Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Satisfaction with Trudeau remains high; Manitoba NDP in third

Nanos's weekly 'best prime minister' tracking continues to wobble back and forth, with Justin Trudeau now back up to 53.1%, compared to 12.7% for Tom Mulcair and 11.3% for Rona Ambrose. Early days, of course, but that wobble seems to only be happening for Trudeau. Mulcair is holding steady but Ambrose has yet to experience her numbers rising from one week to the next.

Elizabeth May had 5.1% and Rhéal Fortin had 1.2%.

More relevant poll than who would be the best person for a job that Trudeau has for the next four years is a Nanos survey asking about Canadians' satisfaction with what the Trudeau government has been doing. The results are good for the Liberals: 67% of Canadians are satisfied or somewhat satisfied with what the Trudeau government has done so far. Just 28% were dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied.

Satisfaction was highest in Atlantic Canada (79%) and British Columbia (74%), and was lowest in Alberta and the Prairies (57%).

Manitoba NDP drops to third place

Greg Selinger's New Democrats got a lump of coal on Boxing Day when the Winnipeg Free Press published the latest results from Probe Research. The numbers were ugly.

The PCs, who have been holding steady pretty much since the last election, were leading with 43%, followed by the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at just 22%. Those are the best and worst numbers for the Liberals and NDP respectively for a very long time — Probe Research, operating for the last two decades, has never had the NDP in third.

And it gets worse from there. The NDP is trailing in Winnipeg with 29% to 35% for the Tories (the Liberals also have 29%). Only in the core part of Winnipeg does the NDP have a lead. Everywhere else around the city the PCs are in front, and in most parts it is the Liberals that are in second.

The PCs also look set to virtually sweep the area outside of Winnipeg (53% to 29% for the Liberals and 13% for the NDP).

So things are looking good for the PCs in the upcoming April election. Coupled with Brad Wall's likely victory in neighbouring Saskatchewan in that province's April election, right-of-centre parties might have their first victories in three years in 2016. I wrote about what could be a fleeting conservative comeback for the CBC today.

40 comments:

  1. Odd how you mentioned the potential victory for the BC Liberals in 2017 as bad news for Conservatives. The BC Liberals are about as Conservative as BC gets.

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    1. I didn't mean it that way, I meant it in that extending a 16-year mandate will not be easy.

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    2. We'll see if the NDP can manage to mount a serious challenge than they did last time. Despite what the polls said, Adrian Dix was never going to win that election.

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    3. The liberals in BC cannot seem to catch a negative break that sticks to them. They get caught red handed in mass deleting emails that clearly violate the law and absolutely nothing sticks from that.

      The Federal Liberals need to create a new Party in BC and split from the provincial NDP where they sit now. The NDP brand in BC hasn't been able to find a leader who is confident in winning an election.

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    4. Éric,

      Maybe Christy Clark gets to become the next Rita Johnston. (And maybe not.)

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    5. Ronald,

      The last poll I saw had the NDP with only a 5% lead. If the BC NDP can squander a 20 point lead a la 2013 Clark is as good as re-elected being only five points behind.

      I would be surprised if more than a third of British Columbians can name the BC NDP leader, Horgan and the BC NDP have been pretty much invisible for the last two years. On policy questions such as LNG I have no idea where they stand and I pay attention to these sort of things! Once again the Liberals will be re-elected in 2017 because the NDP do not have a plan or vision for the future.

      Clark has already won an election something Johnston did not accomplish and she has already surpassed Johnston's tenure many times over. You may hope Clark becomes another Rita Johnston but, without a Harcourt to win British Columbians over, the party is pretty much relegated to the opposition.

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    6. TGPME,

      I was just spitballing. My comment was not meant to be taken seriously -- so much for a fin de régime.

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    7. Steven Benson - The BC Liberals are what they are because that's what was necessary to defeat the NDP.

      It is surprising that the appearance of the BC Conservative Party didn't hurt them, though. The BC Cons just siphoned off social conservatives in the interior (many of whom previously voted NDP anyway).

