2013 has been a remarkable year in politics and political polling, with the Liberals returning from the dead, the Senate scandal shaking things up, and the surprise result of the provincial election in British Columbia. New provincial party leaders have been named in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador, with Justin Trudeau taking over the federal Liberals and Daniel Paillé bowing out of the Bloc Québécois.
Tapping into the Pulse: Political public opinion polling in Canada, 2013 is an eBook I'm working on that was successfully funded on Kickstarter last week. Thanks to those who pledged! The Kickstarter drive ends on December 27, so you still have a few more days to reserve your advance copy (to be delivered one month before the book goes on sale), contribute to this website, and save a little money off the sticker price. It will be a comprehensive record of the year in politics and particularly in polling, and I hope you'll enjoy it!
With the year coming to a close, let's take a look here at how the federal parties have done in the polls over the course of 2013. We'll also compare their performances to how they did in 2011 and 2012 (I did this last year as well). The differences are remarkable.
As you can see from the above, most of the change that has taken place nationwide occurred just after Trudeau became leader. Since then, the three parties have generally been in stasis. But the trends are looking negative for the Conservatives.
What will 2014 hold? We certainly aren't done with the Senate, and the Bloc Québécois will choose a new leader, likely in the spring. Apart from that: events, dear boy, events. With Thomas Mulcair begin to regain the support he lost when Justin Trudeau became Liberal leader? Will Trudeau be able to hold on to that support? What influence will the likely elections in Ontario and Quebec have on the federal scene, particularly if the Parti Québécois is given a majority?
It should be an interesting year. I hope to cover it with the next annual edition of Tapping into the Pulse! This will likely be the last post of 2013, so I wanted to take this opportunity to wish you all a safe and happy holidays, and all the best in 2014. Thanks for reading, see you next year!