Friday, September 11, 2015

2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 6

Is this the tipping point? Or just the latest tipping point?

Below are the unadjusted averages of the polls conducted so far in the campaign, by week. I'll update Week 5 and 6 numbers as more come in.

Week 6: NDP 32.4% LPC 30.9% CPC 28.1% GPC 4.6% BQ 3.4%
Week 5: NDP 32.4% LPC 29.9% CPC 27.2% GPC 5.1% BQ 4.1%
Week 4: NDP 33.9% CPC 28.4% LPC 27.9% GPC 5.0% BQ 3.8%
Week 3: NDP 32.7% CPC 29.4% LPC 28.0% GPC 5.1% BQ 3.9%
Week 2: NDP 31.8% CPC 29.8% LPC 27.5% GPC 5.4% BQ 4.6%
Week 1: NDP 34.7% CPC 29.6% LPC 26.8% BQ 4.6% GPC 4.0%

A trend away from the Conservatives and towards the Liberals is definitely taking place in this campaign. But it seems that the narrative of the NDP-Liberal switchers does not particularly hold. Since Week 2, the New Democrats have been steady. The gains the Liberals have made seem to have come from the Conservatives.

Friday, September 11, 2015

- The Poll Tracker has been updated, along with the riding projections. My analysis of the weird day of polls is up on the CBC here, and you can catch my on Power and Politics on CBC News Network tonight.

- I also wanted to address how I am handling Nanos's daily tracking poll. Two things: every three days, there is a sample that is independent of a previous sample. When that happens, the latest poll and the poll done three days previously are given 100% of the weight they would normally get. Between those three days, though, every new poll is weighted at 100% and the intervening polls, which overlap with the newest numbers, are weighted at 33% of their normal weight. So what this means is that, right now, the September 8-10 poll is weighted at 100%, as is the September 4-6 poll. The polls in between those dates (there was no polling on the 7th) are currently given a weighting of 0%. When the next poll, the September 9-11 poll, comes out, the September 8-10 poll will be reduced to 33%, and the September 9-11 poll will get 100% weighting. This will continue until we reach the next three day sample of September 11-13, and so on, and so on.

- Two new polls this morning. Nanos is showing some movement, particularly compared to their last independent three-day sample. Compared to those numbers, the Conservatives are up significantly, the Liberals less so, and the NDP is steady. The other poll, by Forum, shows the NDP steady, the Liberals down, and the Conservatives up. Tory rebound? I'll be updating the Poll Tracker today, but haven't determined yet whether or not to wait for the EKOS poll that is supposed to be out in a few hours.

- In case you missed it yesterday, Saskatoon–University is my latest riding to watch.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

- Saskatoon–University is my latest riding to watch, a tight Conservative-NDP battle with a Liberal spoiler in 2015's new battleground of Saskatchewan.

- My analysis of the latest Nanos numbers, and how it has budged the Poll Tracker into a narrow Liberal lead in the seat projection. The riding projections have also been updated.

- I tallied the August federal numbers for the monthly averages. Doesn't matter much now, but will one day when we look at the long term trends.

- I mentioned it yesterday, but if you haven't noticed there is now an interactive map of the projections up on the projections page! Thanks very much to Stephen McMurtry, who put the map together.

- Hier, sur La croisée en Alberta: Des sièges conservateurs albertains en jeu.

- I did double podcasting duty yesterday. First, the new episode of the Pollcast is up, with guests David Akin (of Sun Media) and Christian Bourque (of Léger). We go over the state of the race at the midpoint of the campaign. I did the same, more briefly, with Chris Hall on his mid-week The House podcast.

- Your daily Nanos, with the Conservatives up.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

- Check out the riding projections page. There is a little surprise there for all of you!

- The Poll Tracker has been updated, and the riding projections as well.

- I did an overview of the refugee crisis polls for the CBC. The upshot? Conservatives less supportive of doing more than Liberal and NDP voters, which explain the difference in positioning of the three parties.

- New numbers from Nanos and Ipsos. The latter shows a stable, close race. Nanos shows the Liberals up, the NDP and Conservatives down.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

- Here's my analysis of where things stand as chapter one ends and chapter two begins.

- The Poll Tracker has been updated with the new Nanos poll. Shockingly for all the scoffing about Forum, Nanos's numbers are probably most similar to their most recent poll. Recall, those Forum numbers were 36-32-24. Nanos has it as 33-31-26.

199 comments:

  1. The poll figures do seem to finally show what many had expected : the Conservatives sliding down a slippery slope. Another sign of rising concern (even panic), Harper's promise/threat to Mansbridge* that even if the Conservatives lose by just one seat, he would resign. I wouldn't have thought Jim Prentice set an example worth emulating, but I guess I was wrong.

    * http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-peter-mansbridge-interview-stephen-harper-1.3218348

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He has to resign as Prime Minister for someone else to become Prime Minister. Every PM who loses an election resigns as PM.

      If he doesn't resign, then no one else can become Prime Minister until he's removed, and that's not as easy as it sounds.

      His position on resigning if he doesn't win is the only position he could hold that is consistent with the position he took regarding the threatened coalition in 2008.

      Delete
    2. If that happens, I wonder who would replace him. Brad Wall is the first person to come to my mind.

      Delete
    3. I don't think Harper is saying he will resign as MP, just that he will not be the PM if he loses.

      Delete
    4. But it's the fact that he even acknowledged the possibility of losing that is most significant.

      Delete
    5. That's right, he'd just step down at PM, not as a MP or head of the CPC. If/when he does it'll be a crowded field at first. I'd expect John Tory, Peter MacKay, Tony Clement, Jason Kenney, and Joe Oliver to all at least consider running.

      It's a toss-up if his stepping down as a MP after a loss would be better or worse for the CPC. These are Harper's Conservatives, and we've not seen where the party will go without him in the lead. The main risk is if the next government is short and they don't solidify the new leader quickly enough.

      Delete
    6. IMO, I highly doubt John Tory or Joe Oliver will run for the federal CPC leadership.

      John Tory just had his first major political victory when he was elected as TO mayor last year. Why would he give that up for a risky run for the CPC leadership.

      John Tory is also a centrist, he cannot appeal to the core CPC base. He won the mayoralty with the coalition of Liberals and Red Tories.

      Joe Oliver is not leadership material. Jason Kenney is fighting his battles on the finance portfolio. The only reason Oliver rose up the ranks in the government is because of this Bay Street connections and a thin CPC bench.

      Peter MacKay may run, but it seems he genuinely wants to get out of politics. I won't be surprised if Clement runs - but he won't win.

      I think Jason Kenney will enter the race as the front runner. He has strong ties to a lot of the important constituencies for the party. Timing may not work in Brad Wall's favour as SK is due for an election in Spring 2016. I suspect there might be a dark horse candidate such as Michael Chong that focuses on making the CPC a party of ethics and accountability again.

      Delete
    7. I don't know if Tory has federal ambitions, but if he does, it'll only be after he's made his mark in his current, still relatively new job. And at 75 years old, Oliver would be an implausible candidate. The others you mention I could believe (and in Kenney's case, I could not believe him choosing *not* to run).

      Delete
    8. And it's also striking that Harper felt it noteworthy to acknowledge that, having lost the election, he would not be entitled to remain PM.* I mean, with any other leader that would go without saying...

      *except under extraordinary circumstances, of course.

      Delete
    9. What about Jean Charest for the CPC leadership? Just want to see if others think that's plausible.

