Thursday, September 10, 2015

August 2015 federal polling averages

As we are knee-deep into the campaign, I won't do a deep analysis of the federal averages from August. Instead, I'll just post the information here for consistency.

The New Democrats led in August with 33.7%, followed by the Conservatives at 29.1% and the Liberals at 27.1%.

The Greens averaged 5.1%, while the Bloc Québécois was at 4.1%. Another 0.9% said they would vote for another party or independent candidate.

The New Democrats led in British Columbia and Quebec, the Conservatives were ahead in Alberta and the Prairies, and the Liberals were in front in Atlantic Canada. The race in Ontario was about as close as it gets, but the Tories were narrowly in front.

With these levels of support, the New Democrats would have likely won 131 seats, the Conservatives 116, and the Liberals 90. The Greens would have won one seat and the Bloc none.

Now back to the campaign!


  1. That's the first month-to-month gain for the Liberals since July 2014 (when they were 10 points higher).

  2. Why is there never an indication of the undecided, hangup, refused to answer in these notices. I am certain that 100% of the calls/interviews were not answered. Some indication would provide a level of understanding that isn't there in your reports.

    1. 100%! That would make it difficult to gather sample.

      Undecideds are treated and recorded so different from one poll to the next that it is futile to try to 'average' those numbers out. Generally speaking, 10% to 20% of respondents are undecided, will not vote, or refuse to answer the voting intention question,

  3. The projections for August, using my model, with the difference compared to July in parenthesis.

    125 NDP (+5)
    124 CPC (-5)
    86 LPC (+3)
    2 BQ (-3)
    1 GPC (even)

    By region, it gives:

    20 LPC (+3)
    7 NDP (+1)
    5 CPC (-4)

    59 NDP (+5)
    11 LPC (-1)
    6 CPC (-1)
    2 BQ (-3)

    54 CPC (-4)
    38 LPC (+1)
    29 NDP (+3)

    16 CPC (+4)
    6 NDP (-4)
    6 LPC (even)

    27 CPC (even)
    4 NDP (even)
    3 LPC (even)

    British Columbia
    19 NDP (even)
    15 CPC (even)
    7 LPC (even)
    1 GPC (even)

    1 NDP (even)
    1 CPC (even)
    1 LPC (even)


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