Click here to read an explanation of the new model, how it performed in 2012, and what to keep in mind when looking at these numbers.
Click here to read the detailed analyses from the main site concerning the Alberta election and new polls.
Note that due to the Liberals not running a full slate of candidates, the projection adjusts the polls to reflect this fact by reducing the support of the Liberals according to their proportion of candidates. Support for other parties is also based on the number of candidates, rather than the average of the polls.
VOTE AND SEAT PROJECTION
A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probabilities are calculated can be found here.
The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability for the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of error polls have made in recent elections. The probabilities are based on how polls have differed from election results in the past.
The follow chart breaks the projection down by region.
By including polls in the projection, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. However, the weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account.
These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.