Friday, January 4, 2013

Canadians expect Trudeau to win

Apparently, Canadians pay attention to the news and expect Justin Trudeau to win the federal Liberal leadership race in April. A new Ipsos-Reid poll suggests that more than two-thirds of Canadians think Trudeau will come out victorious, meaning that April's vote will either be a non-event or a huge upset. But the poll also hints at some doubts in Trudeau's ability to defeat the Conservatives.
The online poll conducted in mid-December found that 69% of Canadians expect Justin Trudeau to win the leadership race, giving him a 50-point edge over Marc Garneau. Just under one-in-five think he will prevail.

The other candidates on Ipsos-Reid's list - Martha Hall Findlay, Joyce Murray, and Deborah Coyne - hardly registered. Hall Findlay and Murray each had 5%, while Coyne had 2%.

From what I can tell, Ipsos-Reid did not give people the option of responding with "I don't know". One imagines that would have taken in a large proportion of respondents. But these numbers generally line-up with what we have seen in terms of who Canadians want to win the leadership race, which might have been a more interesting question to ask in this survey.

Over 70% of Canadians in every region except Alberta and Ontario think Trudeau will win, while Marc Garneau managed his best results in Alberta, where 27% think he will win. Is Garneau the Liberal candidate of the right? A recent poll by Forum Research of Ontarians found that provincial PC voters were split down the middle between Trudeau and Garneau, while Trudeau dominated among Liberal and NDP supporters. That Garneau also did best in Alberta in this poll seems to suggest that he is seen as standing to the right of Trudeau.

And while Canadians think Trudeau will win, they are slightly more bullish on Garneau's potential to defeat Stephen Harper. The margin is still wide between Trudeau and Garneau at 38 points, but it suggests that some people doubt that the Liberals will make the right choice.
62% of Canadians think Justin Trudeau has the best chance of defeating the Conservatives, while 24% think Garneau does.

That is not a huge difference from how Canadians think the race will play out -  a drop of seven points for Trudeau and an increase of five points for Garneau - but it is a result. Again, Garneau does best in Alberta, where 32% think he has the better chance of defeating Harper.

Still, a large majority of Canadians think Trudeau will win the race and is the best person to take on the Conservatives. But these numbers suggest he has a little work to do in convincing Canadians that he has what it takes to win a general election.

They already don't doubt that his party could win, though. Fully 56% of respondents agree that the Liberals will return to power under the next leader at some point. Only in Alberta and the Prairies do a majority doubt that the next Liberal leader will become Prime Minister one day. That is not a bad number, as it suggests that a large number of Canadians think the third-place Liberals will win an election within the next two or three cycles. But it probably would have been well over 75% in 2006 before the Liberals chose Stéphane Dion.

Canadians are somewhat less sure that the opposition parties will need to co-operate in order to oust the Conservatives. The country was split down the middle on whether the Liberals, NDP, and Greens should work together to avoid splitting the "anti-conservative vote": 51% for to 49% against. Passions don't run too high on this question, however. Only 14% strongly agreed that they should co-operate, while 17% strongly disagreed. 

Hopefully, Ipsos-Reid will weigh-in on these questions again as the leadership vote approaches. If Trudeau does very well over the next few months, his numbers are surely to rise. But will the numbers of respondents who think that the Liberals can return to power and do it on their own increase as well? And if he falters, will Canadians still think that Garneau or another candidate will be able to defeat the Conservatives without co-operating with the NDP?

36 comments:

  1. Angus Reid's new poll found that a Trudeau-led Liberal Party would result in: LPC 42% CPC 26% NDP 19%. Wild! Also, the poll found some fairly out-of-step regional numbers for current voting intentions, particularly MB/SK and the Atlantic, but also BC and ON. Probably worth writing a piece about.

    Dom

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    1. And yet that same poll puts the Liberals at 19% without the hypothetical. Given that most Canadians expect Truedau to win, how is it that they put the Liberals in a distant third place, but when asked to assume Trudeau as leader they have the Liberals ahead?

      Those results make no sense.

      I'm inclined to ignore these hypothetical questions and wait to seehow the Liberals (with Trudeau as leader) are viewed once he's actually leader, having suffered all of the slings and arrows that achieving the leadership and holding the leadership will bring.

