B.C. NDP on track for win, but doubts remain

The penultimate update to the projection and forecast for tomorrow night's election in British Columbia shows the gap in popular support widening between the B.C. New Democrats and the B.C. Liberals, but the  margin in the seat projection tightening up. Adrian Dix and the NDP retain the advantage across every poll, but disagreement in some of the last surveys of the campaign leave the question of how it will all turn out unanswered.

The NDP is projected to have between 43.6% and 47.4% support, while the Liberals stand at between 35.6% and 39.4%. The precise projection puts the NDP at 45.5% and the Liberals at 37.5%, a gain of 2.5 points for the NDP compared to the last projection and an uptick of 0.7 points for the Liberals. The model estimates that the odds the Liberals can overcome this eight point margin in the four days between the most recent polls and election day to be just 2.8%.

The New Democrats are now projected to win between 45 and 56 seats, putting them in majority territory, while the Liberals stand at between 26 and 40 seats. The most likely outcome, at 48 seats for the NDP and 36 for the Liberals, represents a swing of four seats from the NDP to the Liberals since the last projection. A margin of eight seats is not very much, and the model estimates the odds of the Liberals being able to win the most seats with these numbers to be 21.4% (this takes into account both polling error and seat modelling error).

The gain in seats for the B.C. Liberals occurred primarily in the Interior and North, as the party narrowed the margin in the region and is now projected to win the majority of seats there.

But on the face of it, the New Democrats seem to be in a strong position. Their projected vote and seat haul does not overlap with the Liberals, at least based on current polling information. But what about how things might change between the last last poll and the actual vote?

This is difficult to judge, as the polls have not been very consistent. I have certainly seen more disagreement, but things are getting close enough where the variations start to make a difference. Accordingly, the forecasting model is unable to make a very precise estimate of likely outcomes tomorrow night: 20 to 77 seats for the NDP and 6 to 63 for the Liberals. This should take care of any Alberta-esque situation, but apart from that there is not much to glean from the forecasts.

More polls are expected to be released today, so hopefully this will make things more clear. Unless these final polls start to show some major shifts in the final hours of the campaign, I will have the final projection up on the site before midnight (ET) tonight to incorporate whatever polls emerge by the end of the evening. If these final polls are not clear as to what is going on, I may wait until the morning to see if any other surveys are released before midnight Pacific time to post the final projection. This is not my preferred option, however, as I much rather have my final projection numbers on the site before election day, if only to follow the spirit of the polling blackout laws in British Columbia.

Update: With all the late night polls I am expecting, I don't think I'll be able to get any numbers up before midnight Pacific time. As I am writing from Ottawa, trying to get the final numbers and an analysis posted within, at most, 90 minutes by 3 AM and also have it be coherent seems impossible. If the goal was to get something up before midnight and stay true to the spirit of the province's election laws, it does not make much difference if I post at 12:30 AM or 6:00 AM Pacific time. So, check for the final projection tomorrow morning.

Friday afternoon was a polling smorgasbord, as surveys from four different firms were released in a matter of hours. Though they do show some broadly similar numbers, the polls were suggesting conflicting trends and had some of their own methodological issues to note. Let's go through them one-by-one.

Forum's poll for the National Post is the oldest of the lot, having been conducted on May 8. Just as they did with their previous survey, Forum suggests a much closer race: 43% for the NDP and 41% for the Liberals.

Compared to their last poll of Apr. 30, the NDP had picked up four points and the Liberals had gained six, as support for the Greens and Conservatives fell by four and three points, respectively.

The lower support for the Conservatives and Greens is not too surprising, as more British Columbians become aware of a lack of a candidate in their own ridings and as voters decide that this may not be the election for a protest vote. The narrow gap between the NDP and Liberals appears to be somewhat out-of-step, but sampling error could easily push the margin further apart without making the poll explicitly wrong.

But Forum did have the same issue that they had in their previous survey, under-sampling people who said they voted for the NDP in 2009. By Forum's numbers, 50% of people who said they could remember who they voted for in 2009 had voted for the Liberals, while only 32% had voted for the NDP (actual result: 45% to 42%). Granted, four years is a long time and memories of the federal election could be mucking things up a little, but this is likely why Forum is showing a narrower gap than the other firms. This should lead us to believe that the wider margins that the other polls have recorded are probably more realistic.

