Alberta NDP leads beyond a reasonable doubt

Political observers are starting to come around to the idea that the New Democrats might actually have a shot at winning, and that the 43-year-old Progressive Conservative dynasty might actually come to an end. But old habits die hard and everyone has been burned before, so you won't get much more than a 'might' out of anyone.

Two new polls make it very, very hard to argue that the New Democrats have anything but a comfortable lead in the Alberta provincial election.

The projection agrees, and has now bumped the NDP up to 39% support from 35% post-debate. Their seat haul hasn't changed much (they may be running up against their ceiling), with a range of between 28 and 47. Their range was 26 to 45 seats before.

The main shift has been between the PCs and the Wildrose, who have switched positions. The Tories are up four points to 29%, and could win between 17 and 45 seats (up from five to 31). That is a dramatic shift, and does now make a PC minority victory plausible. But it would require the NDP to come down a bit to the benefit of the Tories.

Wildrose has fallen sharply, by seven points to 25%. They are now projected to win between 11 and 22 seats, down from a range of 25 to 42 seats.

The New Democrats made their biggest gain in the 'rest of Alberta', going from 28% to 32% in the projection. The Tories were also up in the region, by six points to 32%, while Wildrose plummeted 10 points to 32%. It is a very close race in the heterogeneous region outside of the two main cities.

Not so in Edmonton, where the numbers have held steady. The NDP is ahead there with 57% to 21% for the PCs and 15% for Wildrose.

In Calgary, the Tories picked up three points to move into a narrow lead with 33%, followed by the NDP at 29% (+1) and Wildrose at 27% (-4).

The two new polls out this morning are from firms that have not stepped into the campaign just yet. That makes it impossible to look at trends, but gives as some extra data points to compare to the numbers we've been from others.

The Return on Insight poll for the CBC showed the NDP leading very comfortably with 38%, followed by the Tories at 24% and Wildrose at 21%.

The Léger poll for the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal also put the NDP at 38%, with the PCs at 30% and Wildrose at 24%.

That both polls put the NDP at 38% shows that the party is indeed making some very significant inroads. Forum Research also had the NDP that high around the debate, while an EKOS poll that is forthcoming today will also show similar levels of support for the party.

The two polls also show the PCs moving into second place and Wildrose dropping into third, which is an interesting development. It certainly makes for a photo-finish. The PCs do seem to be rebounding. Whereas before Wildrose and the NDP appeared to be squeezing out the PCs, these new trends suggest that there could be a coalescing of an anti-NDP vote (in practice if not necessarily in motivation) that could boost the PCs by election day.

But it will still be a hard slog. The Léger poll found one-third of respondents choosing Rachel Notley as the best person to be premier, with Jim Prentice at only 24%. Brian Jean, at 11%, seems to be falling out of contention.

The population hasn't soured on him as much as they have on Prentice, however. Léger found that just 10% say their opinion of Prentice has improved over this campaign, compared to 51% who say it has worsened. Jean, by comparison, has a 17% to 26% split on the question. For Notley, 47% of Albertans say their opinion has improved, and just 9% say it has worsened. As long as the NDP can get their voters out, it doesn't seem like they are at considerable risk of shedding support in the final days of the campaign. It could come down to, then, what happens with the PCs and Wildrose.

The two polls also painted a broadly similar portrait of the regional breakdown, particularly in Edmonton. The NDP had 56% in the Léger poll, 57% in the RoI poll. For the Tories, that was 21% and 19%, respectively, and 16% and 11% for Wildrose.

Calgary was a close race for both pollsters, with the Tories in first (32% to 33%), the NDP in second (25% to 30%), and Wildrose in third (24% to 26%).

There was a bigger discrepancy in the rest of Alberta. RoI had the NDP at 34%, Wildrose at 28%, and the PCs at 22%. Léger, by comparison, had the PCs at 35%, the NDP at 30%, and Wildrose at 29%. The point of contention was primarily in terms of PC support - and that could mean a lot of seats.

The Return on Insight poll, for example, would result in about 44 seats for the NDP, 22 for the PCs, and 18 for Wildrose. That puts the NDP just above the majority mark, primarily due to the PCs' poor showing outside of Calgary and Edmonton.

The Léger poll, though, would give the PCs 41 seats, the NDP 35 seats, and Wildrose nine seats, pointing to a Tory minority. This is primarily due to the strong performance of the PCs outside of Edmonton and Calgary.