      Delete
    10. Jean Charest said he was leaving politics in 2012. He described how his three grown children and wife urged him to step down instead of running for a fourth term. He has a lot of political baggage as well, so I think he'd refrain.

      Delete
    11. Charest would guarantee Liberal/NDP victories going forward. Alberta would never support him - we'd get another fracturing of the right.

      Delete
    12. I thought his comment about a slim loss was far more interesting. He floated the notion of losing by one or two seats, and then regaining the PM office by convincing a few people to switch parties. That is part of why he said if he loses he will step down. He was promising not to pull some switcheroo and become prime minister again after a loss.

      I was shocked to hear that this was even possible. Though I would be even more shocked if anyone ever tried this. Whatever party pulled such a stunt would be over FOREVER at the very next election. Not even the committed Conservative base would stand for such a thing.

      Delete
    13. @Big Jay

      I didn't even think about the timing of the provincial election where Wall is concerned. That could be a bad break for the Tories, since as Wall is so popular in his province, he seems to me to be just the kind of person they need to pull them up.

      And I agree with others about Charest. Even if he were to show interest, it would be a bad fit. It might inspire Reform 2.0.

      Delete
    14. The only reason Harper is bring this issue up is as a means to set himself and his supporters up to rally against another possible coalition threat even if he wins a plurality of seats.

      The difference is that unlike the last time it happened and he pulled the plug on Parliament to stop it, a majority of Canadians are in favour of a coalition or some sort of agreement between the Liberals and NDP it as a means to dump Harper and the Conservatives.

      Delete
    15. @BigJay "I suspect there might be a dark horse candidate such as Michael Chong that focuses on making the CPC a party of ethics and accountability again."

      If Michael Chong was head of the CPC I might well be voting CPC; as it is, they have lost my vote (though it is doubtful it will go Liberal or NDP; most likely Libertarian).

      Delete
    16. To all frustrated Conservatives who cannot stand Trudeau or the NDP (most) I suggest looking at the Greens. A logical tax system, balanced budgets (and an explanation of how they'd do it on their website), plus local MP's have full autonomy to vote as their riding demands. Things that would've fit nicely into the old Reform Party's policies. There are elements most Tory's wouldn't be fans of such as a Carbon Fee but if the goal is to send a message that you are frustrated Green might be the way to go. Or Libertarian if that is in your riding.

      Another reason to get rid of first-past-the-post, let us see a new right wing party like Reform show up to keep Conservatives honest.

      Delete
    17. "To all frustrated Conservatives who cannot stand Trudeau or the NDP (most) I suggest looking at the Greens."

      I fall into that category but have an outstanding question to them with no answer as of now. If I don't receive an answer, I will not vote for them.

      (If you care, the question pertains to Men's Issues, since subjects like an inquiry into murder aboriginal women keeps coming up in spite of the fact that aboriginal men are twice as likely to be killed as aboriginal women; further, Tina Lafontaine would be alive today if her father had not been killed, since that is when her life started to spiral out of control.)

      Delete
  2. And with the release of today's Nanos poll the whole scene has radically shifted.

    Who would have thought the CPC would slide so far so quickly ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The CPC has been slowly sliding down for months but seems to have really hit the skids when the news broke that the country was in yet another recession.
      Harper's totally cold performance on the Syrian refugee crisis, after the death of that 3 year old. was probably more than most decent people could stomach.
      I think it is over for the CPC and there will not be many to mourn it.

      Delete
    2. The only people who are surprised by the decline in Conservative support are Conservative supporters themselves. The polls (e.g. Best PM, Right Track/Wrong Track, Desire for Change, etc) had been echoing a shift like this for quite some time leading to it.

      Delete
    3. You did. You've been predicting this for a year. Don't act surprised now.

      Delete
    4. My thought was, what took so long?

      Delete
    5. The CPC decline isn't surprising. The NDP climb isn't surprising.

      What's surprising in the Liberal strength. Before the writ drop, they'd been falling for over a year. Why they're climbing now I have no idea.

      Delete
    6. Ira, I think they are climbing now because of voters like me. I consider myself a red tory (or blue liberal). I have voted Conservative the last few elections. However, I have become so fed up with them that I am switching to the Liberals this time. If a pollster had asked me at the start of the campaign I would have answered "undecided". I wanted to see that the Liberals had a reasonable plan before making a solid switch. Despite disliking Trudeau, I do believe the Liberals have a decent plan. I'm probably not the only voter who took the "wait-and-see" approach before switching to Liberal since the campaign started.

      Delete
    7. I wonder how much Paul Martin's recent enthusiastic campaigning for the Liberals is making an impact, given that many Canadians view him as quite the competent economic manager. Might be enough to get Canadians to give Trudeau a second look. In the last few weeks Goodale has also been speaking quite a bit for the Liberals, and it looks to me like he's doing a good job (I thought he demolished Nash and Rempel on P&P a few weeks ago).

      Delete
    8. Éric,

      Ontario decides and takes more than expected of Quebec with it. (Reverse trend of 1984 with Mulroney).

      NDP can't win in Ontario so it becomes very much a Liberal scenario.

      Peter,

      What do you think?

      Delete
    9. I feel August 2015 was Trudeau's best month in politics. This was the Trudeau that people wanted to see two years ago.

      Trudeau and the Liberals worked well under pressure when polls showed them third place. He devoted time to policy and chose positions that could be deemed as politically risky.

      While they are lagging behind the NDP in polls, the Liberals are still better equipped for a long election campaign. They have more money, their candidates have been on the ground for longer and in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, they share the same political infrastructure as their provincial counterparts.

      I think Trudeau will still "lose" the election, but perform better than Dion did back in 2008.

      Delete
    10. And the latest Nanos nightly poll is a real shocker !!

      Libs 32.5
      NDP 31.2
      CPC 25.9
      Look like the Mansbridge-Harper interview really bombed !!

      Delete
    11. Those numbers aren't really a a shocker. Little movement between the NDP and Liberals and the Conservatives aren't recovering at all.

      The "shocker" is just how badly the NDP is tanking in Ontario.

      Delete
    12. The Liberals seem to be actively trying to make me not vote for them. I don't understand their climb.

      This Syria thing makes me like Harper more, not less. I was wavering on Harper (considering voting Green), but now I think I'm sticking with Harper.

      Delete
    13. I'm not really surprised to see the Liberals take the lead in the Nanos poll. Granted, Trudeau has an experience issue, but the Liberal party as a whole doesn't. I'm not sure the same could be said about the NDP though. They've never formed government and have only one Parliament of official opposition status. I wonder if they'll have to "pay their dues" a little more first.

      Delete
    14. Trudeau's been involved in politics all his adult life and been a MP for 7 years. When Harper was won his first minority, he had 4 years as a MP. It's a good spin job, just like the Ignatieff "Just Visiting" branding. The NDP are currently in the same position as the CPC going into the 2006 election (One time Opposition, Won a Minority).

      Delete
    15. That's true, Mapleson, but is the modern CPC viewed as being so radically different from the old PC party that the idea of a Conservative government would have been viewed as novel? I mean no disrespect in the question should it come across that way. It's an honest question from an outsider. (I'm an American with a keen interest in Canadian politics.)

      And yes, I agree that the Trudeau thing is a spin job, but the perception appears to be there to a degree. I'm just wondering if the Nanos poll suggests that the public sees it as such and actually views the Grits as having more experience in government that the Dippers, thus possibly giving them an edge.