The gap of 14 points registered by Justason Market Intelligence may be too much on the wide side, however. The firm pegs NDP support at 45% and the Liberals at 31%, a drop of four points for the NDP since their last survey of Apr. 15-23, and a gain of four points for the Liberals. The trends are not very informative, however, as Justason seems to have used only their online panel for this survey, whereas their last poll used a hybrid telephone-online methodology. And since Justason was last in the field at an earlier time than Forum, Ipsos-Reid, and Angus-Reid, comparing the trends from this poll to those others is also not very helpful. But it is interesting to note that Justason is nevertheless recording a narrowing margin, and lower support for the Conservatives. That is indeed an important trend, particularly in terms of Liberal fortunes.

Ipsos-Reid's poll for Global News also showed a narrowing gap, with the NDP falling two points from Ipsos's Apr. 30-May 2 poll to 43%, and the Liberals increasing by two points to 37%. That shrank the margin from 10 points to six, but those changes in support are not statistically significant. The Greens and Conservatives were unchanged at 10% and 7%, respectively.

The last poll of the day, and the most recent, was by Angus-Reid for the Globe and Mail and CTV. It, however, showed a widening margin: the NDP was up four points to 45% and the Liberals were up two points to 36%. But here again the trends are difficult to assess. Angus-Reid changed their methodology to present respondents with an accurate local ballot. That means that people in ridings without a Green or Conservative candidate were not given that option.

Accordingly, the Greens fell three points to 9% and the Conservatives dropped four points to 6%. Was the gain that Angus-Reid recorded for the Liberals and NDP due to shifting support or the accurate ballot? We don't know, but this methodology should provide better results, which may lead us to believe that a margin of this size is more realistic than the one recorded by Forum.

It should be noted that these polls are not particularly contradictory. Having the NDP at either 43% or 45% and the Conservatives between 6% and 8% puts these firms well within each other's margin of error (assuming a probability sample, etc.). The Greens are a little less consistent, with between 8% and 14%, but somewhere around 9% is probably about right. The Liberal numbers are more problematic. With Justason's poll, the difference is 10 points among these four surveys. Even without it, the difference is five points. That is stretching the MOE.

Putting aside the province-wide numbers for a moment, are there any other under-lying trends across the Forum, Ipsos, and Angus-Reid polls (as noted, Justason's previous poll was not in the field at the same time as the last poll of these three firms)?

Regionally, they all show generally stable numbers in metropolitan Vancouver. All three put the NDP at either 44% or 46% and no different than one or two points from their last poll. The Liberals were at either 38% or 41%, with Forum showing the bigger uptick. All three polls showed the NDP with a good lead over the Liberals on Vancouver Island (the Liberals were tightly grouped at either 29% or 32%), and all three showed a drop in Green support (two points for Ipsos, four for Forum, and six for Angus, though all are ostensibly within the MOE). Ipsos and Angus put the NDP and Liberals about even in the Interior and North, but Forum put the Liberals way ahead. What is going on there is less clear.

What about demographically? All three showed a gender gap, but of different magnitudes. Angus-Reid had the NDP up by three points among men, Ipsos-Reid had the Liberals up by four, and Forum had them up by 11. Among women, though, all three had the NDP at either 14 or 15 points over the Liberals. By age group, both Ipsos and Angus had the New Democrats ahead among the oldest (and most enthusiastic) voters, but Forum gave the edge to the Liberals.

On the personal front, Ipsos had Christy Clark up three points on the Best Premier question, giving her 34% to Dix's 31% (-3). Angus-Reid had Dix ahead with 30% (+4) to Clark's 25% (+1). Forum and Angus-Reid had almost identical approval ratings for the two leaders, however. Angus-Reid had Dix at 42% approval to 47% disapproval, and Clark at 33% approval to 61% disapproval. Forum had the split at 41-48 for Dix and 35-57 for Clark. Those may be very important numbers come election day.