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  2. Eric,

    At 29% do the Manitoba Liberals win any seats?

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    1. They can win seats at 7% so why wouldn't they at 29%?

      If you mean additional seats, there is a few low-hanging fruit the party would target and has been targeting. This includes Flin Flon, where they're running a councillor; Fort Rouge, their third-best 2011 riding where Bokhari is running; Tyndall Park, their second best 2011 riding where they're running a Filipino community activist, a good candidate for that district; Brandon East is a stretch but they are running a councillor there. Also, The Maples would be a good bet to turn red, especially if Tyndall Park does - they're kind of connected like that.

      Depending on where the NDP vote flees, its possible some of the core Winnipeg ridings (ie Logan, Wolseley, Minto) could fall, though I say its *possible,* not likely, but there was a mighty red tide there in October that should worry every NDP incumbent there. Districts in the south - Riel, St. Vital, Fort Garry, etc. - would be more likely to flip to the Liberals if enough of the NDP vote switches directly over, and with Pallister as leader, I could see that happening.

      However, all in all, the Liberals may pick up seats but I doubt it would be enough to force a minority gov't on the PCs. They're way too disorganized for that as it is. There are definitely a few ridings that will fall their way regardless, though.

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    2. So at 43%, 29%, 22% would we see a Conservative minority or majority?

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    3. Majority, for sure. With the newer polls coming out for mbpoli... I don't know anymore.

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  3. http://www.cjob.com/2015/12/30/109435/
    New poll from Insightrix showing the PCs at 39%, the Liberals at 36% and the NDP at 19%.

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    1. Oh wow. Rana is becoming an impressive politician (Thank goodness for her sake her name's not Rona). Do we have another provincial situation on our hands? Conservatives right now seem to think we live in the United States with their Republican and Trump style rhetoric, and Canadians are telling them in no uncertain terms what they think of that. All she has to do is to promise a preferential voting system, which will destroy the American thinking PC's, and NDP voters will go to her in droves. Time for another far right wing party to crash and burn until they realize they have to be Canadian-conservatives, not American far right wing Rush Limbaugh ones.

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    2. 11Matt11, I believe you are confused about where "we" live. You are the only commentator I know who brings up the Republicans, your concern, must stem from the4 fact you are an American and therefore that race and their eventual nominee will or may have a direct impact on your life. Don't worry 11Matt11, As an American you can join your local state republican party and vote in the primaries for a candidate other than Mr. Trump. It would be nice if the "Trump style rhethoric" stayed in the United Statesw buit, alas, you seem intent on bringing i9t across the border in electronic form-For Shame!

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    3. The Insightrix poll makes an interesting contrast with the Probe poll, not least the fact that Probe put the Liberals at 29% in Winnipeg (oddly the same figure as for the rest of the province, which doesn't ring true) while Insightrix had them at 42% in Winnipeg, well ahead of the other two parties.
      It is hard translating these polls into seats, but the Insightrix poll would give the Liberals around 20 seats in Winnipeg. On these figures the Conservatives could still just win a majority.
      Much will depend on the parties respective ground games. The realities are that the ground game comes together if a party's prospects look good. It was this reality that gave the Liberals the edge on the ground game last October.

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    4. Ghost, I would have liked that too, except Harper was the one who brought it into the election with his "old stock" campaign, with his "Barbaric Practices" hotline. What the Reform has been doing since they took over power in right wing parties, has been right out of the Republican Party playbook. That appealing to the extreme far right, while trying to totally upset the rest of the electorate so that they wouldn't go out and vote - along with the "he's just not ready" 2 year propaganda BS - is the definition of the Karl Rove Republican tactics that elected George W twice, and now sees itself manifested in Trump.

      As educated Canadians, to close yourself off from understanding how politics overlaps between the two countries with the longest border in the world, is just silly. You don't think the Democrats are trying to figure out how Trudeau's winning - and especially Notley's - can be used in American elections. Then you're cutting yourself off to information that's the here and now in North America.

