Monday, May 30, 2011

The new Tory constituency: Far less francophone, far more multicultural

Stephen Harper finally won his majority government, but in the process lost more than half of his party’s seats in Quebec. Gains in the rest of the country made up for these losses, however, and with the Conservatives winning a swathe of new seats in the Greater Toronto Area the ridings represented by Tory MPs has become far less francophone and much more diverse.

You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website. A condensed version of the article with infographic is also in today's print edition.

As I did with the NDP and the Liberals, here are a few extra tidbits on the new Conservative constituency:

Largest population: Brampton West (170,000 in 2006)
Smallest population: Labrador (26,000)
Oldest median age: Chilliwack - Fraser Canyon (50.6 years)
Youngest median age: Nunavut (23.1 years)
Highest median household income: Halton ($93,000)
Lowest median household income: Dauphin - Swan River - Marquette ($34,000)
Ridings in which French is the largest language group: 7
Ridings in which neither English nor French is the largest language group: 14
Ridings in which immigrants are the majority: 12
Riding with the largest aboriginal population: Desnethé - Missinippi - Churchill River (45,000)


  1. AverageCanuck30 May, 2011 11:00

    More horse race numbers from HD out!

    Unfortunately they make the same mistake as Abacus, doing an apples to oranges comparison between their polling and the election result instead of their polling and their last polling before the election.

    CPC at 38% in their polling.

    They claim that means they are down 1.6%.

    In actual fact they are up 2% from the 36% they were at in the last HD poll.

    The results are in! Harper seems to be enjoying a 2-3% honeymoon.

  2. "Harper seems to be enjoying a 2-3% honeymoon. "

    Now the BIG question is for how long. Seems to me it doesn't matter what party is in power within a couple of months or a bit longer the approval rate sinks noticeably ?

  3. AverageCanuck30 May, 2011 14:44

    Peter it looks like we are in a two party system now with the BQ, Greens, and Liberals feasting on scraps.

    I don't know about parties losing popularity. Danny Williams never went down.

    Harper has done so much stuff that annoys the heck out of you and yet he keeps getting re-elected !

    His base isn't going anywhere.

    Unless all the other parties merge completely he'll probably keep winning.

    Buckle up, we're in for another 10 years of this guy.

  4. We really don't have much data from previous majority governments to compare post-election poll numbers.

  5. AverageCanuck, voters tend to get tired of one party after a long enough term in power.
    - The longest continuous tenure in power of any one party in Canadian history is Liberals for 22 years (from the defeat of R.B. Bennett in 1935 to the defeat of Louis St. Laurent in 1957)
    - The second longest was the Conservatives for 18 years (from the defeat of Alexander Mackenzie in 1878 to the defeat of Charles Tupper in 1896).
    - The third longest was the Liberals for 16 years (from the defeat of Diefenbaker in 193 to the defeat of Trudeau in 1979).
    - The fourth longest was the Liberals for 15 years (from the defeat of Charles Tupper in 1896 to the defeat of Wilfrid Laurier in 1911).
    - The fifth longest was again the Liberals for 13 years (from the defeat of Kim Campbell in 1993 to the defeat of Paul Martin in 2006).

    The average continuous duration (not including the extremely brief government of Arthur Meighen in 1926), however, is 9.6 years. If Harper/the Conservatives were to have ten more years, that would tie them for fourth longest serving in history, which seems somewhat unlikely. And considering the fixed election date law, further terms should be coming in multiples of four years, so either four, eight or twelve. Twelve years would take the Conservatives to seventeen years in power, and third longest serving. Eight years might be reasonable, since that would take them to thirteen years and a tie for fifth in analogous circumstances to that thirteen year Liberal government. A defeat at the end of this term, however, would make the Conservative tenure in office just short of average for Canadian history. While obviously averages don't have any great predictive power, they suggest something of the tenure Canadians are prepared to put up with a single party in power.

  6. "Danny Williams never went down. "

    As usual you deliberately go out of your way to misunderstand or barrack me Average.

    No Danny did change, but not in the normal way so when you specify him you pick an anomaly

    It doesn't matter what party it is, all that has to happen is that it starts to govern, and support/ratings go down. Get used to it, it's the way things are.

  7. AverageCanuck30 May, 2011 23:31

    Peter the Liberals went down in '97 from their '93 total but then went back up in '00.

    Same with Charest in Quebec. He was reduced to a minority and came back with a majority.

    So even if the voters do punish Harper somewhat don't be surprised if he sticks around and then makes a big comeback.

  8. Average
    " Liberals went down in '97 from their '93 total but then went back up in '00.:"

    You just don't get it or more likely refuse to get it !!

    What happens three or four or five years later is irrelevant. My point was there is always a "honeymoon" period until a new Govt starts to govern, then a reduction in public approval for a period. What happens after that is NOT germane to the discussion. Too many other factors are at play by then.

    Give it a rest as your "average" is really showing !!

  9. AverageCanuck31 May, 2011 14:01

    Peter don't make insulting remarks towards people. You already posted a lewd word on here last week.

    Show some class people.

  10. "Peter don't make insulting remarks towards people. "

    Kindly point out where in today's exchanges I used any insulting remark. Apparently Eric didn't see any ??

  11. Eric,

    Now that we have a couple of polls taken post election by HD and by Abacus, will you eventually resume your averaging and seat projections like you had before the election campaign?

  12. Yes, but I will have to develop a new model based on the 2011 results before providing projections. Coverage of the polls will be maintained.

  13. Good news, Éric. Even uyour single poll analysis is valuable and informative.

    That said, there's also no rush. This government appears stable, and you have more pressing concerns on the provincial front, but I'm glad to hear that you'll continue ongoing federal coverage despite there being no threat of an imminent election.


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