So, for all the new polling data we have it would appear that we are left with more questions. Is the margin between the Liberals and New Democrats narrowing, widening, or holding steady? Is the NDP poised for a landslide, or tight win, or a shock? Hopefully the polls to be released within the next 18 hours will clear things up. I have a hunch, though, that they may just confuse us more.

B.C. race tightens, but NDP still in control

Though the margin between the B.C. Liberals and B.C. New Democrats has tightened since the last projection update of Apr. 19 (based on polling data running up to Apr. 14), the NDP remains the odds-on favourite to win the election of May 14.

The New Democrats are now projected to take 47.6% of the vote, down 0.3 points from Apr. 19. The Liberals gained 2.8 points to hit 32.4%, the highest they have been since mid-January, while the B.C. Conservatives dropped 3.3 points to 8.5%. The B.C. Greens fell 0.7 points to 8.2% in the projection, while support for independents and other parties increased to 3.4%.

The NDP is now projected to win 59 seats, down six, while the Liberals are pegged to take 25. The ranges have widened considerably, to between 45 and 75 seats for the New Democrats and between eight and 39 seats for the Liberals. The Greens are now projected to be capable of winning as many as three seats with current polling support.

There are some important reasons why the projection and forecast ranges have increased so dramatically, and support for the Conservatives and other parties has changed so much.

First, the methodological shift in the projection. As the official list of candidates was released over the weekend, the projection model has been updated to accurately reflect the field of candidates that British Columbians will be able to vote for on May 14. In the case of the independents and fringe parties, this allowed me to estimate how much support they will get in each riding and, therefore, in each region of the province. This is why support for independents and other parties has increased from 1.8% to 3.4%. 

More importantly, an adjustment has been added to the vote projection model to take into account the fact that the Conservatives have put up only 56 candidates. That means they are running in only 66% of ridings, making it extremely unlikely that they will be able to take as much of the vote as the polls are awarding them. Most respondents who intend to vote Conservative likely have no idea whether or not there will be a Conservative name on the ballot, and if they find out between now and the election their change in support will not be reflected. And, in the past, there has been a strong correlation between polls over-estimating a party's support and a less-than full slate. Accordingly, the Conservatives will now have the "no seat in the legislature" adjustment applied to their polling numbers, which means a reduction by a factor of 0.73.

Lastly, because of the updated candidates list, the projection has to be tweaked to ensure accurate distribution of support. For example, prior to this update Green support was spread over the 14 ridings in the Vancouver Island region. But since they are only running 11 candidates in the region, that same support needs to be distributed over 11 ridings instead. All else being equal, that increases their support in each riding where they have a candidate. The same has had to be done to the Conservatives.

As for the wider ranges, this is due to the campaign having started and the numbers of polls having dropped. Prior to an election campaign, the projection model reduces the weight of a poll with each passing week. During a campaign, that weight is reduced by the same amount each day. The projection has had only two polls added that were taken during the campaign (Angus-Reid, Apr. 24-25 and Justason Market Intelligence, Apr. 15-23) meaning that the pre-campaign polls now have an extremely low weight in the model. And as the projection dates a poll by its median date, that means the Justason poll is considered six full days older than the Angus-Reid poll. That reduces its weight considerably, and results in the Angus-Reid poll taking up roughly 93% of the aggregation right now. Due to the Angus-Reid being almost the only poll being considered by the model, the uncertainty of where the parties currently stand is very high.

This will undoubtedly change as more polls are released to capture the effect of tonight's debate. But keep that in mind when looking at the numbers in this latest update.

The Justason poll, released today via The Tyee (surveying 600 via telephone and internet), is interesting as it shows the NDP with a 22-point lead. That is unchanged from Justason's last poll from the end of January, suggesting that little has changed since then. Justason gives the NDP 49% to 27% for the Liberals, 12% for the Greens, and 11% for the Conservatives. Like other surveys, it shows the Greens doing very well on Vancouver Island.

The Angus-Reid poll was released on Friday via CTV and The Globe and Mail (surveying 812 via their online panel) but was conducted more recently than Justason's survey. The poll gives the NDP 45%, the Liberals 31%, the Conservatives 11%, and the Greens 10% support.

