Bloc is down in this poll, but this seems to be a continuing trend. The Liberals look steady, but the NDP and Conservative numbers are higher than what has been the norm this month. Good news for them.

The poll also asked who would make the best Prime Minister. Michael Ignatieff is the favourite with 35%, followed by Jack Layton at 22% and Stephen Harper at 19%. The Conservatives really need to improve their image in Quebec if they still want to compete.

The poll was also broken down regionally and linguistically. In the region of and around Montreal, the contest is between the Bloc (33%) and the Liberals (32%). The NDP (15%) and Conservatives (14%) aren't in it, but the NDP seem to be back in the game in Outremont. In the region around Quebec, the Conservatives look likely to maintain their seats, as they top the poll with 32%, followed closely by the Bloc (30%). The Liberals (24%) are competitive but unlikely to take a seat. In the regions outside Quebec and Montreal, the Bloc has a solid lead (38%) over the Liberals (29%) and the Conservatives (19%).

Linguistically, the Bloc has the francophone vote with 41%, followed by the Liberals at 27% and the Conservatives at 17%. The non-francophone vote is solidly Liberal at 46%, followed by the Conservatives at 22% and the NDP at 16%. The Bloc is fifth at 6%.

The projection has changed. The relatively strong Conservative result and the weaker Bloc result has caused a seat trade between the two parties, putting the Conservatives at 136 nationally and the Bloc at 49. In terms of popular vote, the Liberals and NDP gained 0.3 points and the Conservatives gained 0.1, while the Bloc lost 0.3 and the Greens lost 0.2.

The poll also included a provincial result (40% PQ, 33% PLQ, 10% ADQ), so you should head over to my Quebec provincial projection part of the site (the Quebec flag on the right side of the page).