      Delete
    16. Besides the name, there is little in common between the CPC and PC. While there were many other factors in play, the Reform Party is in part responsible for the annilation of the PC in the 1993 election, due to vote splitting in Ontario. There are many former PC party members who would not vote CPC.

      For the closest American equivalent, I'd say it'd be the same as the TEA Party breaking away from the Republicans, letting the Democrats dominate for a decade, until the rump of the Republicans dissolved. Or more historically, the Whigs and the Republicans.

      Delete
  3. Is it possible that the NDP is bleeding support to the Liberals, while the Conservatives bleed to the NDP?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Plausible, even. CPC supporters, particularly out west, tend not to like Trudeau (I know I don't). I'd vote NDP before I'd vote Liberal.

      Delete
    2. If so, the Conservatives seem to be bleeding more support to the NDP than the NDP is to the Liberals.

      Delete
    3. It depends on the part of the country or even the part of the province.

      In Ontario, Conservative support in the GTA or Ottawa area will bleed to the Liberals. These voters still dismiss the NDP after the debacle that happened a generation ago.

      But in Southwestern Ontario, there are lots of NDP to CPC switchers. We can see ridings like Essex, Sarnia Lambton and London West switch from CPC to NDP.

      Same in BC. In some upper middle class Vancouver area ridings we can see disgruntled Tories vote Liberal. While in rural BC these upset Tories will go to the NDP.

      Montreal we can see people switch between NDP and Liberal. Quebec City we can see people switch between NDP and CPC.

      Delete
    4. Big Jay, you hit the nail on the head with regards to Ontario. It is very much just as regionalized on its own as the rest of the country. Ottawa and the GTA are CPC/Liberal swing areas, whereas Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario is where voters swing between the CPC and NDP. This is why I *really* wish we could get another federal election poll that has regional numbers, as it would paint a much better picture of how the numbers are distributed and could possibly show where there is potential for vote splitting if the Liberals are doing well even in areas that have traditionally swung to the NDP.

      Delete
    5. I'd imagine it varies by region but I wouldn't be surprised.

      Delete
  4. I am surprised that the seat projections do not seem to have changed but with the obvious drop in Conservative support, it seems unlikely that the party has any chance of winning the election now. Trudeau or Mulcair will be the next Prime Minister.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If Harper's statements in St. Catharines last night are any indication, it seems that even he now has now come to that realization. But these results really shouldn't surprise anyone, the ancillary metrics leading up to this all indicated that the Conservatives were going to do very poorly. It doesn't look like any of this is going to change, either. Strengthening their campaign on the economy and reminding everyone that Canada entered a recession while Harper was Prime Minister has to be one of the dumbest campaign moves I've ever seen any party engage in during an election - and I lived through John Tory's Progressive Conservative campaign in Ontario!

      Delete
    2. Conservatives have more of an advantageous distribution in support. They could conceivably win a minority without the plurality of votes.

      Delete
    3. They absolutely could, but nothing short of a majority government is going to keep the Conservatives in power. The Liberals and NDP will form some sort of coalition or governing accord like Ontario in 85. The question has been asked, and that seems to be what most Canadians would want.

      Delete
  5. Hey, Eric, guessing it might be out later or it might just be skipped due to the overload of work the election is causing, but will you release an month of August average? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  6. I think nanos has been the most consistent pollster, showing support gradually shifting the Tories from 1st to 3rd and the liberals in second but all close . This is the first poll that shows the effects the Duffy scandal the economy ( mismanaged)and their cruel reaction to criticism of their mishandling of the Syrian refugee situation is having on the Tories as people start to digest them.Like an old tree rotten inside, the Harper party will be knocked down by the winds buffeting them . Lucky to get 23% and 70-80 seats by October 19

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There's probably a bit of truth to your statement about what kind of support the Conservatives will have kept after the election. The Nanos poll included some of the highest numbers for second party support among Conservative supporters of any poll leading up to or during this election. That is terrible news for the Conservatives as their advantage has always been that they have the most committed voters and even that seems to be going by the wayside. While I'm now beginning to think that the Conservatives finishing third is a very real - and perhaps even most likely - possibility, I still can't see them dropping much below 90 seats even in a worst case scenario.

      This is beginning to look like an NDP vs. Liberal election now, but I'd still say the edge is still with the NDP as their Quebec base doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon. They theoretically only need to win an additional 20-30 seats to get the keys to 24 Sussex.

      Delete
    2. Yup. Harper is done and he knows it. CTV is reporting Infighting amongst the campaign team, that is the death knell.

      Delete
  7. I prefer to look at the trends within the same polling firm to determing what may be happening across time, since the methodology of the different polls can make even an aggregator volatile. It's hard to do so with the recent Nanos poll, since he's gone from 4-week rolling average to a more daily reporting.

    For example,
    Forum had CPC +1, NDP -4, Lib +2
    Ekos had CPC +1.4, NDP -3.4, Lib +1
    Leger had CPC +1, NDP -2, Lib +1.3
    Abacus had CPC +1, NDP -4, Lib +2

    Although in some cases the first poll was a few weeks prior, the latest poll seemed to occur within a short period of time (and also happened shortly after all the economy and no defecit/yes defecit talk). From those it does look like the NDP is bleeding support to either the CPC or the Libs (or some combination).

    I don't see the Nanos poll, actually refuting this possibility since it can only be viewed in isolation. Of course the next trend may change with the events of the past week and how the respondents perceived the reactions by each party.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The NDP is sharply down from their peak - that's clear. Even Éric's aggregate had them over 37% just 2 weeks ago.

      Delete
    2. Nanos today has Libs in first. CPC still falling further into third place.

      Delete
  8. With 60% of Canadians wanting the government to do less or the same when it comes to helping refugees, I think that the Conservative's support will bump up over the next week or two. Mulcair knows this, which is why his making sure to stay within striking distance of the Conservatives, and not following Trudeau's refugee promises.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ummm, you have that backwards. The majority want MORE. They are divided on party lines. Since the CPC is a shrinking minority of Canadians in freefall and firmly in third place, that does not add up to much support.

      Mulcair is fighting the Liberals for first place. Harper is becoming irrelevant.

      Delete
    2. Where did you pull that number from?

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-refugees-sep9-1.3219544

      Canada should take in more refugees from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq.
      Strongly Agree 26.9%
      Somewhat Agree 32.8%
      Neutral 14.0%
      Somewhat Disagree 12.9%
      Strongly Disagree 12.2%
      Do No Know 1.3%

      Delete
    3. Why do we have immigration rules if we're going to ignore them on a case-by-base basis.

      Why not just have open borders then?

      There's a case to be made for open borders, but not the piecemeal approach to immigrants and refugees.

      We should treat them as one group, with one set of rules. Why have we invented a difference between them?

      Delete
    4. ... and just when you thought it couldn't get any worse for the Tories, one of their supporters went off at the media in Welland today asking if they care about much about Canadian children drowning in swimming pools as they do about refugees. Facepalm.

      But on the bright side, at least he didn't cal them a lying piece of s**t!

      Delete
    5. 70 per cent told Angus Reid that the issue, whoever was causing it, is a global problem in which Canada has a role to play.

      Delete
    6. Ira, who is suggesting ignoring the rules on a case-by-case basis? Harper's Conservatives changed the rules and now it is much harder to claim refugee status in Canada than it was a decade ago. There is a four year backlog in processing parental immigration claims, and that's after a 3 year ban and this year being restricted to 5,000 applications (previous years were between 35,000 to 40,000), which opened on January 2nd and was full by January 3rd.