Compared to Angus-Reid's last survey taken just before the campaign began, that represents a gain of three points for the Liberals, a drop of one point for the Conservatives, and a decline of three for the Greens. The NDP held steady.

A sign that the Liberals are making up ground on the New Democrats? We will have to see what other surveys show, as the three-point increase in Liberal support is within the margin of error (or would be, if the sample was probabilistic). There is good reason to suspect a statistical wobble, as the Liberals have been hovering between 28% and 31% in Angus-Reid's polls going back to November 2012, and the Justason survey suggests no reason to believe there has been a big change in voting support. 

Also of note are two riding polls that were released by the Prince George Citizen last week for the ridings of Prince George-Valemount and Prince George-Mackenzie. Conducted by Oraclepoll on Apr. 17-20 and Apr. 15-18 (respectively) and surveying 300 people in each riding, the survey found the Liberals narrowly ahead. In Prince George-Valemount, incumbent Liberal Shirley Bond had 46% to 41% for the NDP's Sherry Ogasawara and 10% for the Conservative candidate. In Prince George-Mackenzie, rookie Liberal Mike Morris had 44% to 37% for the NDP's Bobby Deepak, 14% for the Conservative candidate, and 5% for the Greens.

In part due to these two polls, but also the better Liberal numbers in the Interior/North in both the Justason and Angus-Reid polls, the two Prince George ridings have gone over to the Liberals from the NDP in the projection. But the results of these surveys are similar to the ones that were done for the two Kamloops ridings, showing stronger Liberal support than expected. Perhaps this is a methodological bias on Oraclepoll's part, or perhaps this is a sign that the Liberals will not be easy to defeat in the Interior and North. It is something to keep an eye on. 

B.C. NDP gains in Vancouver

If anyone thought that the B.C. Liberals were inexorably on the rise, a poll by Justason Market Intelligence put a damper on that, as it put the B.C. New Democrats 22 points ahead of the governing party. Newer polls will tell us if that turns out to be an outlier result, but the forecast now gives the New Democrats a 96.4% chance of winning the popular vote on May 14, up from 93.4%.

The projection as of Feb. 1 gives the NDP 48.2% of the vote and 66 seats, up from 46.5% and 56 seats that had been projected with the poling data running up toJan. 21. That is a big gain in seats for the NDP, primarily in metropolitan Vancouver where the Liberals have dropped more than six points. Province-wide, the Liberals are projected to have 30% support and would win 18 seats, a drop of 2.9 percentage points. If an election were held today, the NDP would have a 100% chance of winning the most seats - the gap is simply too large for polling or modelling error to miss the call.

The B.C. Conservatives are up 0.9 points to 11.6%, while the Greens are up 0.3 points to 8.5%. Both parties are projected to win no seats, but their projected high does put them in a position to win one. The NDP and Liberal seat ranges still do not overlap, at 49-76 and 6-36, respectively.

The forecast for May is not good for the Liberals, as their forecasted high is only 39% support. That could give them as many as 56 seats, however, so a win is still not out of the question. But the time remaining for the Liberals is slipping away, as are their odds of prevailing.

I analyzed the Justason poll and a leader poll by Angus-Reid for The Huffington Post Canada, and I invite you to read that article.

Justason was last in the field between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1, and since then the NDP did not budge at 48% support. The Liberals were down two to 26%, the Conservatives up three to 12%, and the Greens were down two to 11%.

This is a reversal of fortunes for the Liberals, who were gaining (modestly) in every poll from other firms. We will have to wait and see whether Justason is capturing a downturn in Liberal support before the others, or is merely pegging them at the low end of the margin of error.

The poll had some odd regional results, as it gave the New Democrats a wide lead in Vancouver but a narrow one on Vancouver Island. Many polls have shown the opposite to be the case, and indeed this is the lowest and highest Liberal and NDP results I have on record in Vancouver since at least the end of 2011. The NDP number on Vancouver Island is the lowest in any poll since December 2011, though it should be pointed out that Ipsos-Reid had the Liberals at 34% support on Vancouver Island as recently as November.