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    2. Charles Harrison04 January, 2013 14:27

      Sure does. Here's the PDF: http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2013.01.04_Politics_CAN.pdf

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  2. Honestly based on name alone I think he can blow the Conservatives out of the water.

    Be interesting to see polls in the next few weeks !!

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    1. Based on name alone, any "Trudeau" would be a longshot to even threaten the Conservatives anywhere west of Ontario.

      Also, I find it odd that the poll treats the Liberals as only having to go up against the Conservatives -- whereas in reality the Liberals face an uphill climb against the NDP as well.

      Justin Trudeau strikes me as the political equivalent of Justin Bieber: thousands of screaming fans, a pretty face, and no discussion allowed of his actual level of talent.

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    2. Judging Trudeau on his last name and good looks is equivalent to judging a book by its cover. When the public opens the book to see him in action, will the cover properly reflect the content of the book? The stake is high for Trudeau - whether he makes or breaks it is yet to be seen.
      You know what they say, never judge a book by their cover.

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    3. See Undermedia's earlier post before you consume any more CPC bafflegab.

      Those numbers bluntly say a Liberal MAJORITY.

      Not a moment to soon either !!

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    4. Every new leader generally gets their party a bounce in the polls before things level off again.

      Trudeau's bounce is coming early because Canadians see the overwhelming coverage (and groupthink) in the press and already view his leadership victory as a foregone conclusion.

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    5. Peter, as a regular follower of this site I would've thought you would know better by now than to get your hopes up to such an extent over wildly fluctuating poll results based on hypothetical scenarios. Not saying it couldn't happen, but you're potentially setting yourself up for major disappointment by being so confident.

      I'll keep raising the previous example of François Legault and the CAQ in Québec. For months while he was mulling the idea of founding the party, hypothetical polls suggested he would come out on top in an election. Then when he did found the party, the first few polls showed him winning by a landslide. But just three months later, the CAQ had already slipped down to 3rd place, where they've pretty much remained to this day.

      The fact is the public simply hasn't seen Trudeau in real action yet, and until they do his fortunes as Liberal leader are truly anyone's guess.

      Dom

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    6. Polls are showing more and more erratic numbers for the Liberals, I rather stick with 308 to explain what's going on and what can account for it.
      308 is showing the bump the liberals got for Trudeau entering the race starting to wane.
      Perhaps once Trudeau becomes leader the party will get another bounce and wane away the same way?

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    7. Under the point is extremely simple. We are looking at one recent poll.

      Either you accept it's findings or you don't but the waffling and outright bafflegab on here are really extreme at times and particularly when the numbers go against the CPC !!

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    8. It is not "waffling" or "bafflegab" to take polling results with a proverbial grain of salt.

      This is one result, one data point, and while other polls have shown similar results, it is pure wishful thinking at best -- and outright arrogance at worst -- to assert that a majority is inevitable when an actual election is over two full years away.

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  3. Eric, you neglect to mention that the Angus Reid numbers are wildly different when no potential Liberal leader is named:

    Con 35
    NDP 33
    Lib 19

    It is astounding Liberal support more than doubles with Trudeau at the helm. On the other hand, if he fails to meet his stratospheric expectations, the poll indicates to me that the Liberal vote is potentially very soft and can easily drift away.

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    1. This post is about a poll by Ipsos-Reid, not Angus-Reid.

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  4. Harper is steadily losing ground and voters are looking for an alternative. Trudeau is young and represents change. Harper is now stale and ridden with scandal.

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    1. And that's before you factor in First Nations and Idle No More !

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    2. Idle no more will have almost no impact. It is a sad reality but, Aboriginal participation in elections are dismally low. Even in ridings where their population could sway a race turnout remains negligible.

      In my experience many Canadians are hostile toward Aboriginal rights and even the benefits they may receive from the Indian Act or treaty. Many of course will sympathise but, an equal number have tuned out to the issue.

      Someone in the Know

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    3. Stop looking at Election Results and start looking at Political Results.

      Because, as of right now, that's where it is winning and this recent expansion into the USA says a lot more is to come !!

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    4. What political result? If you think Mr. Harper is about to meet chief Spence you are sadly mistaken. Nor are the Tories about to amend the Budget Implementation Bill part II to satisfy Aboriginal concerns! With 3% of the population Aboriginal rights/ treatment is unlikely to be taken up as a seminal issue by Canadians.

      SITK

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    5. Harper will meet Spence and other FN Chiefs on Friday of this week.