      I am in favour of broader immigration limits, but the question is our capacity to absorb and grow. From 2009 to 2014, there were 2,339,879 applications for permanent residency, while 1,834,243 were approved. However, there is still a backlog of 419,235 multi-year applications, but the busiest CIC offices have supressed demand (Pakistan is 49 months processing; India is 19 months processing; Singapore is 29 months processing; and the Philippines are 18 months processing).

      There are many easy tweaks to the system that would make it more efficient and less frustrating, but in general the two main problems are over complication and lack of operating budget.

      From 1990 to 1997, refugees averaged 15.1% of total immigration (278,516 total);
      From 1998 to 2006, refugees averaged 12.6% of total immigration (257,297 total);
      From 2007 to 2014, refugees averaged 9.6% of total immigration (195,428 total).

      Just so you know, we divide immigrants into three broad categories: family, economic, and refugee.

      Delete
    7. "Where did you pull that number from?"

      Local Kelowna polls, which tends to be a lot more right-leaning than more rural BC and Van/Vic: http://www.castanet.net/poll/recent_polls.php

      Delete
    8. So that seems to be a local poll for Kelowna, not a national poll. Unless you just overlooked that, extrapolating that all Canadians feel the same way as Kelownans is disingenuous. On top of that, it's just an internet survey which requires no registration, pretty easy to swing the results if one so desired.

      Delete
    9. From your poll 55% of Kelownians think we are doing enough for Syrian refugees, but 55% think we should accept equal or more international refugees.

      Delete
    10. "Just so you know, we divide immigrants into three broad categories: family, economic, and refugee."

      I don't think we should do that.

      Delete
    11. If you don’t like the broad categories, you’ll hate the nitty-gritty details. For example, the family class is divided into eight groups: spouses & children, parents & grandparents, adoptions, and others; in-land (already in Canada and processed in Canada) and out-land (processed in Overseas Visa Offices). The “other” category is very limited to only sponsoring Canadians with no living family of a closer relationship (i.e. if you are married, you can’t sponsor your brother). The in-land groups are very slow (~4 years), the parental group is down to a 4 year processing time (previously at 10 years!), adoptions are processed within a few months, while the spousal group depends on the country of origin (varies from 5 months to 49 months).

      Spousal applications are exempt from medical exclusions, but still need to complete a full medical exam. Parental applications are excluded jointly on medical conditions (i.e. if your father is medically excluded, your mother/step-mother can’t qualify separately). Both groups have language proficiency exemptions, whereas economic immigrants gain preference by being fluently bilingual.

      Delete
  9. The trouble with Forum isn't that they're always wrong, but that we have no idea if they're in crazyland or not without other pollsters weighing in. Which isn't all that valuable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ryan, it seems Forums only problem is that they were prognosticators not pulse takers. They were predicting the CPC collapse and Liberal rise before anyone.

      Delete
  10. Nanos today has Libs overtaking the NDP and CPC still falling in third.

    Once the CPC became the butt of jokes, It was clear they were doomed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It'll be interesting to see if the NDP can gain ground in the second half of the campaign after more or less sitting out the first, or if that window has closed on them never to be reopened. Regardless, the amount of seats that they are going to win in Quebec and potential gains in BC alone put them in a good position regardless of what happens in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. If Trudeau starts gaining enough ground in Quebec to take a bunch of seats from the NDP, he wins.

      Delete
    2. I think it's premature to be calling this election.

      Delete
    3. Well, at least the Tories can say they haven't fallen quite as far as they did to get the 1993 "This Hour Has 22 Minutes" skit. "Mulroney is no more, HEY!"

      Delete
    4. Agreed Ira, we don't know whether it will be an NDP or Liberal victory. Harper is going down and his campaign is in disarray with infighting.

      Delete
    5. Scott Morris, The bitter irony of "Mulroney is no more" was that the Liberals under Chretien/Martin simply maintained adn even extended his policies (after havign promised the opposite). That is the Liberal way.

      Delete
    6. @chimurenga

      Yeah, with things like the GST and NAFTA, Chretien wasn't so far different as he promised. Although he wasn't new to politics, I think the idea of having someone new at 24 Sussex boosted Chretien's popularity. Mulroney had simply been controversial one time too many. Even so, I think he would have done better than two seats since Campbell's campaign was so bad, but that's probably a whole other discussion.

      Anyway, assuming the Conservatives lose, it'll be interesting to see if there are any major changes or if history repeats itself.

      Delete
    7. Not only the GST and NAFTA, but more tellingly, massive cuts to health care and education, etc. Only when Martin was finally threatened with political disaster did he make an effort to put back some of what he and Chretien had cut, but it was already too late...

      Hard to imagine the Cons going down to 2 seats - after all, even in 1993 although the PCs dropped to 2, the Reform party got 52 seats, just missing out on being the Official Opposition.

      Delete
  11. Eric: how are you weighting Nanos' daily tracking poll?

    I assume you'd want to weight the first daily Nanos as having a sample size of 1200 (because because that was all new data). However, every daily release after that should be weighted as if it has a sample size of 400, since each set of 400 gets re-used for 3 days, with 400 new added per day.

    But over at poll tracker, that big weight on the last Nanos leads me to think maybe you're weighting it as a 1200-sample poll, rather than 400.

    P.S. Thanks for all the great work you do.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm treating the newest poll as normal, but reducing earlier polls to 33% of their normal weight to represent that it only contains one day of polling that isn't in the newest set of numbers.

      Delete
  12. Éric,

    Call me nuts but in my view, we could have absolutely no campaign by the Conservatives and they would still lose. Why? Because this Prime Minister sealed his own fate when he won the majority in 2011.

    He had a stark choice: continue as before during the two minority governments or move to the hard-right and push that agenda in Parliament.

    We all know which way he chose to go and voilà, that progressively alienated the soft CPC support (roughly 10%) that he absolutely needed to stay in office.

    In other words, Harper, quite deliberately, made his own political bed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Harper is the butt of jokes now. He is finished. The campaign is in disarray and they are infighting to lay the blame. This long campaign is going to be miserable for Harper. How low will he go is the question.

      Delete
    2. "this Prime Minister sealed his own fate when he won the majority in 2011."

      I agree. We've now started hearing about infighting in the CPC about how to manage the campaign now they are in trouble and all I can think is: "Well, start by going back to 2011 and don't do your silly tough-on-crime agenda; don't do Bill C-51 and C-36; (and my personal favourite: you'd have done way better if you had passed C-560; you lost a lot of people who may not vote NDP or Liberal, but simply won't vote for you given the failure of that one).

      Delete
  13. Ronald, if Harper had moved hard right when he gained his 2011 majority, we would have seen a very different government.

    We would have seen Harper completely undo all of his stimulus from 2009. We would have seen a dramatic drop in government spending overall. We would have seen large-scale cancellation of government programs.

    We didn't see any of that.

    I wish we had. Then these last 4 years would have actually accomplished something.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ira,

      I take your points and concur. I was thinking more of the criminal justice agenda: focusing exclusively on victims' rights (though they are important and necessary) without paying any attention to inmates' minimal rights. Another gold mine for the right, mandatory minimums which have been proven ineffective in many U.S. states and are being abolished. The faint hope clause, etc.

      I always say if you make investments directed toward inmates, you get a good end result most of the time when the person is released. It has to be a balance to achieve life-changing results in inmates' lives. After all, isn't Job One to get them to go straight?