This demonstrates the problem the NDP might have on election night. Their vote is not nearly as well distributed as it could be, and they might fall short of winning the most seats even if they are up on the Tories by as many as eight points. The seat result on Tuesday night could be very counter-intuitive.

New Calgary Centre by-election poll

Late last night, Return on Insight released a new telephone survey of voting intentions for the upcoming Calgary Centre by-election race. The results generally fall in line with what Forum Research has been reporting, but the poll was heavily criticized on Twitter due to its source. After trading emails with Bruce Cameron, President of RoI, and after being provided with a copy of the raw data report, I believe the results of the poll are credible.

The live-caller survey was conducted November 20-21, so a few days after Forum's last poll of November 17 but just before the brouhaha over Justin Trudeau's newly rediscovered comments from 2010 about Alberta. However, the poll was conducted just as the comments made by David McGuinty were breaking, along with the lightning-quick apology and resignation as critic.

The poll found Joan Crockatt of the Conservatives ahead with 37% support, five points up on Harvey Locke of the Liberals, who was at 32%. That gap is within the margin of error, but again we see that in every poll Crockatt has had the advantage. The odds that all of these polls have been wrong in the same direction is quite low, making a Crockatt lead a very strong possibility.

Chris Turner of the Greens was at 17%, while Dan Meades of the New Democrats was at 12%. Another 2% said they would vote for other parties.

As this poll was done with live-callers, the undecided number is more reliable than what we get from IVR or online surveys (the last IVR poll had about 7% undecided). RoI finds the number of undecideds to be at 16%, while 12% of respondents said they wouldn't vote.

The cross-tabs of the poll has one interesting similarity with Forum's last survey. Though the sample sizes are very small, both Forum and RoI found that Crockatt was leading among voters aged 18-34, while the race was much closer among older voters. That is counter-intuitive, as Conservatives tend to do better among older voters. But there is some indication that younger voters in Alberta are far more conservative than their fellow Canadians, based on some other polling I have seen of Millennials. So, this may not be as unusual as it looks. If it is indeed the case, that does not bode well for Crockatt as this tranche of the electorate does not turnout in large numbers.

In terms of the gender gap, however, the polls are not in agreement. Forum's last poll found Crockatt with a three point edge among men and a seven point advantage among women, while RoI gave Crockatt a nine point lead among men and a two point edge among women.

As to the criticisms that Bruce Cameron is tied too closely to the Liberal campaign, this is what Cameron has to say:

"I am not doing any polling or paid work for the Locke campaign, despite a three second video clip of Harvey [Locke] ripped out of contest pre-writ by the Greens claiming I am ... Harvey is a good friend but I made it clear to him and the campaign manager Donn Lovett that I could not work on the campaign. Nevertheless, Harvey and I talk regularly as we have done often over the past 20 years."

At my request, Cameron sent me the poll's raw data. Having looked over the report, I have little reason to believe that this poll is any less credible than any other. The amount of weighting that was done was quite small (if only this sort of information was made available by some other firms), with the usual corrections being made to account for the low number of younger respondents. There are no major problems with the wording or ordering of the questions asked or anything of the sort. Though I do believe that pollsters should not get involved in politics or even give the impression of being supportive of or opposed to any party or candidate, there are many examples of this happening and I do not believe that it is necessarily a reason to discount a pollster's work without any other justification.

That being said, there is the potential that the poll is under-estimating Crockatt's support as the number of respondents who claimed to have voted Wildrose in the April 2012 election was about three-quarters of what it should be. This could be the "shy Tory"  effect at play, bad memory, or confusion between provincial and federal politics. We will find out on Monday. EDIT: An earlier version said that Wildrose support was registered as 1/3 of what it should be. After verifying with Cameron, this was apparently a glitch in coding. Nevertheless, Wildrose support was still somewhat under-represented, but perhaps not significantly so.

The poll included a few other interesting questions, including certainty to vote. The chart in the media report has some errors in terms of the certainty of all respondents to vote (and also contains a typo in the question, the actual question asked did indeed identify November 26 as election day), but the numbers for each of the parties appears to be correctly recording the certainty of decided voters. It says that 64% of Locke's supporters are certain to vote, compared to 67% for Crockatt, 72% for Turner, and 79% for Meades.

If we just use those findings and assume that it will represent turnout, Crockatt's advantage increases to 38% against 30% for Locke, 18% for Turner, and 14% for Meades.

