Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Kickstarter Update #4 - We did it!

Yesterday was an incredible day of generosity, as we bounded from 72% funding to over 100%! That means that Tapping into the Pulse will be written and published as an ebook! Thanks so much to all of you for pledging and helping to spread the word about this project. I had worried that my funding goal was too ambitious and had figured it would come down to the wire, but I'm blown away that we reached our goal in just 21 days.

I'm really touched, as it validates the work I've put into this site over the last five years. It is terrific to see that there is support for this sort of independent work in Canada. Thanks so much!

So that's it then, right?

No! Though the funding goal has been reached, there is still plenty of incentive to keep the ticker going:

Pledging $10 or more secures a Kickstarter backers-only edition of Tapping into the Pulse, at least one month before it is set loose on the public. That means reading this eBook at the end of February (the deadline I have set) instead of the end of March or beginning of April.

Pledging $10 also means that you'll save money! When the ebook is released to the general public on Amazon, and potentially elsewhere, it will be priced at more than the minimum $10 pledge. So, reserve your backers-only edition and save!

There are still plenty of ridings to be claimed for a historical profile that will be posted on this site before the 2015 federal election. A pledge of $75 gets you the riding history of your choice and a pledge of $100 means I will toil over an analysis topic of your choice. Put me to work!

And then there is the warm and fuzzy feeling that you're guaranteed (note: not a guarantee) to get when you pledge. It means you support independent polling analysis and the continued operation of this site. And, it also means more going to me: Kickstarter takes an impressively small portion of every pledge while Amazon, on the other hand, takes a much larger share (we're talking three to seven times as much)!

I think we're too late in the funding period, and too close to the holidays, to reach any reasonable stretch goal. But there are plenty of reasons why you should pledge before the clock strikes midnight on Dec. 27.

The cover poll

Yesterday, I posted three cover mock-ups that were created by the good folks at IndieBookLauncher.com, who have generously donated their services to the project. I asked for your opinions, and they are in. Your choice was overwhelming. It wasn't even close. And some of you had, er, particularly strong opinions.

The cover on the left received 85% of the fake ballots cast in this informal, unscientific "poll". The cover on the right - which was the most controversial entry - received 9% support. The cover in the middle, which was actually my favourite (it reminded me of Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, which is probably why I wouldn't have selected it), received just 6% support.

Now, I may have inadvertently biased the sample when I posted on Twitter that the cover on the left was already emerging as the most popular. There was a lesson in how not to conduct a poll there. Nevertheless, the cover on the left follows most in the style of ThreeHundredEight, so it makes sense that this ebook - a product and extension of ThreeHundredEight - should follow in the same style.

Thanks for voting! The cover on the left will be the cover for Tapping into the Pulse. I'll post a revised, refined draft of it later in the week.

Again, thank you so much for your generosity in this Kickstarter drive. I'll do my best with the book to live up to the awesome standard that has been set by you all.

We'll get back to your regularly scheduled polling analysis shortly. We just need a new poll to come out... *crickets*

15 comments:

  1. WOW !! Terrific Eric

    Next ??

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  2. Super. And I think hupfield made a good point in your last post : "But chop the chart image down to only cover the 2013 period."

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  3. Congrats. I hope you'll consider doing this as part of a series.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks! Yes, I hope to do this again for 2014.

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  4. If there are no polls around, maybe look at what-ifs? What if we had Australia's model for the Senate? What if we use Scotland's electoral system?

    Dunno...

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  5. Hi Eric

    Not to harp, but is the success making you consider a hard copy magazine/book edition given this success, particularly for the upcoming summer months?

    I enjoy the blog format for online reading, but generally don't read in depth analysis online. Perhaps the people at the Walrus (to which a subscribe) or Nate Silver's new project can help get it printed. It would be great summer reading for number geeks like me.

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    Replies
    1. That would be great, but I'm trying to keep things as simple and cost-free as possible for the time being.

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  6. Sondage de la firme Ekos, 19 décembre 2013
    Au Québec (806 répondants):
    PLC: 29%
    BQ: 26,8%
    NPD: 23,1%
    PCC: 11%

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    Replies
    1. Wow. That's bad news bears for the NDP if it's true.

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    2. Ryan, the poll of likely voters gives a three way tie - only 2 points between the three parties...

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    3. I'm not particularly impressed by EKOS's likely voter model - it simply drops those who did not vote in 2011 and weighs the remainder by how they voted in the last election.

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    4. I agree Eric.

      The experience in BC is that NDP supporters have a tendency to vote less frequently than other parties. This caused one pollster, as I am sure everyone remembers, to discard the 18-34 cohort entirely from their sample.

      It seems unlikely to me that with all the Senate shenanigans etc... the three parties would be tied.

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    5. Chimurenga - the NDP needs to do well in Quebec to put up decent seat totals. Even if EKOS' crapsack likely voter model is correct, those Quebec numbers won't do them any favours.

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    6. Ryan,

      I agree but we should give credit where it is due. Throughout 2013 the Dippers have polled above their traditional high water mark of 20%. Having said that if they don't do better in 2014 they're headed for third party status. The numbers in Quebec must be particularly worrying at 23% they would be lucky to grab 10 seats.

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