      If you take away his or her rights, what you get upon release is not pretty -- thus it becomes a self-perpetuating cycle, leading almost certainly to repeat offences. Our CJ system should be about changing lives before release into society.

      Delete
    2. Job one is to get them not to offend in the first place. Deterrence. But the way to do that is probably to educate the public better, ensuring that people don't get marginalized and instead learn what options are available to them.

      I wish our public education were better so we could implement a mandatory system like France did after WW2 (they did it to more rapidly assimilate the German-speaking residents of Elsaß and Lothringia).

      Crime rates are high in inner-city America because those people think they have nothing to lose. We can't let that sort of nihilism be a primary motivator for young people.

      Also, a more sensible drug policy would help take revenue away from organized crime. We need to legalize marijuana, and probably other street drugs, as well. Modern chemistry is such that new drugs are easy to create, so prohibiting them drug-by-drug is ineffective anyway.

      I agree with you, though, on mandatory minimum sentences. Those are idiotic.

      Delete
    3. The Dutch model is great for reducing drug use, crime, and increasing government tax revenues. Education is generally a provincial matter, but otherwise, I completely agree: Deterrence and Rehabilitation.

      We need a red tory/blue grit party to balance out our political landscape.

      Delete
    4. @Ira Sorry, but deterrence has been proven to be totally ineffective for a very simple reason: people don't believe they will be caught.

      Delete
  14. So remember when everyone was wondering why the Conservatives were still attacking Trudeau and I said because they have better polling? Just saying. Harper by the way is still smiling and staying on message and seeming relatively relaxed despite these poll numbers. Something to consider. I maintain they have better polls. Emotions are running high now and those people will answer robo polls and online polls etc. Everyone wondered why Christie Clark seemed so pleased during the last BC election. Answer she had more accurate polls.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No one in the Conservative camp is "pleased" with the way the campaign has been run. Jenni Byrne and Ray Novak have been kicked off the campaign trail and sent back to Ottawa and there is infighting over the way the campaign has been run. Harper is already alluding to the possibility of the Liberals or the NDP winning the election. I would agree that the Conservatives internally have good polls, and it's because of that and the signal that they are on the verge of losing this election and not even becoming the official opposition why the knives have come out and why sources within the Conservative party are running to the media to cry about how poorly things have been done and how badly the ball has been dropped in light of things they could not control.

      Delete
    2. Harper is also talking out loud about the real possibility of losing.

      Delete
    3. I worked with Jenni Byrne many years ago (we were both Canadian Alliance staff then). I never got the impression that she knew what she was doing - she just talked a good game.

      Delete
    4. I don't think Harper looks relaxed at all. Even the smug smile seems to be vanishing. To me, he looks frustrated, a bit angry and increasingly rejected.
      Even the hand picked groups his campaign puts together to show up at his announcements are starting to look the same way and they are an angry bunch as reporters are finding out.
      While I would like to see the NDP and Mulcair form the next government which would really change things, it is also obvious that Harper was right to fear Trudeau who is staging an amazing come back.
      The Conservatives are starting to slide down nationally just as they did in the Alberta election and we all know that did not end well for them.

      Delete
    5. Angry Harper is almost certainly a better campaigner than stiff Harper.

      The best campaigner is playful Harper, but I doubt we'll see him again.

      Delete
    6. "[Harper] looks frustrated, a bit angry and increasingly rejected."

      He does. The sad irony is I don't think he has a clue why he is rejected. It's not that he lost people who will vote Liberal or NDP so much as he's lost people who would like to vote CPC but he's done the opposite of what they supported him for; just look at the difference between Harper 1995, Harper 2005, and Harper 2015. Harper 1995, and likely Harper 2005, wouldn't be voting for Harper 2015. That's the ultimate irony.

      Delete
    7. Ira,

      I don't have much in common with Harper but my sense of humour is very similar to his. I don't know if that is good or bad!

      Delete
  15. The interactive riding map on the projections page is quite neat.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I cannot applaud you enough for the map!!! I'd like to see the overall numbers on the home page though, I missed that.

    ReplyDelete
  17. The map is really nice! It's not so effective in urban areas since we can't zoom in, but just seeing the overall look is great.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In Explorer, Chrome and Firefox I can't zoom in for a better view of the cities - I can stab around with the cursor on individual urban ridings, but it's hard to select a specific one that way.

      Delete
    2. Will you be providing a raw feed of numbers to Stephen or will he have to convert the images? I noticed that the map is using your August 28th riding information. Where should we be leaving comments about the map? It's great, but could be better. For example, updating with the polls; shading according to security of the seat; colors that match the CBC Poll Tracker (For example PT uses #0c499c for CPC and Stephen uses #263893).

      Delete
    3. You can't zoom? Just double-click on the map or use your scroll wheel on your mouse.

      The projections are from yesterday's numbers, not August 28. Why do you think it is August 28?

      Delete
    4. Ah, well, after double clickingm zooming in with the scroll wheel works... That's great! :)

      Delete
    5. Ah, I see now that the projections are now from September 9, not August 28. However, this morning they were still September 8th.

      It was the difference between looking at:

      http://stephenmcmurtry.org/dir_election_map/Ridings_Aug_28.txt

      vs.

      https://raw.githubusercontent.com/smcmurtry/election_map/master/data/current_projections.txt

      Delete
    6. Another comment would be for the 3 ridings with special "Other" candidates, remove the star and possible add a line of comment to the bottom of the tooltip window.

      Delete
    7. Yes, all good now with the scroll wheel. Thanks!

      Delete
    8. I agree with everyone. The map is super awesome. However, how frequently will it be updated? I'd really appreciate it if the map included a label indicating the date it was updated so we know how old the information is.

      Delete
    9. It will be updated as often as the riding projections are. The date of the update is there on the riding projections page.

      Delete
  18. I wonder if we'll see some more movement after last night's CBC interview with Tom Mulcair, in which he quite clearly and unequivocally stated that if elected PM, one of his first acts would be to bring our troops home from Iraq and the Syrian borders. No wishy-washy, mealy-mouthed platitudes; just the facts. These that agree with him will likely shift their votes his way; those that don't will probably stick with the Conservatives, as they probably don't see the Liberals as having a clear position on that file. Same with the refugee crisis; he stated he'd immediately bring in 10,000 before the year is out, while Harper is doubling down on his paranoia about potential security threats embedded in that wretched mass of desperate humanity.

    Will the ballot question end up being about whether Canada is willing to step up?

    ReplyDelete
  19. The new Nanos data swings Conservative again. That's a big move for one day in a rolling average.

    Their supporters might be reacting to the poor polling of previous days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm very skeptical of what Nanos is showing for all the parties. I usually don't comment on methodology on a per-poll bases but Nanos is really rubbing me the wrong way with how they are presenting their polls. They're adding new data to old data daily and with only small samples (400 people), it just doesn't seem accurate.

      Eric, are you counting each daily poll from Nanos as new or are you using the same 1/4 value as before? Seems that if they are using a four day rolling poll using the old three day data every would skew your model.

      Delete
    2. I'd go more with margin of error swings than any real changes.

      Delete
    3. An increase of 2.7 points for CPC; given that the numbers for the 6th and 8th didn't change, that means the CPC figure for the 9th was eight (!) points higher than for the 5th. Single-day margin or error is fairly high, though, so one of those two is probably out of whack. The next few days should tell us which one it is.