      Harper very much used American tactics throughout his 10 years in power, but especially in the last four. The far right social agenda when he had a majority was done for a reason.

      Go back to the posts here during the election, and see how many Conservatives were hoping for a low turnout. They took any little piece as a way to show that people weren't coming out to vote.

      To not open your eyes and brain to what's happening is very closed minded. Ghost, I'm actually a former federal PC voter who would like for a reason to vote for the Conservatives again. A dysfunctional right wing party actually allows Trudeau and Liberal parties to spend away, as there is not real viable right wing opposition that can be elected. That's not at all good for the country or its finances. As seen in Ambrose and Pallister, the extreme far right has taken over right wing parties in this country because of the brainwashing from the States. It's time for right wing parties to be Canadian again, before this country makes a very big shift to the left. It's starting to happen now, and Conservatives have no one to blame but themselves.

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    5. Wow, still in 2015!~What's it like back there?

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    6. If you think Trump and the Bushes are in, on or within the same "faction" of the Republican party you are way off.

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    7. Ghost, the Conservatives will be paying for Harper for at least 12 years, if not a generation. Harper unleashed the Trump ideals to the right wing, and it ain't going back into the bottle any time soon. And it's getting worse by the day.

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    8. Karl Rove and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were all part of the Republican establishment.

      The Republican establishment cannot stand Donald Trump. It's not even clear that Trump is a Republican. Nor is it clear what his objective is in this election.

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    9. 11Matt11,

      You wish. The public has moved on from Harper, everyopne seems to have moved on but, you. Talk about being a poor winner. Perhaps, I'll just point out that William Lyon Mackenzie King promised "Homes for Heroes" during the 1921 election and failed to deliver! For Shame -For Shame-Liberals say one thing then do another. Or perhaps you focus on the former Conservative leader because Liberals have much to answer for: Not funding the Missing Women Inquiry adequately (beingt a prime example): Justin's $40 million committment will only cover an estimated 40% of the costs!-Liberals they say one thing...

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    10. Yeah Liberals actually put some money into the inquiry after Harper refused to !! Bad Harper !!

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    11. @11matt11,

      12 years? Shouldn't that be 10 or 15? 10 years is just one more LPC majority victory. Beyond that, the good and bad of Harper is his personalization of the CPC. Unlike the dislike of the PC and Brian Mulroney for introducing the GST and the failure of the Charlottetown and Meech Lake Accords (or Trudeau Sr. with the NEP), Harper hasn't done lasting damage to the party image.

      We've turned the page and need to wait until next year to see who will be the new face of the CPC, and subsequently, which direction the party will shift.

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    12. Ghost, latest best PM poll: Trudeau 53%, Ambrose/Any Conservative 11.3%. Even during the worst years after Mulroney or Joe Clark was it never that bad. Harper opened the Trump bigot and racist bottle for Conservatives, and it simply ain't going back in any time soon. Go over and read the CPC facebook page. My gosh. Many Canadians are simply shocked and what they've seen and read, during the election, and after it.

      Canadians will forget many political mistakes and gaffes from any party, but they never ever forget hateful prejudice and bigotry. This will hang over the Conservatives for decades - at least. And that might actually be understating it. This is not the US. We simply won't accept that in Canada. Ever. If you don't think so, then you live in a very different Canada than millions of us live in.

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    13. They're badly undefunding the Inquiry. Wally Oppal-A Liberal- estimated a national Inquiry to cost $100 million. The Liberals gave just 40% of the estimated cost. Why? Bad Justin, He talks a good game but, has no iontention of funding Indigenous services, treaty rights, or the Crown's obligation to Indigenous people. He's worse than Harper-At least Harper was honest with people. Justin raises peoples hopes only to not follow through on his commitments! What an insult to all the missing women!

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    14. Was there a lien on further investigation that I didn't hear about? Or does every bill need to be allotted 100% of the estimate in the first year? As of now, there is the political capital to give further funding in 2017 and raise the issue's profile again (possibly as chaff against a future blunder).