The survey also asked non-Conservative-supporting respondents who they would choose if they could only select one 'progressive' candidate to defeat Crockatt. The result seems to be very favourable for Locke (40% to 17% for Turner and 14% for Meades), but if we remove the undecideds from the equation we get 56% for Locke, 24% for Turner, and 20% for Meades. That looks better for Locke than it actually is: on the regular voting intentions question, Locke is already getting 52% of the non-Conservative vote, compared to 28% for Turner and 20% for Meades. In other words, when asked this question most people were sticking with their original choice.

This poll does not disagree with Forum's last two surveys to any significant degree. Crockatt and Locke's support is well within the margin of error of Forum's last poll, while Turner's and Meades' is at the outer edges of it. We will have to wait and see if any more numbers will emerge over the weekend (Forum does enjoy the election-eve release). At this stage, Crockatt is still the odds-on favourite but both Turner and Locke could put up some impressive numbers. Will it be enough?

Gap narrows, but Wildrose still in control

Since the weekend, two polls have been released indicating that the margin between Wildrose and the Progressive Conservatives has shrunk to seven points in Alberta's provincial voting intentions. That means that, though Wildrose is still on track to win a majority government, the race has tightened up.

Since Apr. 13, the projection that incorporated all pre-debate polling, Wildrose has dropped 2.2 points and now sits at a projected 39.7% of the vote. The Tories have picked up 2.1 points and are now at 35.3%, their highest level of support since Mar. 29.

This reduces the gap between the two parties to 4.4 points. That is certainly less than the seven points forecast by the two recent polls, so now is a good time to remind readers that the vote projection model includes an adjustment that increases or decreases projected vote share. This adjustment is based on where a party sits in the legislature, and so indirectly incorporates a whole slew of intangibles: organization, enthusiasm, fundraising, and incumbency. Past federal and provincial elections have indicated that there is some relationship between polls over- or under-estimating a party's support and the position of that party in the legislature at dissolution: bigger parties tend to be under-estimated, smaller parties are over-estimated.

The New Democrats have moved into third with a gain 0.2 points. They now have a projected 11% support, just ahead of the Liberals at 10.8% (-0.3).

This tightening of the race means that the Tories have picked up nine seats in the projection since the debate, all at the expense of Wildrose. Danielle Smith's party is now projected to win 47 seats against 36 for the PCs and four for the NDP (unchanged).

The two new polls disagree with one another strongly at the regional level, but less so province-wide. The result is that Wildrose is projected to take between 36.7% and 42.7% of the vote, compared to a range of 31.8% to 38.8% for the PCs. The two parties overlap one another once again.

The NDP range has moved ahead of the Liberals, as the NDP would take between 9% and 13% of the vote if an election were held today, while the Liberals would only take between 9.5% and 11.9%.

Though the likely seat ranges for the Liberals and NDP remain unchanged, the Wildrose range has stretched downwards. They are projected to win between 27 and 74 seats, while the Progressive Conservatives can win between nine and 58 seats. This gives both parties the chance of forming a majority government, though the votes would have to swing heavily in the PCs' favour for them to win it.

Calgary vote projections

The biggest shift in support has taken place in Calgary, where Wildrose dropped 3.3 points and seven seats to 44.5% and 19 seats. The Tories picked up 4.3 points (thus, it would appear, stealing votes from the left as well as the right), and is now projected to take 34.8% of the vote in the city, as well as eight seats.

The Liberals are down 0.6 points to 11%, while the New Democrats are down 1.1 points to only 6.1% in the city.

The ranges are widest here, however, as the Tories could conceivably take between 24.8% and 44.8% of the vote in the city, giving them between zero and 19 seats. Wildrose, meanwhile, could take between 37.5% and 51.5% of the vote, giving them between eight and 27 seats. The race in the city is quite difficult to pin down at this stage.

Edmonton is a little clearer - but only a little. The Tories are up 0.3 points to 39%, while Wildrose is down 0.9 points to 26.4%. The New Democrats are virtually unchanged, down 0.1 point to 16.3%, while the Liberals are up 0.3 points to 14.2%. The Alberta Party has picked up 0.3 points and stands at 2.6% support. This all adds up to 20 seats for the Tories, five for Wildrose, and four for the New Democrats.

But with the recent polls disagreeing on who leads in the provincial capital, the ranges for the Tories and Wildrose now overlap: 32% to 46% for the PCs and 19.1% to 33.7% for Wildrose. This means between eight and 26 seats for the Tories and between one and 18 seats for Wildrose. The NDP, meanwhile, could win as much as 19.9% of the vote and seven seats, while the Liberals could take 18.2% of the vote and three seats.

