Friday, June 12, 2015

ThreeHundredEight.com on hiatus until June 29

In order to take some time off for a much-needed vacation and to re-charge the batteries for the final sprint towards Election Day in October, I will not be posting any new articles or projection updates to ThreeHundredEight.com or writing for or appearing on the CBC for the next two weeks.

I will be very infrequently checking Twitter and moderating comments here, but I will otherwise be incommunicado. 

But it isn't all bad news! In fact, shortly after I get back to work I will have something very, very cool to show all of you. I'm really excited about it, and I think you will all love it.

In the meantime, there is plenty right here on 308 to keep you busy. Here are a few of my favourite pieces I've written over the last few months that you might have missed:

Introducing the 2015 federal election projection model. Goes over how the model did in 2011 and what changes have been made since then. Probably a good thing to read as we head into the final stretch.

- The Federal Election of 2003 that never was. Paul Martin vs. Stephen Harper vs. Peter MacKay. Go! (Also Jack Layton and, of course, Gilles Duceppe)

- Without Wildrose or a divided right, the Alberta NDP would have still won. A somewhat controversial post. Really, it is about how the NDP's win was not the product of a divided right, and not an alternate history in which I neglected to consider the possibility of Zombie Lougheed winning it all.

- Are conservative parties under-estimated in the polls? Spoiler alert: they are, but not as much as you might think.

The quest for official party status. Suddenly more relevant with the return of Duceppe. Looks at the Greens, too.

- Redemption for the pollsters, revolution for Albertans. My relieved look-back at Alberta's election results.




You can also take a look at the archive of my weekly columns for the CBC here, and my monthly columns for The Hill Times here (paywalled, but nothing's free in this world, except this site).

I'm sure I'll have a lot to catch-up on when I get back to work, so if any of you see a poll you think I should know about please do tweet me or email me. It will help!

See you in a few weeks! 

33 comments:

  1. Can you update the provincial polling averages graphs first? CRA says the NL NDP have doubled to be on par with the PCs (22% to 27%) with the Liberals at 50%

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  2. Nope. I refuse. You must update more! Who else will give us our fill of Canadian politics... CBC... or worse.. PUNDITSGUIDE?!

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  3. This time off is actually time Eric needs to prepare for replacing Evan Solomon on Power and Politics, you heard it here first.

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    1. Not in the best taste... However I wouldn't argue with that choice. Not as a slight to Eric, but I think P&P need a female host and Rossie is doing a great job.

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    2. Rosie would be a great choice.

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    3. Completely agree Eric and it is interesting that Rosie ran the show all week until yesterday and will now do the House this morning, Saturday. Just the same sort of schedule Evan ran !!

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    4. I don't know if you can read too much into that, Rosie has always been the replacement host of P&P when Evan was away.

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    5. I do agree that she's probably the choice of the moment and I'm fairly sure she will be the final choice. Time will tell.

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    6. I think Rosie's always done a great job sitting in - she's well informed, respectful but firm, and thinks fast on her feet. Still it's a shame what happened to Evan. Sure it was a stupid thing to put himself in that position, but management had been informed, and at least tacitly approved of the situation. Yet they cut him loose as soon as the heat started. Interesting that they chose to stand behind Rex Murphy, Amanda Lang and Peter Mansbridge. One can't help but wonder how much their personal politics had to do with it, given the big brother attitude of the feds towards the CBC.

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    7. Solomon did breach journalistic ethics. CBC hasn't been vigilant on this issue for some time, and he absolutely had to go. You can't have a journalist using their position for personal gain - it leads to (at the least) an appearance of bias, and more likely, the reality of bias. I agree that the ethics violations of Murphy, Lang, and Mansbridge are much worse, and they should all lose their jobs - which are positions of trust. I don't see Solomon's politics as any different from theirs, he's just the most junior of the lot and therefore easiest to jettison - he also thereby functions as a fall guy for the others.

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    8. I've seen Evan Solomon at fundraisers for progressive and environmental causes - strictly non-partisan, of course - but I'm sure he's perceived by Harper's spies as "one of them".

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    9. According to an announcement by Mansbridge this week Rosie will have P&P from next Monday till after the election !!

