Friday, March 13, 2009

New Harris-Decima Poll

Harris-Decima has released a new poll, taken between February 26 and March 8 and involving 2,000 interviews. So that makes two large polls in recent days. But the result here is very different from the last two Ipsos-Reid and Strategic Counsel polls we've seen. The national results:

Liberals - 33%
Conservatives - 32%
New Democrats - 14%
Greens - 10%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%

We have the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat, which is a little different than the slight lead by the Conservatives that was reported in the two other recent polls. This does confirm, however, the weakness of the NDP.

The regional results were also interesting. In British Columbia, the Conservatives are at 38% and the Liberals at 32%, far closer than what we've seen. The NDP is only at 19%, which would be worrisome for them. In Alberta, the Conservatives were listed at 49%, which is low for them.

The Quebec results:

Bloc Quebecois - 39%
Liberals - 32%
Conservatives - 13%
New Democrats - 9%
Greens - 6%

This confirms the Bloc numbers we've seen over the last few weeks, hovering around 40%. The Liberal result, however, is rather strong and the Conservative result gives further evidence that they are in trouble in Quebec.

The Ontario results:

Liberals - 38%
Conservatives - 34%
New Democrats - 13%
Greens - 13%

The NDP is really struggling in Ontario, the only place they could make some real gains. Jack Layton has to be worried about this. Having Thomas Mulcair from Quebec as the deputy party leader is good and all, but the NDP isn't going to grow in Quebec.

The projection itself has changed as well. The Liberals have risen to 101 seats and the NDP has slipped once again, now to 20. The seat loss comes in British Columbia. The +/- projection change nationally is as follows:

Greens +0.4
Liberals +0.3
Bloc Quebecois -0.1
New Democrats -0.2
Conservatives -0.5

Regional changes have been substantial in some places. The NDP and Liberals have more or less traded a point, to the benefit of Michael Ignatieff. In Ontario, the Conservatives have dropped 0.3 and the Liberals have risen 0.1, which is significant in that the two parties are now tied in Ontario. The NDP is down half a point. The Liberals have gained 0.7 in Quebec while the Conservatives have slipped by 0.6 to below 18%.

So, the Coles Notes for this poll are the following: the Conservatives should be concerned everywhere, especially in Quebec. The Liberals should be satisfied, especially in Quebec, but not over-confident. The NDP should be in crisis mode, and the Bloc is steady.