      Delete
  20. And last nights Nanos proves that people who vote Green and many who vote NDP, well answer polls that way anyways, don't go away for the Labour Day weekend. Conservatives up by 3 points in one night of a 3 day rolling poll. Do that math. There's a reason why Harper is staying on message.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wonder about the efficiency of those 3 points... looking at the regionals it looks like their spikes came in area's where they either already have (the Prairies) or already could have (BC) the plurality. Wish we could see the urban/rural poll split in those two area's.

      Delete
    2. If Harper is taking solace in a 400 person nightly poll, he is not very bright. I know he is not that dumb. Most larger polls are showing a significant down trend for the CPC. Harper is staying on message because he has no choice, not because of the polls.

      Delete
    3. It's the newest data.

      The data supports no conclusion as of yet, which is the point. People seem eager to count the Tories out of this one, but the data does not support that conclusion.

      Also, the CPC campaign has never, in the whole history of the party, been about mass poll numbers. They're all about policies aimed at specific segments of the population that they think they'll need.

      The Tory approach is theoretically more efficient, as they don't waste resources appealing to voters who won't help them win more seats.

      Delete
    4. Also, Jimmy, I don't think Harper does have to stay on message. Mulcair threw him a bone with that Senate thing. Harper could stand up now and say, "I failed to reform the Senate, but I'm still committed to doing so. I pledge to work with Tom Mulcair to reform or abolish the Senate, as circumstances permit, regardless of the outcome of the election."

      I think that would sell.

      Delete
    5. Ya, Harper is going to say he failed. I look forward to the first time he admits failure.

      Delete
    6. The other problem the CPC have, is that their leader is intensely disliked by anyone but the most hard core CPC. He is polling last as leader. This he will not turn around. The CPC have HUGE problems. Unpopular leader, bad polling numbers and a campaign in shambles with party infighting.

      Delete
    7. And yet a polling rebound, now clearly visible in the data.

      This is why I said it was too early to be calling the election. There are 5 or 6 possible outcomes that are all reasonably likely.

      Delete
    8. Todays Forum poll 1300 respondents has CPC in third and Harper in distant third as PM.

      Delete
    9. Forum has the NDP in the lead and the CPC and Libs tied. Remember the margin of error.

      Also, Forum's track record isn't awesome.

      Delete
    10. Nope. NDP in lead CPC in third by one point.

      Delete
  21. I'm surprised by the use of both Nanos polls and their weighting when they are running averages over the same dates - the polls reflect Sept. 5, 6, 8 and Sept. 6, 8, 9, and I would think that these are thus not independent data, and that it will exaggerate any outliers/variability on the 6th and 8th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Éric counts the new poll at full value, but discounts the older polls to account for their paucity of unique information.

      Delete
  22. I do like the new interactive map. It really helps to visualize how the election is going across the country.
    My only concern is about the rolling Nanos poll which apparently is going to effect every single polling day which seems to me is a bit too much for one poll.
    My thought would be to only rate it as a poll of about 400 each day rather than as a new poll of 1200 each day.
    Anyway, I appreciate the work you put into it Eric.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Eric treats the latest one as 1200 unique responses, and the older ones as 400 (since they have 400 unique responses, the other 800 are duplicated with later polls).

      Delete
    2. Isn't that still problematic? Since we know it's a rolling poll, why not just rate the latest one as 400 unique responses, too? Eric's method still overweighs Nanos polling by 800 responses since the latest poll includes old information. This is *especially* problematic since by releasing new information every day the Nanos numbers (and whatever methodological biases they may or may not contain) are already going to have an enormous pull on the poll average. The CBC poll tracker is practically the Nanos poll tracker.

      Delete
    3. But those 800 responses aren't counted anywhere else.

      Delete
    4. No, it doesn't overweight it. The latest Nanos is weighted based on 1200 responses, the older ones are weighted based on 400 each. The total is correct.

      The one challenge is that Nanos doesn't break out the individual days so while day -1 is correct, -2 and -3 will be slightly overweight and -4 will be slightly underweight. But I think it's the best that can be done with the data Nanos provides.

      As to "Nanos poll tracker", we really need the other pollsters to up their frequency in order to get more balance. Unless Eric chooses to reduce the Nanos weighting.

      Delete
    5. I think he fixed it, because now todays nanos poll has all the weight, while the previous have none.

      Delete
  23. The one thing I wish we could see on your polltracker is the distribution curve that generates the Min, Low, Avg, High, and Max values for each party.

    Right now, the Liberals have the highest average, but the lowest Min and lowest Max. That would be an interesting curve, especially when compared to the others. The CPC curve looks like a fairly symmetrical, for example.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Harper is in PEI today in an effort to save Gail Shea's seat. She is losing. The CPC campaign is a mess and is now in salvage mode.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. People are freaking out about nothing. The CPC campaign is not a disaster yet. Let's remember, there are FORTY whole days left in the campaign and at least FOUR more debates to go. Anything can happen. Harper knows this. He has plans. We can be sure of that. I don't think the CPC is really all that nervous about things yet.

      Delete
    2. It is and has been a disaster. We will see if it is fixable. If they weren't nervous they would not have brought in a fixer.

      Delete
    3. And yet they're still polling in a statistical tie with the other parties.

      Delete
    4. Statistical tie with the others is a disaster for Harper he was supposed to have wiped out the Liberals by now and focusing on the NDP.

      Delete
  25. It is still shocking to me that the Conservatives never understood the results of the 2011 election in Ontario. The biggest factor was Onatarioans remembering Bob Rae's government in 1990 - and it didn't help Bob was now a Liberal - and hundreds of thousand of right of centre Liberals voted for the Conservatives to keep the NDP from winning a majority. Also there was a fact that people were tired of a minority government system that wasn't working. Somehow the Conservatives thought their American thinking right wing policies were liked in Ontario. How could they have been so naive? Considering a huge concentration of CPC votes in the rural areas in Ontario, I think it's going to be a really awful night in Ontario for the Conservatives if the trends continue. The Conservatives are in for a total shock in the 905, yet again, because of their totally misplaced belief of what people have thought about their policies in Ontario since they won a majority government.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think your assessment of 2011 is correct and the CPC are in deep trouble in 905 and 519. What's unclear to me is who benefits from that. I can easily see a lot of the CPC voters in 2011 voting for Green, Libertarian, even Rhino, as much as for NDP or Liberal.

      Delete
    2. Paul,

      The majority of the *new* CPC voters in Ontario were from disenchanted Liberals.

      There was a swing throughout the province, but it was most noticeable in the 905 and 416 where long time Liberal incumbents were defeated.

      Its highly likely that those voters will return back to the Liberal fold.

      Now there may be some hard core Conservatives that are not satisfied with Harper and dislike what the Liberals and NDP stand for. A small minority of these voters may vote Green, Libertarian or Rhino. But more often these Conservatives will hold their nose and vote Tory or stay at home on Oct 19.

      Delete
    3. "more often these Conservatives will hold their nose and vote Tory or stay at home on Oct 19."

      I agree they are unlikely to return to the Liberals; I have serious doubts that they will vote CPC. Polling data has been fairly consistent with the CPC below 35% since early 2012. Those people who gave the CPC their majority have long gone and the CPC did nothing to address that in the last three years. (This is the real problem the CPC are facing, IMO; there is _no_ election strategy that gets them to a majority at this point because those people won't even consider CPC after the last three years.)

      Delete
    4. Big Jay, It's highly unlikely that the Liberals will go back to Liberals in 2015? What?? Look at the polls and compare them to the polls in 2011. They already have gone back. And considering the concentration of conservative votes in rural Ontario, the Tory's are in huge trouble with those voters.