In the rest of the province, things are more clear cut. Wildrose is down 2.9 points to 47.3% and two seats to 23, while the Tories are up 0.2 points to 30.9% and two seats to eight. The New Democrats are up 2.4 points to 10.4%, while the Liberals are up 0.2 points to 7.4%. The ranges put Wildrose support at between 43.2% and 51.4% (18-29 seats) and the Tories at between 27.8% and 34% (1-13 seats), meaning we can definitively say that Wildrose is ahead outside the two cities.

The Return on Insight poll done for the CBC puts Wildrose at 43% to 36% for the Tories, with the Liberals at 11% and the NDP at 9%. It is impossible to really look at trends with this survey, however, as RoI was last in the field at the end of January. But contrary to virtually every single poll out in this campaign, RoI puts the Tories ahead in Calgary and Wildrose ahead in Edmonton.

Forum is a little more conventional, but also shows that seven point gap. They have Wildrose at 40%, down three points since Apr. 9, and the Tories at 33%, up two points. The NDP is up one to 12% and the Liberals are unchanged at 10%. Like other polls, they show the comfortable Wildrose and Tory leads in Calgary and Edmonton, respectively.

While it is difficult to figure out what is going on in the two main cities (though it is safe to say that Forum is probably closer to the mark), it does appear that the margin between the two parties is closing. Will it close fast enough for the Tories? The next few days will tell us - and as the headlines aren't exactly positive for Wildrose at the moment, things could move quickly.

Tories lead by 22 in ROI poll

Over the last few days, Return on Insight (ROI) has released a series of Alberta polls via the CBC, analyzing voting intentions, leader approval, and where Albertans stand on the issues. The poll shows the Progressive Conservatives to be in a dominant position.

ROI finds Alison Redford's Tories to have the support of 46% of Albertans, with 24% opting for Wildrose, 14% for the NDP, and 12% for the Liberals.

These numbers generally echo, or at least fall in between, what we've recently seen from Léger Marketing and Forum Research. They also agree on where the parties stand in each part of the province.

In Edmonton, the Tories have a solid lead with 49% support, while the NDP comes up second with 17%. The Liberals and Wildrose are tied with 16%.

In Calgary, the Tories have a solid lead as well but are being trailed more closely by Wildrose: 48% to 28%. This is also the case in the rest of the province, where the Progressive Conservatives hold a 43% to 29% edge over Danielle Smith's party. This closer race outside the cities and a competitive Wildrose in Calgary is what other polls have reported.

This poll has been added to the Alberta projection. It has given the Tories an extra 0.6 points and they now lead with 45.9% support, compared to 23% for Wildrose (down 0.2), 13.1% for the Liberals (down 0.3), and 12.4% for the New Democrats (up 0.2). Minor shifts, but thanks to gains of 1.8 points in Edmonton and 1.5 points in Calgary, the Progressive Conservatives are now projected to win 76 seats, with seven going to Wildrose, three to the NDP, and one to the Liberals.

In this ROI poll, the leaders all get net positive approval ratings. Alison Redford tops the list with 59% approval to 22% disapproval, with her best numbers coming in the two main cities and among women.

Danielle Smith has a 46% approval rating with 26% disapproving, her best results coming in Calgary and among men.

Brian Mason of the NDP scores a 39% to 29% split while Raj Sherman manages 37% approval to 33% disapproval. Both leaders have their best results in Edmonton.

Glenn Taylor of the Alberta Party has the highest "unsure" result, but still got 24% approval to 10% disapproval.

On the issues, Albertans identified healthcare (41%), the economy (31%), oil and gas (27%) and education (25%) as the most important ones facing the province. The Tories are well placed on these issues, however. They received top marks on healthcare (26%), education (33%), and the economy (43%) in terms of which party was chosen to be best able to handle these issues. Wildrose came second (19%) on the economy while the NDP came second (also with 19%) on healthcare and education.

These are not particularly strong indicators for Wildrose. They are not making big gains in voting intentions and on the important issues Albertans think other parties are stronger. If the campaign is about healthcare or education, the NDP might make gains. If it is about the economy, the PCs are best positioned. Where Danielle Smith finds her niche is difficult to see. But it appears that Albertans are generally comfortable with the Tories. Wildrose will need to turn the population against the governing party before they can work on bringing new voters into their tent.