      Stop watching Faux News and go to real world stuff like CTV or CBC or even Global.

      Harper is starting to "wear this situation" and has not been able, nor will he be, to escape the repercussions.

      This could well be the beginning of the end ?? Remember Idle No More may have started as a First Nations protest group but it has morphed into something much bigger !!

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    6. No Peter. Harper will meet other chiefs and Spence will tag along as a face saving measure-for her~!

      Idle NO More will be just as productive as Occupy Wall Street-people pay attention for a while then it becomes an annoyance.

      It may be the beginning of the end for progressiveism in Canada. The new AR poll has the Tories winning a majority with 35% of the vote!

      SITK

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    7. Keep on drinking the CPC tea. It will not help you in the oncoming debacle.

      308 has been predicting a CPC minority at best for some time. Get used to it. Harper may just be a ONE term PM !!

      as to Idle No More it will continue, now that it is International brace yourself, seems the regular public goes along to !!

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    8. Well Harper is currently serving his third term as PM but, keep dreaming Peter and lay off the leftwing Koolaid-you never know what's in there!

      Occupy Wall Street had a far greater international following than Idle No More, where is Occupy Wall Street now? Likely in their parent's basements.

      308 has not predicted a minority Liberal and or NDP government. They seem confined to the opposition benches.

      SITK

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  5. For those who care to look:

    "As Attawapiskat Chief Theresa Spence enters her fourth week on a hunger strike outside the Canadian capital building, thousands of protesters in Los Angeles, London, Minneapolis and New York City, voice their support."

    This US site has something every day on our current situation. Definitely worth the visit:

    http://www.commondreams.org/

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    1. But meanwhile, I suspect the following will not be helpful to Chief Spence's cause:

      "Attawapiskat audit finds 'no evidence of due diligence'.
      Deloitte finds average of 81% of files lack supporting documents from Ontario reserve."

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/01/07/pol-attawapiskat-audit-monday.html

      The Idle No More movement will likely persevere, but I think Spence's reputation is just about ruined now. She's going to have to take a back seat lest she start doing the movement more harm than good.

      Dom

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    2. i think Spence actually does need to "step back" and let Idle No More do its thing.

      Funny that after an imposed administrator the audit is so bad though ??

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    3. The audit is from the time period before the administrator.

      SITK

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    4. "The audit is from the time period before the administrator. "

      Isn't it fascinating that the report is delayed at least six months and then released at a time of major problems with the First Nations ???

      Can we say Dirty Politics???

      I think we can !!

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    5. The way audits work Peter is they are done by fiscal year. The time period with the administrator will be audited sometime after March 31, 2013. Complex audits can take months so a six month delay or longer is not that unusual. Only a slanderer would characterise this as "Dirty Politics" (sic) without proof.

      SITK

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    6. Then SITK you might try to explain this from the CBC's report??

      "The Attawapiskat First Nation was placed under co-management more than a decade ago – a measure taken by the federal government to attempt to improve financial administration."

      Co-management to me means co-responsibility !!

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    7. Co-management does not mean co-responsibility it depends on the terms of any agreement. You should ask Chretien and Bob Nault why they placed this reserve under co-management? Co-management agreements happen all the time in Alberta with oil and gas with Aboriginal groups differing layers of responsibility are outlined in the agreements.

      I would surmise this reserve has a number of on-going problems related to capacity as well as more nefarious outcomes. The bottom line is it is up to the people of that community to make sure their leaders are held accountable. The Government can only do so much. If IdleNoMore is truly concerned about Indigenous Sovereignty they will put their own house in order to achieve their goal(s).

      In any case Peter, I will not post again under this topic.

      SITK

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  6. This isn't really the appropriate venue for discussing First Nations-related issues, particularly as this post has nothing to do with the topic.

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    1. Have to agree Eric. Thanks for your patience

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  7. What all the polls show is that Harper is going to be finished in 2015. His personal numbers continue to dive ans without a majority win he is toast. No poll shows Harper even coming close to a majority no matter who leads the Liberals.

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    1. The Angus Reid poll of Jan. 7th gave a projection of 180 seats and a majority government to the Conservatives.

      Harper and the Tories should not be underestimated.

      S.F. Tolmie

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  8. What would really change if the liberals came back to power?

    To me they say and do the same things as the conservatives, just less in your face about it.

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