Friday, September 18, 2015

2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 7

So last week wasn't the tipping point. It seems we're back to a three-way race, and maybe the closest point of it so far in this campaign.

Week 7: NDP 31.4% LPC 30.0% CPC 29.6% GPC 5.5% BQ 3.1%
Week 6: NDP 31.7% LPC 30.3% CPC 29.1% GPC 4.9% BQ 3.5%
Week 5: NDP 32.4% LPC 29.9% CPC 27.2% GPC 5.1% BQ 4.1%
Week 4: NDP 33.9% CPC 28.4% LPC 27.9% GPC 5.0% BQ 3.8%
Week 3: NDP 32.7% CPC 29.4% LPC 28.0% GPC 5.1% BQ 3.9%
Week 2: NDP 31.8% CPC 29.8% LPC 27.5% GPC 5.4% BQ 4.6%
Week 1: NDP 34.7% CPC 29.6% LPC 26.8% BQ 4.6% GPC 4.0%

Friday, September 18, 2015

- I wrote about that internal NDP poll showing Justin Trudeau trailing in his own riding. Then the Montreal Gazette and Mainstreet Research went and scooped me with their own poll for the riding.

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have been updated.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to their last independent three day sample, a drop of 1.9 for the Tories, a gain of 1.4 for the Liberals, and an uptick of 0.9 for the NDP. So, par for the course.

- Riding polls from Forum for University–Rosedale, Ajax, and Toronto Centre. Note that the Toronto Centre and University–Rosedale polls were conducted in August.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

- My analysis of today's numbers.

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have been updated..

- It is polling day, apparently. Polls from Mainstreet (BC only), EKOS, and Environics. Something for everyone.

- On the latest episode of the Pollcast, I talk with Shachi Kurl of the Angus Reid Institute. We go over her new poll comparing platform promises.

- I broke down the race in Atlantic Canada on Power and Politics last night. With maps!

- Today's Nanos shows virtually no change at all (we're talking well under a point per party) from their previous independent three-day sample. Forum's poll is looking more recognizable as the three-way race everyone is seeing, but it also means they have recorded a serious drop for the NDP and a modest increase for the Conservatives. And some B.C. riding polls from the Dogwood Initiative and Insights West.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have now been updated.

- In the first of a series of articles in which I will be breaking down the country region by region, I took a look at Atlantic Canada.

- Hier, sur Les voies du retour (1:18:30).

- Today's Nanos has another back-and-forth. But compared to its previous independent three-day poll, it is showing a 2.7-point drop for the Conservatives. Also, some interesting riding polls from Mainstreet Research for Ajax, Spadina–Fort York, and Calgary Confederation.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

- Yesterday's ridings to watch: Oakville and Oakville–North Burlington.

- Your daily Nanos and a new Ipsos. Nanos showing little change from its previous independent three-day poll, apart from a modest Liberal drop. Ipsos is showing the NDP down a little.

Monday, September 14, 2015

- A double-header for today's ridings to watch: Oakville and Oakville–North Burlington.

- On the latest episode of the Pollcast, guest Greg Lyle from Innovative Research Group breaks down his latest poll, going beyond the three-way race.

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have now been updated.

- I spoke about the three-way race and the differing polls on Power and Politics on Friday and on The House on Saturday.

- A few polls out this morning: from Nanos, Innovative, and Abacus. Three-way race across the board.