With less than 100 days to go before the vote, the B.C. Liberals cannot afford to be taking a step backwards. And as the NDP vote looks rock solid, there are few prospects for further gains. If Christy Clark turns things around, it will be a remarkable comeback.

B.C. NDP continues to hold wide lead

A new poll by Justason Market Intelligence on the provincial voting intentions of British Columbians was released over the weekend, so what better time to check-in on the province and look at a Forum poll released at the end of February that had fallen through the cracks. You can also read my take on the numbers at The Huffington Post Canada here.

Let's start with the Justason numbers, which are the most recent. I don't have a poll from Justason in my database, and a look at the website tells me they haven't polled the provincial voting intentions of British Columbians for several years, if ever. They seem more concerned with Vancouver's municipal politics.

Nevertheless, Justason's numbers align generally well with the most recent polls we've seen from the likes of Ipsos-Reid and Angus-Reid since the beginning of 2012.

They have the B.C. New Democrats leading with 45% support, well ahead of the B.C. Liberals. They stand at 31%, trailed by the B.C. Conservatives at 14%. The Greens register 8% support.

This sort of split, with the Conservatives in the teens and the Liberals around 30%, seems to be the consensus opinion on what is going on in British Columbia with the notable exception of Forum's results, which have tended to up Conservative support at the expense of the Liberals.

Forum's poll has the NDP at 42%, up three points since they were last in the field on January 23. The Liberals are down two points to 24%, while the Conservatives are steady at 22% support. The Greens are up one to 10%.

The New Democrats lead on Vancouver Island with 49% (+8), in the Interior/North with 41% (+4), and in Vancouver/Lower Mainland with 40% (+1). The Liberals trail in second with 27% (unchanged) in Vancouver and on Vancouver Island at 18% (also unchanged). The Conservatives are second in the Interior/North with 26%, up one point.

These polls result in mildly different legislatures. Forum sees the biggest romp for the New Democrats with 65 seats according to ThreeHundredEight's simple model (a full model has yet to be constructed), while the Liberals win 13 seats. The Conservatives take five seats while two independents are elected.

In Vancouver/Lower Mainland, the NDP wins 29 seats with 11 going to the Liberals. The NDP sweeps all 14 seats on Vancouver Island and wins 22 seats in the Interior/North, with five going to the Conservatives and two to the Liberals.

With Justason's numbers, the New Democrats still win a big majority with 58 seats, with 25 going to the Liberals and one apiece to the Conservatives and independents.

Vancouver delivers 25 seats to the NDP, with the Liberals taking 15. The NDP sweeps the Island, while taking 19 seats in the Interior/North to 10 for the Liberals and one for the Conservatives.

Either result is great for the NDP, while the Liberals would prefer to avoid the debacle of Forum's numbers. Being reduced to only 13 MLAs, with five Conservatives elected, would likely be a bit of a shock to the Liberals and a boon to the Conservatives. How the two parties would react is difficult to say, but it could begin the sort of three-party system most other provinces have, and one that would benefit the NDP in British Columbia.

As mentioned in my Huffington Post Canada article, both Christy Clark and John Cummins have net negative approval ratings, while Adrian Dix scores a net positive. But it is interesting to look at how supporters view the leaders. Both Dix and Cummins do very well among their supporters, with approval ratings of 74% and 75%, respectively. Clark, however, has the approval of 66% of Liberal supporters. That's not a huge gap, but the lack of enthusiasm certainly does not bode well for the party's chances in 2013.

Tight federal race in British Columbia

Two new polls show that the race in British Columbia is a close one between the federal Conservatives and the New Democrats, while Stephen Harper's party has gained nationwide since late February.

EKOS Research was last in the field for iPolitics.ca between February 21-28, and since then the Conservatives have picked up 3.9 points to lead with 35.1% nationally. The New Democrats are up 0.5 points to 29.7%, while the Liberals are down 2.1 points to only 19.6% support.

The Greens are down 0.2 points to 8.1%, while the Bloc Québécois is also down 0.2 points to 5.8%.