      Works for me for sure

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  4. On the day that that EKOS poll comes out? How could you? How will I know what I think about it?

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  5. Have a great time Eric. Look forward to your return

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  6. For those who can't face two weeks without discussion this is available 24/7 and membership is free. Help yourself

    http://forums.delphiforums.com/relpol/start

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  7. 17 Days without a fix !

    No matter, your vacation is well deserved.

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  8. Well deserved, even if it makes me incredibly sad. Enjoy!

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  9. Enjoy Eric, and thanks for all your terrific research and synthesis.

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  10. Eric. Picked up an interesting piece of info yesterday Re Stanley Cup.
    Yes Chicago is only one win away from the cup. But a key piece of info isn't well know. Now if Chicago wins this season it will be the third cup in six years. Excellent record.

    But should they win tonight it will be the first Cup Won At Home since sometime in the 1930's !!

    Fingers crossed for sure !!

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    1. Peter, off the top of my head, Montreal won at home in 1993. I am quite certain there are other examples...

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    2. Or did you mean, first win for Chicago at home since the 1930s... Let's see... they won at home in 2010. C'mon... that took about three seconds to check.

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    3. June 16, NY Times

      "An Original Six franchise, the Blackhawks won the Cup at home for the first time since 1938, during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s second term as president. The Blackhawks had claimed their last two Cups, in 2010 and 2013, in Game 6s as well, in Philadelphia and Boston."

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    4. 2010 was won at Wachovia Center, which is in Philly. I've heard the same info about the first time winning at home for Chicago since like forever.

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    5. Actually, they last won at home in 1938. They won on the road in 2010. But as CBC reported this morning, Calder refused to send the Cup to Chicago in 1938 because he was so sure the Leafs would win. Some things never change...

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    6. Actually, in 2010 Chicago beat Philly in Philadelphia in game 6 to win the cup.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Stanley_Cup_Finals#Game_six

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  11. My comment was based on something I and others heard from the CBC Sports Dept. Winning at home is one thing winning the Cup at home something else !!

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  12. Well there you go Eric !!

    Chicago 2-0 !!

    And apparently their last Stanley Cup final win in their home arena was 1938.

    Great game !!

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  13. That Angus Reid poll certainly adds more fuel to the fire that is burning Justin Trudeau in effigy.

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  14. So this Liberal proposal to allow advocacy work by charities disturbs me greatly.

    The Canadian political landscape benefits tremendously from the financial restrictions brought in by Jean Chrétien, and allowing charities to engage in advocacy work effectively undoes that. This would open up a new avenue for corporate money to advertise at us on issues of public policy, something they're not currently permitted to do.

    Yes, left-wing and environmental charities would like to do that, but so would right-wing think-tanks.

    The restriction on advocacy by charities is necessary to maintain the effectiveness of our political finance restrictions. Justin Trudeau's plan would basically open the door to US-style mass advertising funded by corporate dollars.

    One of my biggest objections to previous Liberal governments (and PC governments - Mulroney was no better) was the close ties they had with big business. The campaign finance restrictions have helped, somewhat, to lessen the importance of those ties. This new Liberal proposal will put us right back where we were before, with the governments beholden to special interests.

    Honestly, if the other parties were proposing this and Justin Trudeau were the only one standing up and objecting, I would vote for him. This issue is huge for me.

    Our campaign finance restrictions are vital. We cannot weaken them.

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  15. New poll by Angus Reid puts the New Democrats at 36%, the Tories at 33% and the Languishing Liberals at only 23%

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/federal-vote-june-20151.pdf

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  16. NDP are up 6 points and you decide to go on vacation before updating your polls....Clearly this guys a Harper lover.

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    1. You caught me! I knew two months ago this would happen when I booked my plane tickets. I'm just that good.

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  17. Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s approval rating is sinking fast, according to new polling data from EKOS.
    Harper’s approval rating is dead last among federal leaders in the new EKOS survey — 62 per cent of those surveyed do not approve of the job he’s been doing, almost double the percentage reporting they approve of him (32 per cent). Compare that with Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, who – even though her approval rating has dropped by six points in recent weeks – is still well ahead of Harper, at 45 per cent.

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