Live blogging the NDP Leadership Convention

Welcome to ThreeHundredEight.com's live-blog of the NDP Leadership Convention. During the course of the day, I'll be updating the site with ballot-by-ballot results, changes to the endorsement rankings as candidates drop off, and estimates of where the votes are going from one ballot to the next.

You can refresh the site (updates will be made to this post) or you can follow me on Twitter, where I will be tweeting when new updates are posted.

With seven candidates and five with a real chance of winning, this could be a long day as candidates drop off one-by-one. It should also be a very interesting day.

21:52 - Thomas Mulcair wins with 57.2% of the vote (final update)

After the fourth and final ballot, and as expected, Thomas Mulcair has emerged as the winner of the NDP leadership convention, taking 57.2% of the vote. Final turnout, not aided by trouble with the voting that may have been the result of denial-of-service attacks, was around 45% of the 131,000 members eligible, after hitting a high of just under 50% on the first ballot.

Brian Topp finished with a respectable 42.8% of the vote, performing pretty well on the final ballot. Topp doubled his share from the first round, while Mulcair increased his by a little less than that. But it was a steady increase for Mulcair, from 30.3% to 38.3% to 43.8% and finally to 57.2%. What happened on that final ballot?

Though there was undoubtedly some cross-pollination between the Mulcair and Topp camps, Thomas Mulcair won by taking 53.7% of the new votes cast in the final round. His total increased by 6,393 votes. Topp took the remaining 46.3%, a surprisingly close division of Nathan Cullen's supporters, increasing his total by 5,507 votes. It seems that Cullen's positioning towards co-operation with the Liberals (which plays to Mulcair's place on the spectrum) and his geography as a British Columbian (which played to Topp's strength) divided the vote between the two candidates. It made the ending a lot closer than it might have otherwise been.

And that ends what has been an unexpectedly long day! In the end, the delays and seeming inevitability of Mulcair's victory starting after the second ballot took a bit of the buzz out of the convention. But when all the votes were counted, Mulcair received a very respectable share of the vote on the final ballot, more than Jack Layton managed in 2003 (though against many more candidates) and only a few ticks below Ed Broadbent's share in 1975.

What does this mean going forward? In the short term, the polls indicate that the New Democrats will not be hurt whatsoever outside of Quebec with Mulcair at the helm, and in Quebec the party should be expected to move back into first place ahead of the Bloc Québécois. After that? Who knows, 2015 is a long way away.

Thanks to everyone who checked in today! 

20:10 - Caucus falls behind Mulcair

Seeing the writing on the wall, the NDP caucus has overwhelmingly now fallen in line behind Thomas Mulcair. Since the third ballot, he picked up the support of Brian Masse, Megan Leslie, Denise Savoie, Dennis Bevington, Elaine Michaud, Bruce Hyer, and Fin Donnelly. Alexa McDonough, who originally endorsed Peggy Nash before aligning with Nathan Cullen, has also gone over to the Mulcair camp. Something like four out of every five aligned MPs have now endorsed Mulcair. The remainder are either former candidates or have remained neutral.

The result is that Mulcair's share of the endorsement points has now ballooned to 65.1% of the total. Will Mulcair actually get that much? I'd say that is unlikely. Something more along the lines of 55% to 60% is most probable. But it does give an indication of how the caucus, in addition to other party luminaries, has gone over to Thomas Mulcair.

19:15 - Lack of enthusiasm for final options?

Thomas Mulcair faces off against Brian Topp in the final round, but neither appears to be entering the final ballot with a great deal of enthusiastic support. Mulcair's growth has been steady and significant, but rather slow for someone who has been perceived as the frontrunner for quite some time.

Topp, despite receiving enthusiastic support from the party establishment, has been unable to really put together a large block of support from the membership. His growth was anemic on the second ballot and not nearly large enough on the third to give him any chance of winning.