      Delete
  26. We won't know how the NDP is going to do until the CPC and LPOC train their guns on Mulcair and his merry bunch.

    To me that has been the failure of both the Liberal and Conservative campaigns to date. There are lots of NDP promises and statements that would warn off most Canadians, if they knew about them. It's time pull out the big guns guys and fight the front runner.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've long thought that the CPC strategy was to utterly defeat one flank before turning to the other. It's one reason for their obsession with the Liberals even when the Liberals were polling in the low to mid-20s in recent months. The plan was to utterly de-legitimate Justin Trudeau (like what they surely succeeded doing to Ignatieff) before training their guns on the NDP, which they think would be easy to take out. I don't think this is just a theory. Harper has been KNOWN to have said that should Canadians be presented the choice of the Conservatives or the NDP, they would go with the Conservatives every time (that's Harper's belief, not mine). His goal IS to destroy the Liberal Party so as to set up a scenario where the Conservatives will rule as Canada's new "natural governing party".

      HOWEVER, the plan doesn't seem to be working, since the Liberals refuse to die. Trudeau hung in there despite all the focus group tested ads. THAT I think is why Harper would be recalibrating, if he is, and not because his campaign is such a major "disaster" when there are so many days and so many debates left in the campaign.

      Delete
  27. And now today, Sept. 11, Nanos has the three parties tied !! Next ????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The margin of error on most of those polls is 2-3%....just remember that when thinking about how big those differences really are even when people think movement is happening.

      Delete
    2. CPC obviously picking up support. They've had two good nights on Nanos. Maybe Harper can pull this one out. As long as the NDP doesn't win I'll be happy.

      Delete
    3. If you look at the numbers, it seems like the Greens were over represented for the first few days (polling over 6%). I would be interesting to see how a 4- or 5- day rolling poll would turn out.

      Delete
    4. The Nanos methodology of not offering prompts tends to produce low Green values. I wonder if those would be more sensitive to Green appearances in the media.

      Delete
  28. There is nothing demonstrable that would have increased Tory support this significantly over the last three days, other than different people answer polls on Labour Day weekend than not Labour Day weekend. Nanos proves once again that the numbers are nothing more than support among those who happened to answer that poll, with that methodology, on that given day. They aren't random or representative samples any more.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was predicted by many when this election was called that the bulk of Canadians wouldn't be paying attention to the race until after Labour Day.

      Now it's after Labour Day. The broader audience has arrived.

      We also haven't seen any large-scale advertising from anyone yet (and we know the Tories are going to drown us in it). This race could still change quite a bit.

      Delete
    2. Yup, its going to change in about two-three weeks. The anti Harper sentiment is very strong at the door. One of the opposition parties is going to breakout.

      Delete
  29. By the way, allegations from 2 different refugees today that Aylan's father was THE human smuggler and the captain of the boat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The child's name is spelled A-l-a-n.

      Baseless allegations passed around like this is known as "rumour-mongering". Unless they are substantiated by a reliable source with facts and evidence.

      Shoshana, what is your source ?

      Delete
    2. Actually his name was Aylan.

      Delete
  30. Nanos is 400 person daily poll. three day rolling poll 1200.

    Forum 1300 people today has NDP first, Libs second and CPC third.

    Leaders Mulcair first, Trudeau second and Harper very low in third.

    ReplyDelete
  31. So Ekos is out, Conservatives up across the board significantly. Has anything changed? Nope the Conservatives in fact had a terrible week. Who is answering the phone has changed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The narrative changed. Suddenly the Tories were polling in third. That's potentially relevant.

      Delete
    2. Still pretty much a statistical three way tie.

      Delete
    3. Sure, it could scare the silent Tories into answering a poll. I said before I think Harper said he could lose to rally his base.

      Delete
    4. The NDP candidate came to my door. She asked me if I would vote NDP. I said I was undecided. She said most people are waiting until the last week to vote with whomever is best positioned to get rid of Harper. Many like me are responding to pollsters with their chosen party, but will switch at the last minute to vote strategically if necesary. The tide will happen near the end.

      Delete
    5. It really only matters who comes out and actually votes. Not only have the Conservatives been able to GOTV traditionally, they are organizationally by far the strongest, they are flush with cash and the demographic that supports them is more likely to vote.

      The NDP have unions and now a good number of held ridings to GOTV. The Liberals, not so much.

      Likely voters and organizationally capacity is far more important in a split decision election, and this will be.

      5% difference in turnout can mean the difference between third place and a majority. The Conservatives, and the party in power quite regularly pull off that feat, across jurisdictions and even countries.

      Delete
    6. Not this time. Many Cons are fed up with Harper and are staying hoe. The tide will turn in a few weeks and Harper will be finished.

      Delete
  32. Hey Éric, I love your site. You have the best and most accurate polls. I just have one minor complaint. Your Green numbers for my riding are completely out to lunch (North Okanagan - Shuswap). We had a popular person running last time, and she won 17% of the vote, and you are predicting that again even though she's not running. It just won't happen; they'll be lucky to get half the votes they did last election. In 2011 they had as many signs up as the other main parties, but this time around I haven't seen a single sign. Whoever the candidate is, is not not visible at all. I predict they'll get 7%, not 17%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This site doesn't have polls, but is an aggregate of the available polls. There is a positive adjustment to the seat prediction model based on incumbents, but there is no penalty for changing candidates.

      Delete
  33. Eric don't you think it's strange that nanos which had small incremental changes has started bouncing around like forum used to and forum is relatively stable ? Nanos and forum are completely opposite with Ndp #s in Ontario and prairies. At least your aggregate has some stabilizing influence otherwise all us poll addicts would have whiplash . Honestly I've been gratefully following 308 since before 2011 and never seen this kind of volatility Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  34. Your most recent analysis incorrectly states that the NDP has "the lowest floor". I think you meant highest.

    ReplyDelete
  35. It occurs to me that if things end up as close as some of these polls suggest, the party that finishes third in votes could conceivably win the most seats. What kind of turmoil would erupt from that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Depends on what happens:

      1) If the Conservatives win the most seats while being third in the popular vote, it gives the coalition more "legitimacy". It might also result the Liberals and NDP moving swiftly on electoral reform measures.

      2) If the NDP or Liberals win the most seats while being in third place, Harper will step aside.

      At this point the center-left party that did not win the most seats have no choice but to prop up one that got the most seats. No need for coalition though.

      This would also be a good time for the Conservatives to refresh their leadership and prepare for a new election. They will likely attack the new PM as one that lacks a strong mandate to pass ambitious legislation.

      Delete
    2. Probably not much. It has been a long time since we have had a political party that actually had a majority vote (more than 50%). Harper only had 39% when he won last time.
      In the USA, Al Gore actually won more Presidential votes than George W. Bush (even without Florida) but because of their weird Electoral College vote, Bush won the Presidency.

      Delete
    3. And if I remember correctly, the margin between Gore and Bush was more than a million votes - pretty substantial.

      Delete
    4. The margins in non-decisive states don't add to the total deciding votes, just like how the Conservatives have a majority of seats on 35% of the vote.

      Delete
  36. If things stay as they are up to and through E-Day, we are likely to end up with a truly hung Parliament, and we won't know who "won" the election until the "form a government" phase is completed, which could take quite some time.

    For example, let's consider the scenario proposed by Elizabeth May in her CBC interview, aired last evening. The three non-Conservative parties, herded together by Mulcair, Trudeau, or even May herself, inform the Governor-General that they are able to form a government, and that even if the Conservatives have a narrow plurality of seats, Mr Harper will nevertheless be unable to do so. What will happen then? Will Mr Harper's government resign? What advice would Mr Harper, still the sitting PM, give the GG in that scenario?

