Monday, December 21, 2015

Divided vote boosting PC chances in western Manitoba

A poll published in the Brandon Sun by Probe Research shows just how much trouble the Manitoba New Democrats are in, with four months to go before voting day in the province.

The poll shows that the NDP's support in western Manitoba has dropped by more than half, from 41% to 18%. Virtually all of that has gone to the Manitoba Liberals, who have risen from 4% to 22%. The Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile, have not seen their vote change at all: they took 53% of the vote here in the 2011 provincial election, and are now polling at 54%.

This is the developing story of the Manitoba election, that the PCs will almost win by default as the NDP loses a huge share of its vote to the Liberals. Look at the regional breakdown in the Probe poll.

Brandon West and Brandon East were relatively close PC-NDP races in 2011, with the NDP prevailing in Brandon East. Now, with hardly any movement on the part of the PCs, the Tories are well in front in Brandon West and narrowly ahead of the Liberals in Brandon East. Considering that the Liberals are not likely to have the sort of organization they will need in this election (they won 7.5% of the vote and one seat in 2011), it will be difficult to get out all of the vote to win a riding like Brandon East — further boosting the PCs chances.

In the rural parts of western Manitoba, the PCs are even less likely to be challenged. But even there, in Parkland the margin was just 14 points in 2011. Now, with the PCs down two points, the margin is 29 points.

19 comments:

  1. I know very little about the politics or economics of Manitoba these days.

    They had been (and perhaps still are) cleverly gaming the Equalization system by charging well below market prices for electricity, thereby reducing their taxable potential under equalization's formula, and thus collecting larger transfers.

    That was smart. I'm surprised other provinces don't do things like that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only 50% of natural resource revenues are included in the equalisation formula. I presume rents from hydro-electricity would fall here as opposed to the miscellaneous category which would be included 100% toward fiscal capacity. Lowering rents for hydro-electricity would not minimise taxable potential since, that potential is still there. The fiscal capacity of a province may shrink although in the case of Manitoba low electricity rents are made up for by higher provincial income tax. The first bracket being double what it is in B.C. 5.4% v. 10.8%.

      Delete
    2. Hydro might even fall under “user fees” that aren’t included in the equalisation formula. Even then, the fiscal capacity is based on provincially applied nationally averaged rates. Beyond which, I’m relatively sure the majority of people pay sustainably more in property, personal, and business taxes than they do for electricity.

      Delete
    3. No hydro does not fall under user fees since, government collects rents from selling electricity, a user fee pays for access to a service.

      Delete
  2. I'm having trouble figuring out the non-Brandon regions. They don't seem to correspond to seats. If "Parkland" is just Swan River and Dauphin, the PCs didn't win either seat in 2011 so couldn't have been ahead by 14%. If it includes Riding Mountain which the PCs won that makes more sense. That means the two other rural regions are each comprised of part of Arthur Virden and part of Spruce Woods, but each divided and mixed with part of the other. That doesn't make much sense either.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Probe has a map in its PDF - maybe that will answer your questions.

      Delete
    2. Jim's right; the regions do not correspond to Assembly seats. There are eight seats wholly or partially covered by this poll. Five are PC already, and the Liberals appear ready to poach one of the NDP seats, leaving just two NDP losses.

      The PCs can't win unless they crack Fortress Winnipeg, and this poll doesn't tell us if they're doing so.

      Delete
    3. It answers the question that the areas don't correspond to seats. They do correspond to telephone dialing areas.

      Likewise, from the 2011 NHS, 45.4% of Brandon and 50.8% of Manitoba over the age of 15 have an income less than $27,815, while they were only 10.8% of the surveyed population.

      I don't doubt the PC are winning provincially, but the methodology of this poll is very slipshod.

      Delete
    4. Are you sure you aren't comparing individual income to household income?

      Delete
    5. "The following table presents the population aged 15 years and over by total income. The column headings are: total income, Brandon, Manitoba and Canada. The rows are: population aged 15 years and over by total income (count); without income or less than $27,815 in percentage; without income or less than $12,025 in percentage; $12,025 to $27,814 in percentage; $27,815 and over in percentage; $27,815 to $51,304 in percentage; $51,305 and over in percentage; $80,420 and over (top 10 percent) in percentage; $102,305 and over top 5 percent) in percentage and $191,150 and over (top 1 percent) in percentage."

      http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/as-sa/fogs-spg/Pages/FOG.cfm?lang=E&level=3&GeoCode=610

      Median after-tax income all economic families (14,720) was $64,550 and persons not in economic families (9,340) was $25,728 in 2010.

      Probe doesn't identify if it is using individual or household income. If you look at their bottom two groups, they have 37.4% as under $60K.

      Delete
    6. There is something very wrong in your interpretation of that chart. The numbers can not be percentages since, they add to a total of 210.84 for Brandon, 204 for Manitoba and 216 for Canada.

      Delete
    7. 1. The chart you cite is for Aboriginal Identity

      Delete
  3. @Peter Meldrum,

    Sellinger is toast barring unforseen circumstances. The only caveat I would make is there is a small possibility Sellinger will resign-something he probably should have done last year to give the NDP a fighting chance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If Mr Selinger resigned, it would be hard to see any credible NDP caucus member wanting to lead a campaign likely to finish third.

      Delete
  4. @Eric. Your comment about the Liberals difficulty in getting out the vote in Brandon East because of 2011 overlooks the fact that the Liberals won a majority of the polling districts in Brandon just a couple of months ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not that I am doubting it, but do we know this for sure? I thought the poll-by-poll information was not available yet.

      In any case, I am referring to the provincial Liberals, who I think it is safe to say will have a worse GOTV operation than their federal cousins.

      Delete
    2. Reported in the Brandon press after the election; "Of the 84 polls located within Brandon, Liberal candidate Jodi Wyman captured 61, according to Elections Canada data."
      I also read that the Liberals won every polling district in Winnipeg Centre. It appears that some journos did not have to wait until February for the full Elections Canada data.
      I think it is fair to say that if the provincial Liberals numbers are anything like they have been in December, they will have the sort of GOTV organization that helped the feds in 2015 rather than that which was only good enough to elect Lamoureux in 2011.

      Delete
    3. ...and in the 2012 by-election the Liberals again won a majority of the Brandon polling districts, in contrast to both 2011 elections when they did not win a single district.

      Then again, your GOTV operation is likely to be less important if you have the sort of favorable riding poll that the Liberals have in Brandon East.

      Delete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.