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    15. Justin doesn't want to commit-what more is there to say. Yes, he could decide to continue funding next year but, why keep it a secret? Commit! Keep your promises! Justin is being too clever by half.

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    16. What promise is the LPC not keeping? The exact platform promise was: "We will immediately launch a national public inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls in Canada, to seek recommendations on concrete actions that governments, law enforcement, and others can take to solve these crimes and prevent future ones."

      Adequate funding wasn't part of the promise, only an assumption of others. $40M is better than nothing. Too many inquiries are started with a big bang then disappear from the agenda for years, often wondering far from their originally intended course.

      How often was Harper accused of failing to commit/keep promises 80 days after the election? The closest thing that comes to mine is agreeing to meet the Kelowna Accord targets, but refusing to fund any action.

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    17. Only an assumption? Are you for real? So, they (Justin Trudeau, leader of the Liberal party and now prime minister) promises to "immediately launch" a public inquiry but, you argue funding was not part of the promise? Get Bent! Seriously. Aboriginal Women deserve better than Liberals ferreting out of promises that hold emotional, spiritual importance for them not to mention safety implications. The Government is not even 3 months old and already they are trying to rescind one of their marquee promises-Too little change, too much same old Liberal arrogance!

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    18. Yes, the level of funding was assumed, not promised. I won't argue what level of funding Aboriginal Women deserve, but $40M for an inquiry under the LPC is much better than $0 under the CPC.

      If Harper had set the bar higher, than maybe there would be more room to complain that promises have been broken. I seem to recall Triple-E Senate reform was a marquee CPC promise up until the point they got into office.

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  4. There are about 80-90 ridings in Canada though where Trump-like Republican tactics play out very well, and they view even Harper as too moderate or even too liberal. If the Reform Party is reborn, the Liberals will be in power for an eternity...and those ridings are NOT looking for Red Toryism or "liberal-lite" policies.

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    1. @Craig,

      Looking at the first-second combinations of 2015, there were 192 LPC/CPC contests, 93 LPC/NDP contests, and 29 NDP/CPC contest (21 involving BQ and 3 involving Green or Other). Thus, there were 116 ridings where the CPC fell to third or worse. Looking at levels of high support, the CPC had 42 success results over 50%, 44 between 40-50%, 8 between 35-40%, and 5 under 35%. It's hard to come up with the analysis that 80-90 ridings think the CPC under Harper is too liberal.

      Any notion of a benifical split between the Reform-wing and PC-wing of the CPC is premised on the twin ideas of a IRV and some sort of alliance between the RW party and the PC party. The PCs could steal support from Red Tories currently voting LPC, while the RWs could play to the base.

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  5. Election campaign, events, party momentum etc obviously can change everything...though I think unless some miracle happens the NDP will lose, and the PC's will win. Minority vs Majority seems the only question. I am not sure it will be possible to keep them to a Minority, no matter how well the Liberals do within the city of Winnipeg

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    1. With 43%, 29%, 22% I would predict a small PC majority 31, 17, 9. With the Insightrix poll, I think it would be close, do the Liberals have enough votes in enough ridings to come up the middle in Winnipeg? Probably yes to stop ma Tory majority but, likely not enough to form a minority Government: 27, 21, 9.

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    2. I think your assessment of how the two sets of poll numbers translate into seats is about right apart from the fact that you don't think the NDP will lose any seats going from 22% to 19.
      Probe conducted 2 riding polls last month in Brandon. I wonder if the WFP will be keen to see them conduct some in the capital?

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    3. Well, these numbers are just estimates. I could see the NDP winning as few as four seats with them. Would the NDP lose an extra seat going from 22%-19%? Quite possibly but, on the flip side I don't think 22% is enough for them to capture that extra seat in the first place.

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    4. Yeah, with these numbers four might be a better estimate for the NDP.

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  6. It doesn't matter what "news" outlet you turn to, any chance commentators get to depict NDP parties in a negative light is ceased upon. Liberal bias knows no bounds.

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    1. I believe you mean "seized upon". So Sun News and the National Post are now Liberal organizations because they don't support the NDP?

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