EKOS thus joins some of the other recent polls that have put Liberal support back around 20% with the Conservatives in the mid-30s. I suspect the NDP leadership race, which comes to a close this weekend, might change things again.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up two points to 35.3%, narrowly edging out the New Democrats. They trail with 33.2%, down 3.3 points. The Liberals are well behind with 16.3% support, down 1.1 points since the end of February. The Greens are doing well here with 14.3%, up 3.3 points.

Justason Market Intelligence also released their latest numbers on the federal scene in the province. Their poll, conducted from February 24 to March 7, so only overlapping with EKOS's survey on March 6 and 7, found the New Democrats leading with 40% support. The Conservatives placed second with 30% while the Liberals were in third with 20%. The Greens brought up the rear with 8%.

Considering the margin of error, these two polls show that the race is very tight in British Columbia. It is clearly a contest between the New Democrats and the Conservatives, who seem to trade the lead with every poll: the NDP has led in seven of the last 15 polls stretching back to December, with the Conservatives leading in the other eight.

British Columbia will be an important battleground in 2015, as its seat allotment increases to 42. If Justason's numbers were repeated on election day, the New Democrats would take 18 of the province's current 36 seats, with 11 going to the Conservatives, six to the Liberals, and one to the Greens. With 42 seats, the NDP could win 21 to the Tories' 13 and the Liberals seven.

If EKOS's numbers were the election's results, the Conservatives would win 18 seats to 13 for the NDP, four for the Liberals, and one for the Greens on the current 36-seat map. With 42 seats, the Conservatives could win 21 to 15 for the NDP and five for the Liberals.

For the New Democrats, that means an extra three to nine seats. For the Conservatives, that means maintaining their current number or losing eight B.C. MPs. It might not be earth-shattering, but if it is a close election it could be the difference between a majority and a minority.

Elsewhere in EKOS's polling, the Conservatives lead with 34.6% in Ontario (+1.4), 61.2% in Alberta (+7.6), 31.9% in Atlantic Canada (+4.5), and 45.9% in the Prairies (+7.6).

The New Democrats lead in Quebec with 30.6%, up 2.3 points since the end of February. The party is also running second in Ontario (31.0%, +3.0), Alberta (18.6%, -1.8), and the Prairies (39.2%, +4.4). The Liberals are running second with 26.1% in Atlantic Canada (-2.6) while the Bloc Québécois is second in Quebec with 24.5% (-0.5).

With EKOS's results, the Conservatives win 147 seats on the current 308-seat map, with 96 seats going to the New Democrats, 52 to the Liberals, 12 to the Bloc Québécois, and one to the Greens. The NDP and Liberals could combine for a total of 148 seats, but that is seven short of a majority.

The Conservatives win 18 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 16 in the Prairies, 54 in Ontario, 17 in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north. They could win 165 seats on the 338-seat map, increasing their share from 47.7% to 48.8% of all seats.

The New Democrats win 13 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, 10 in the Prairies, 27 in Ontario, 39 in Quebec, five in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north. They'd likely win 104 seats in the expanded House, their share decreasing from 31.2% to 30.8%.

The Liberals win four seats in British Columbia, two in the Prairies, 25 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, 13 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north. With a 338-seat House of Commons, the Liberals might win 56 seats, their share decreasing from 16.9% to 16.6%.

The Bloc Québécois wins its 12 seats in Quebec, of course, while the Greens win their one seat in British Columbia.

Using Justason's B.C. results, the national seat total would be 140 Conservatives, 101 NDP, 54 Liberals, 12 BQ, and one Green. This is a significant difference, since the NDP and Liberals could now combine for 155 seats, the bare minimum for a majority. On the 338-map, however, the result would be 157 Conservatives to 110 NDP and 58 Liberals. The combination of NDP and Liberal seats would be short of a majority by one, requiring the Greens to come on board.

This is a nice demonstration of the potential importance of British Columbia in an election that resembles EKOS's forecast. But other things would be at play: those 12 Bloc seats cause more trouble to the NDP than British Columbia's close contest, while maintaining their high support in Ontario and the Prairies would be absolutely necessary. And, in this case, the Conservative result of 22.9% in Quebec puts them in the running to hold on to power, particularly if the party does not do well in a province like British Columbia. Every seat might count.