Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Progression of the Projection

This chart shows the trend in projections this site has made since January.


  1. I'm sorry but your seat projection is not very accurate regarding Quebec. You can be sure that out of the ten conservative MPs elected in last October, every single one of them will get reelected in the next election, while 18 for the liberals seems a little bit too optimistic. They still have a big slope ahead of them.

    I'd say the Tories can expect, according to your previsions, 138 seats, whereas the Grits are down to 101. For now.

  2. Considering the Conservatives have lost a lot of support in Quebec, I think it is highly unlikely that the Conservatives will win their 10 seats again in Quebec. Lawrence Cannon in Pontiac would be in danger, as would Denis Lebel in Roberval and some of the Conservatives in Quebec City. Projecting them to lose four seats isn't outlandish, considering they've been polling as low as 10%-13% (down from 20% in the election).

    Projecting that the Liberals will gain four seats, considering they are polling as high as 30%-33% in Quebec rather than the 24% they received during the election, is not too optimistic.


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