Tuesday, May 31, 2011

PQ rides split to large majority

The last poll from CROP, conducted between May 11 and 16, shows that both the Parti Québécois and the Liberals have lost support since April. But despite being at 34%, the PQ is still in a position to win a large majority of the seats in the National Assembly.
Compared to CROP's last poll taken between April 13 and 20, in the midst of the federal campaign, the Parti Québécois has lost six points but still holds an 11-point lead over the Liberals, with 34% to 23%. That represents a three point loss for the PLQ.

The Action Démocratique du Québec is up three points to 16%, a gain we also saw in Léger's last missive, while Québec Solidaire is up one point to 12%.

This is the second poll showing that the NDP's gains in Quebec have not transferred over to QS.

The Greens are up six points to 11% in this poll, a likely fluke considering that they are now at 25% among non-francophones. Only 69 non-francophones were polled, so the margin of error on this result is rather large.

Both this poll and the recent Léger poll have shown both the PQ and Liberals looking weak. However, neither of these polls have shown that any of the second or third tier parties are taking advantage to any great extent.

Among francophones, who make up the bulk of the population, the PQ is leading with 41%, followed by the Liberals at 18% and the ADQ at 15%.

In and around Montreal, the PQ is ahead of the Liberals with 32% to 23%. Québec Solidaire is running third, with 14%, while in Quebec City the PQ is also ahead with 31%. The ADQ is second with 25% and the Liberals third with 22%.

With the results of this poll only, ThreeHundredEight projects 78 seats for the Parti Québécois, 27 for the Liberals, 15 for the ADQ, and five for Québec Solidaire.

In the past, I would have looked at five seats for QS with skepticism, but the federal campaign in Quebec has shown that elections results are not pre-ordained.

This would be a very large majority for the PQ. Though sovereignty is not a top issue in Quebec at the moment, the option still has the support of 43% of decided voters according to this poll. With the support of Québec Solidaire, also a sovereigntist party, it is quite possible that with this PQ electoral victory a referendum would be on the horizon.

But Quebecers are still unenthusiastic about the prospect of Pauline Marois being premier. She received only 20% support on who is best suited for the job, though that is increased to 38% when we remove the "unsures" and "none of the aboves". Jean Charest follows with 16% or 30% of decideds, while Gérard Deltell comes in third with 10% (19%).

CROP still lists Guy Rainville as the leader of the Greens, despite Claude Sabourin being made leader in November.

Quebec is certainly making the headlines lately, be it because of the NDP's position on the Clarity Act or the province's opposition to the Conservatives' planned reform of the Senate. But we may be as much as two years from the next election, so there is plenty of time for Charest to turn the tide or for Marois to either run away with or scuttle her lead


  1. Do you have de results riding per riding. I am wondering where those 5 Québec solidaire seats are...

  2. "Only 69 non-francophones were polled, so the margin of error on this result is rather large."

    Eric if that applies to the entire poll then I would say the poll is seriously flawed ??

  3. Anonymous,

    I have the QS seats as Mercier, Gouin, Outremont, Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, and Laurier-Dorion.


    No, it does not apply to the entire poll. There aren't a lot of non-francophones in Quebec, so sample sizes for this demographic are always small (think Atlantic Canada).

  4. Why do you have the PQ dark blue and the ADQ light blue? It should be the other way around.

  5. All Right Eric !!

    It's push come to shove !!

    Vancouver in 6 !!

  6. AverageCanuck02 June, 2011 13:54

    Eric you need to do a post and correct the media on the obvious error they are making when analyzing all these post election polls:


    CPC - 37
    NDP - 34
    LPC - 15

    They make the mistake of saying CPC support is down from 39.6%. But that's an apples (EC day result) to oranges (HD polling result) comparison.

    In actual fact they are up 1% from the last HD poll.

    We saw this problem after the 2008 election. Almost every poll showed them down from their '08 levels of support and on track to lose seats.

    Nobody bothered to ask if perhaps the polls were just underestimating CPC electoral strength as they did before the '08 election.

    Turns out they were. Badly.

    So I guess partisans will be free to choose their conflicting story lines. One set of numbers doing an apples to apples comparison and another set doing an apples to oranges comparison.

    Either Harper has been enjoying a post election honeymoon (+1,+2,+3%) or he's down from his EC day support.

  7. AC,

    The fact that you apply a unilateral +3% to pollsters as their somehow-pinpointed-accuracy shows how little you yourself understand polls.

    It doesn't work that way. You don't know if the same methods used then were the same ones used now. You don't take into account the margin of error on ALL polls, nor do you know whether or not one poll on one day may be more accurate than another poll on another day, nevermind the fact that you can't simply apply one day's poll's accuracy to ALL polls that come after it without injecting some serious bias into those polls that simply ends up muddying everything.

    One poll is simply a snapshot of time, and only of that time. You take each poll as it stands, not take each poll as how it stood over a month ago.

  8. Besides in the 2004 and 2006 elections the final polls all OVER-estimated Conservative support and they got less on election day. No sooner do people think they have it all figured out with polls vs. election results - then the next election comes around and all the old theories get tossed out the window!

  9. Yes Volkov your remarks re AC are correct.

    Plus he can't either understand or accept that what a party does nationally can be any different provincially although we all know in fact provincial politics and issues rarely impact the national scene.

    So how a party does provincially is all about how it addresses the local, provincial issues and not how it apes the national party.

    Here in Ont Hudak just came out with a fiscal plan that even right wing papers screamed "Harris" about. But AC would think that was great !!

  10. AverageCanuck03 June, 2011 17:17

    Volkov I don't apply any sort of +3%.

    The most simple and effective method is to look at how far off each individual pollster was on EC day and simply apply the difference to each party.

    Nobody has changed their method. Haven't heard anything about that at all from the pollsters who are back out in the field already.

    Those who we still haven't heard from might be re-working their system. If there's a good 3 month period of silence we'll know they've changed how they poll.

    Regardless. We must compare POLLS TO POLLS.

    Comparing a poll to an election day result is like comparing an EKOS poll to an HD poll and saying Harper has gone up or down by X amount.

    Do you not agree with this ? Its pretty basic really.

    Election day is like its own individual, massive poll with its own sample and its own method.

    Just like you wouldn't compare changes from an EKOS poll to an HD poll you shouldn't compare changes from EC day to EKOS or HD.

    Right ?


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