    No, his election is unlikely to be like any other we have seen in living memory, unless one of the parties pulls clearly ahead in the coming weeks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jerrymacgp,

      Others here are more qualified to answer. It isn't automatic that the outgoing party gets first crack at testing the confidence of the House. That only happens if the outgoing PM asks for it.

      As for a three party coalition, they only get a shot if a) the outgoing government is defeated in the House and b) the PM doesn't ask for an election.

      Delete
    2. " b) the PM doesn't ask for an election." And the GG agrees and we know from past history he often doesn't !!

      Delete
    3. Ronald the sitting PM gets to meet the house and must submit a Throne Speech which is a confidence matter. If the PM loses the vote on the Throne Speech then convention dictates that the PM visits the GG and resigns. The PM may ask for either a new election or recommend that one of the opposition parties be asked to form a government. The GG then has to choosewhether to grant the PM's request for an election or to call upon the opposition to form a government. If the PM merely submits a request for dissolution and an election then the GG may decide to call upon an opposition party to form government. It is highly unusual for the GG NOT to follow the advice of the PM.

      There is no precent for what Elizabeth May is proposing.

      Delete
    4. Ronald,

      Not quite.

      The defeated Prime Minister can *ask* for another election. If another person can persuade the Governor General that they have the confidence of the House, the GG can and must ignore the outgoing PM's request. If the lost confidence vote happens immediately after the House resumes sitting and the evidence of House confidence in someone else is supporting statements or letters from leaders collectively representing a majority of the seats, the GG is bound by precedent and convention to accept that request.

      There's a stale date to a change of government with no new election. If a government fell on a non-confidence motion after two years of actively governing, a new election would be mandatory by Westminster convention. What's the magic period? That has yet to be determined .

      Delete
    5. "As for a three party coalition, they only get a shot if a) the outgoing government is defeated in the House and b) the PM doesn't ask for an election."

      c) Or the PM defeated in the House and asks for an election but the GG declines the request, and instead offers someone else the opportunity to be PM and see if said someone else can demonstrate that s/he has the confidence of the House.

      Delete
    6. "What advice would Mr Harper, still the sitting PM, give the GG in that scenario?"

      Contrary to popular opinion, it may well not matter what advice the PM gives the GG in that scenario. The GG is free to select someone other than the current PM to be PM and see if said individual is capable of demonstrating that s/he has the confidence of the House.

      (Or to put it differently, if the Liberals, NDP, and BQ had held their nerve in 2008, it is quite conceivable that the GG would have given them the opportunity to demonstrate that they had the confidence of the House.)

      Delete
    7. Not in Canada. Won't happen. The Party that wins the most seats gets to form the government. Ms. Mae will be turned away at the door of the GG's.

      Delete
    8. I think the best reference for this is the 1985 Ontario election.

      Under a Conservative plurality, the third place progressive party will prop up the second place progressive party. The second place party will take a couple of the third party's policy planks in order secure the confidence of the latter party.

      Elizabeth May will be irrelevant in all of this. She won't be part of any coalition because her party will not win enough seats to have the clout.

      Delete
    9. Ms. May stated on CBC her goal is to be the negotiator between Libs & NDP should it be a mess like it appears to be (close between all 3 big parties but any 2 could form government). A legitimate concern is Harper making a deal with either the Libs or NDP to stay in power long enough to feel safe calling an election where he'd have a full budget (100% taxpayer funded thanks to his new election rules and the double length one we are going through) while the other parties are royally screwed due to going into debt to afford to keep going.

      Delete
    10. If Harper doesn't win a majority, he won't be PM for long. A loose coalition will kick him out. He is done.

      Delete
    11. "The Party that wins the most seats gets to form the government."

      Incorrect. The GG will take advice from the current PM but is free to ignore it, particularly if there is conflicting information. For example, if someone is able to demonstrate that s/he has the confidence of the House, then the GG would likely appoint said person as PM, regardless that person's status within any particular party structure.

      Delete
    12. "It is highly unusual for the GG NOT to follow the advice of the PM. "

      It is unusual solely because the circumstances requiring it are unusual. It is not unprecedented.

      Delete
  37. For the pundits and soothsayers, EKOS nailed it with this graph: http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/20150911_slide03.jpg.

    All we can confidently say at this stage is that the election could go in any direction.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great graph to demonstrate how things can change drastically at this point. A shame we won't get the big TV debate but instead joke debates which will be barely watched.

      It looked like the refugee crisis could be a 'magic moment' but now it is fading. Something else will come up in the next few weeks but what and who it benefits is impossible to predict.

      Delete
  38. Well folks Germany has just stopped all trains and suspended withdrawn from the Schengen. And that answers the question how much is enough? Welcome to the end of the EU. Harper is going to win this argument.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just temporary to slow it down. They are still keeping their large commitments. Harper is losing this battle here at home. That is why he is caving and changing course by adding more funding and speeding up processing. Harper has no growth in the polls he is done.

      Delete
  39. Peter,
    Earl,
    John,
    Paul,

    It's my impression that the Governor General's hands are tied since King-Byng. Do you agree?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ronald,

      King-Byng certainly set a compelling precedent. The Ontario 1985 election was also significant. Between those two, the Governor General has a clear path to follow. He's unlikely to have to work out anything novel on the fly. Which is good.

      Byng comes off very well through the lens of history.

      Delete
    2. No I don't agree Ron plus check out the piece by Gordon Gibson in today's Globe

      Delete
    3. "It's my impression that the Governor General's hands are tied since King-Byng."

      I'm not sure what you mean by that? King wanted the Byng to call and election; Byng declined as was, and remains, the right of the GG. It happens that the alternative was unable to create a stable government and King won the subsequent election, but at not point has any person argued that Byng acted improperly.

      Delete
    4. Peter, did you just cite a piece written by a man who has been, for the past 2 decades, a Senior Fellow with the Fraser Institute?

      Delete
    5. Ira he was a writer in today's Globe. That's all I know !!

      Delete
  40. Unless there is some major shift in voter preference at the poll, I think we are definitely headed for a minority government.
    The only question to be answered is which party gets the most seats. If it happens to be the Conservatives and it is a minority, then things could get very interesting.
    Harper could well claim that the Conservatives have the right to govern. the catch is, to get rid of him then, you must have a vote of non confidence in the the House.
    And here is the catch. What if Harper delays calling the House together?
    Theoretically he could continue to govern for another year. The opposition would be powerless to stop him.
    The Governor General could step in but remember he was appointed by Harper and would probably support him. That's usually how it works.
    Implausible?
    Harper has used the Governor General to stay in power before, I would not put it past him to do it again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Delaying the first sitting of the House for a year might be theoretically possible, but practically speaking, it would be self-immolation. It would be clearly anti-democratic. At some point the Governor General would actually get to set a new precedent by exercising his reserve powers to dismiss the PM.

      Not happening. Not because Stephen Harper is too moral to attempt it, but rather because he's too smart.

      Delete
  41. I agree, that IF Harper wins the most seats even by one, he will pull some dirty underhanded trick to stay in power for a little longer. It is his MO. Harper's only real chance at truly keeping power is a majority. That is now out of the question for this election. A week before the election, the opposition will coalesce around one candidate and he will lose the election. Likely very badly.

    ReplyDelete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.