Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Final 2013 British Columbia projection

The following are ThreeHundredEight.com's final projections and forecasts for the 2013 provincial election in British Columbia, scheduled for May 14, 2013. These numbers were last updated on May 14, 2013, and reflect the best estimates as of May 13, 2013, the last day of polls included in the model. You can click on all of the charts below to magnify them.

The numbers within the gray boxes reflect the forecasts for the May 14, 2013 election, while the numbers within the white box reflects the likely outcomes of an election held as of the last day of polling.

A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probability forecasts are calculated can be here.

The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability for the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of uncertainty intrinsic in polling, while the ranges in the forecast are a reflection of the plausible amount of change in support that can be expected between now and the election, as well as the error that polls have made in the past. The probabilities are based on the past performances of the projection model and of how polls have differed from election results in the past, with consideration being made for the amount of time between the polls being conducted and the election being held.

The following chart lists the polls currently included in the projection model, as well as the weight each poll carries.
The following is a list of the current projections for all 85 of British Columbia's ridings. These are the best estimates of likely outcomes if an election were held on the last day of polling. The high and low results are  the estimates of likely floors and ceilings, based on the vote projection ranges. The probabilities listed beside each riding is the likelihood that, if an election were held on the last day of polling, the winning party identified by the model would actually win. It does not assign any probability to a particular trailing party winning the riding - if a projection gives the leading party a 75% chance of winning, there is a 25% chance that any of the other parties could win.

These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding. It may be necessary to right-click and open the chart in a new window in order to be able to read it.
The following chart tracks the projection, projection ranges, and forecast ranges over time. The chart includes a legend on how to read it.
The next chart tracks the regional vote projections, without also tracking projected ranges or forecasts. It is best used a means of looking at voter trends as suggested by the polls in each region as the election approaches.
This chart tracks the probabilities assigned to one party winning the popular vote on May 14, 2013 and one party winning the election as of the projection date.
This chart shows the unadjusted poll averages, weighting only for date, sample size, and track record of polling firm. Unlike the site's projection, these averages do not penalize the Greens and Conservatives or estimate the support for independents and other parties.
This next chart tracks the polls that have been released since the beginning of April, with each dot representing the result of a poll that was in the field on that day.
This last chart is tracks a rolling three-poll average of approval ratings of the four leaders and scores on the question of who is the best choice to be Premier. The leaders are: Christy Clark (Liberals), Adrian Dix (NDP), John Cummins (Conservatives), and Jane Sterk (Greens.
ThreeHundredEight.com defines British Columbia's three regions as follows:

Vancouver Island (14): Alberni-Pacific Rim, Comox Valley, Cowichan Valley, Esquimalt-Royal Roads, Juan de Fuca, Nanaimo, Nanaimo-North Cowichan, North Island, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Parksville-Qualicum, Saanich North and the Island, Saanich South, Victoria-Beacon Hill, Victoria-Swan Lake

Metro Vancouver (40): Burnaby-Deer Lake, Burnaby-Edmonds, Burnaby-Lougheed, Burnaby North, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Coquitlam-Maillardville, Delta North, Delta South, Fort Langley-Aldergrove, Langley, Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, New Westminster, North Vancouver-Lonsdale, North Vancouver-Seymour, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Richmond Centre, Richmond East, Richmond-Steveston, Surrey-Cloverdale, Surrey-Fleetwood, Surrey-Green Timbers, Surrey-Newton, Surrey-Panorama, Surrey-Tynehead, Surrey-Whalley, Surrey-White Rock, Vancouver-Fairview, Vancouver-False Creek, Vancouver-Fraserview, Vancouver-Hastings, Vancouver-Kensington, Vancouver-Kingsway, Vancouver-Langara, Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, Vancouver-Point Grey, Vancouver-Quilchena, Vancouver-West End, West Vancouver-Capilano, West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

B.C. Interior and North (31): Abbotsford-Mission, Abbotsford South, Abbotsford West, Boundary-Similkameen, Cariboo-Chicotin, Cariboo North, Chilliwack, Chilliwack-Hope, Columbia River-Revelstoke, Fraser-Nicola, Kamloops-North Thompson, Kamloops-South Thompson, Kelowna-Lake Country, Kelowna-Mission, Kootenay East, Kootenay West, Maple Ridge-Mission, Nechako Lakes, Nelson-Creston, North Coast, Peace River South, Peace River North, Penticton, Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Prince George-Mackenzie, Prince George-Valemount, Shuswap, Skeena, Stikine, Vernon-Monashee, Westside-Kelowna