Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Trudeau still tops Nanos PM poll; Watson approval ratings high

The latest installment of the Nanos weekly tracking poll still has Justin Trudeau well ahead on who Canadians think is the best person to be prime minister.

He topped the poll with 50.2%, followed by Thomas Mulcair at 13% and Rona Ambrose at 12.9%. Elizabeth May scored 5.1%, while Rhéal Fortin was at 1.3%.

Compared to the last completely independent sample (recall that Nanos employs a four-week rolling poll with weekly updates), Trudeau is down a little more than three points. Ambrose is also down, but that previous sample included some numbers for Stephen Harper, so it is an apples to oranges comparison.

Trudeau's drop is within the margin of error, but it will be interesting to track these independent samples rather than just the week-to-week variations. I'll put together a chart for that once Nanos's poll chugs along for a little longer.

Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson boasts high approval rating

Forum Research put out a poll on Ottawa issues today. They are virtually all of very local concern, so I invite you to peruse Forum's report.

But Mayor Jim Watson's approval rating is of note. Forum pegs it at 73%, with just 27% of Ottawa residents disapproving of Watson. His numbers are high across the board, particularly among Ontario Liberal and Ontario NDP supporters. But even a narrow majority of PC supporters in the city support Watson, who in a former life was an Ontario Liberal MPP and cabinet minister.

Note that Watson took 76% of the vote in Ottawa's 2014 municipal election.

8 comments:

  1. And we can expect Trudeau to lead this poll by significant numbers for at least two if not four years. Nobody else has anyhting like him !!

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    1. Give him a budget or two to defend, the financial realities of the world, and a new Conservative leader to worry about.

      Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

      I wouldn't be surprised if Trudeau won a second majority, but I think it's crazy to predict such a thing this early.

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    2. We'll definitely be in a different place by 2017, when the CPC chooses their new leader. Of 11 potential candidates (Bernier, Chong, Clement, Ford, Kenney, Leitch, MacKay, Nicholson, Poilievre, Raitt, Rempel), there are three women (2 under 50 at the next general election), four under 50, three between 50 and 54, three between 55 and 58, and one over 65. Thus, there is a high chance of the CPC having a young dynamic leader who can re-energize and broaden the party.

      I prefer all parties to have solid leadership, so there is real choice on the political spectrum.

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    3. What you are both ignoring is Justin's persona. Because he comes across as no politician I can remember on TV !!

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    4. Russia does. His name is Putin. Entirely focused on himself instead of running a country.

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    5. I can think of many politicians with strong cults of personality: JFK, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Nelson Mandela, Aung San Suu Kyi, etc.

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    6. That is a little mean, even though I agree with the basic statement-Justin IMO is an egotist. Truth be told it is probably better if Justin lets the more experienced hands of John MacCallum, Bill Morneau, Harjitt Sajjan, and Scott Brison run the country. He's like George W. Bush, a figurehead for Dick Cheney (this explains why Justin and The Queen get along so famously). Justin is a figurehead for Bay St. which is keeping a close eye on him with Morneau in Finance.

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    7. Which is why liberalism is conservatism with a smile. Trudeau felt his precious Liberal party was in trouble and was on the verge of disaster. Trudeau coming back has caused a Liberal insurgence, but what will happen after Trudeau. Liberalism itself is just making a normalizing of neoliberalism, when people have lost faith in moderate politics all over the West.

      I believe that Trudeau will lead the party for as long as Harper but the country needs more options rather than careerists and people just pushing their agendas.

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