Let's take a look at the on-going campaign with a wider focus. Below are the un-adjusted averages of the polls conducted so far in the campaign, by week. I'll update Week 4 numbers as more come in.
Week 1: NDP 34.7% CPC 29.6% LPC 26.8% BQ 4.6% GPC 4.0%
Week 2: NDP 31.8% CPC 29.8% LPC 27.5% GPC 5.4% BQ 4.6%
Week 3: NDP 32.7% CPC 29.4% LPC 28.0% GPC 5.1% BQ 3.9%
Week 4: NDP 33.9% CPC 28.4% LPC 27.9% GPC 5.0% BQ 3.8%
Any trends yet? The NDP seems to be going back and forth, while the Liberals are better off now than they were at the start of the campaign. The Conservatives could be slipping, while the Bloc seems to be.
Saturday, September 5, 2015
- A few polls this morning. One from Forum (still looking strange, but less strange than the last one) and the other from Léger. I've updated the Poll Tracker with these new numbers, and my analysis of the EKOS poll's effects on the Poll Tracker that was posted on the CBC last night will be updated shortly with this new information. I'll also try to have the riding projections updated later today.
- I was on The House this morning, talking about Battleground Montreal.
- Hier, sur Phare Ouest au Colombie-Britannique (après la musique!).
Friday, September 4, 2015
- EKOS is out, and shows the NDP down. The Poll Tracker has been updated with it. An analysis will follow shortly on the CBC.
- Another quiet day! But we wait with bated breath for the poll from EKOS that is supposed to come out today. In the meantime, I've updated the By-Election Barometer with the results of last night's vote in Calgary-Foothills and Simcoe North, as well as the new forecasts for the ridings of René-Lévesque and Whitby-Oshawa.
Thursday, September 3, 2015
- I've profiled Edmonton Centre as today's riding to watch. Will it be a three-way race? An NDP victory to mirror the provincial win in May? Or will the Conservatives benefit from a split of the vote?
- Quiet day on the polling front, though there are some interesting numbers from Abacus Data here at Maclean's. Trudeau leads on fun, Harper on running a country and a business. But Harper's lead on those issues was not as large over Mulcair as he would like it to be, and Mulcair was up on things like giving career advice or negotiating a contract.
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
- The latest episode of the Pollcast is out. This week, I'm joined by Bill Curry of The Globe and Mail and Josh Wingrove of Bloomberg - two journalists who know their stuff on the economy. So we talked about the economy and its impact on this campaign.
- I spoke with Prince George CBC radio about the importance of B.C. in the election.
- For the first time in a long time, British Columbia could be the decisive province in this election. I broke down the numbers in my column for the CBC today.
- Mainstreet has a poll concentrating on the island of Montreal today. Nothing too surprising. Close race between the NDP and Liberals overall, but NDP way ahead among francophones and the Liberals way ahead among anglophones.
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
- The Poll Tracker was updated earlier today, and the riding projections are now updated to match.
- Provincial politics alert: the Angus Reid Institute is out with its quarterly assessment of the approval ratings of Canada's premiers. Nothing really striking. Brad Wall and Rachel Notley are the only ones with a net positive rating. Kathleen Wynne, who has been the premier the most present in the federal campaign so far, is a net -29.
- The Polls Panel debuted on Power and Politics last night. Rosemary Barton moderated a panel that included me, Dimitri Pantazapoulos of Maple Leaf Strategies, and David Coletto of Abacus Data. It will be a regular weekly segment. Check it out here.
- Nanos is out with its latest four-week sample (his last one before going to a nightly tracking poll?). Must have been a lot of movement in either the latest week or the week that was dropped off the poll to move the Conservatives from first to third.
- In case you missed it yesterday, check out the riding profile I did for Kenora yesterday.
Monday, August 31, 2015
- Throughout the campaign, I'll be taking a close look at some of the ridings projected to go down to the wire. Today's profile is of the northwestern Ontario riding of Kenora.
- Here's my analysis of the latest numbers. I took a deeper look at some of the interesting findings in Innovative's new poll.
- The By-Election Barometer has been updated, with the additions of Fabre and Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne in Quebec. Both are forecast to be Strong PLQ holds.
- The Poll Tracker has been updated, along with the riding projections.
- Two polls out over the last few days, a massive report from the Innovative Research Group published over the weekend and a brand new poll from Abacus Data this morning. Both are showing the same close race.
- This weekend on The House, we talked about the economy and the polls.