Cullen landed some big names between ballots, but he still managed to out-perform the expectations of the endorsement system, registering almost 25% support. Topp is finally fulfilling some of his potential, while for the first time Mulcair scored beneath his share of the endorsement points. But I can't help but feel that had it been Cullen on the final ballot, a wave of enthusiasm could have swept his way. His campaign had the most momentum going into today, and it was maintained throughout the voting. It just wasn't enough in the end.

And in the end, despite all of the talk about grassroots campaigning and the like, the two best options from the perspective of the party establishment are going to end up on the final ballot. In that sense, I think the endorsement rankings have acted as a good baseline for comparison.

Mulcair is already announcing endorsements from MPs, including at least one that had remained neutral throughout the campaign, so it looks like the system will end up picking the right winner. But Brian Topp's failure to attract new supporters today is a telling sign of why he isn't closer to Thomas Mulcair going into the final ballot. That is not to say that between-ballot endorsements would have swung the balance towards Topp, but rather the lack of any interest to give him that support indicated a lack of faith in his ability to pull this one off.

18:53 - Mulcair insurmountable?

Though Mulcair did not take enough of Nash's votes to put this away on the third ballot, Topp did not take enough of it to put the outcome in doubt, either.

Thomas Mulcair captured 43.8% of the vote on the third ballot, picking up 3,586 votes in the process. He came up 3,880 votes short of winning a majority.

Brian Topp took 31.6% of the vote, making the largest leap in support and picking up 4,198 votes. He is 11,546 short of a majority, showing just how much more he needs to gain in order to win.

Put more simply, Brian Topp needs to take 75% of Nathan Cullen's votes in order to win. Such a huge swing is simply not going to happen.

Nathan Cullen ended up with 24.6% of the vote, a very good score considering where his campaign began. He captured 2,977 new votes on this last ballot.

Mulcair's ballot by ballot growth has been solid, as he has managed to pick up between 1/3rd and 2/5ths of votes on the table each time. It hasn't been enough to really put this away definitively, and with the votes not going any which way in any large degree so far, we can probably expect Cullen's supporters to split more evenly than what Topp would need to win.

But if Mulcair takes about 60% of Cullen's supporters, which seems plausible, he will end up with about 59% support overall, a good score on a final ballot. But even if it splits 50/50, Mulcair is still likely to walk away with 56% - a clear mandate going forward.

18:21 - Topp takes largest share of Nash votes, but not enough

The third ballot results are finally in, and Brian Topp has taken the largest share of Peggy Nash's support. But he did not take enough to have a shot at over-taking Thomas Mulcair on the fourth ballot, who seems sure to win.

Brian Topp took about 39% of the new votes cast in this third ballot, far greater than the second choice support he received on the second ballot. But it was not nearly the 60% or more that he needed to have any hope of over-taking Mulcair, who is likely to get the bulk of Nathan Cullen's voters.

Mulcair took 33.3% of the new votes, enough to ensure that he will be able to win on the fourth ballot. Nash was widely seen as the labour candidate, and to receive one-third support from that wing of the party is a pretty good sign that Thomas Mulcair is not the candidate of only one part of the NDP spectrum.

Nathan Cullen still did very well, taking over a quarter of Nash's votes. But it wasn't enough, though it was very unlikely that Cullen could survive to the final ballot. 

Mulcair widens edge in final week

With the NDP leadership campaign coming to a close on the weekend, endorsements have been coming fast and furious over the last seven days. While all six major candidates have received at least one endorsement this week, Thomas Mulcair has taken the lion's share and continues to lead the field.

His most important endorsement of the week came from Jack Harris, MP for St. John's East and leader of the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador from 1992 to 2006. Harris was joined by Christopher Mitchelmore, an NDP MHA from the province, and CUPE Newfoundland and Labrador, a 6,000-strong union that had originally endorsed Robert Chisholm.

Mulcair also received a good chunk of support from Ontario, with the endorsements of Ontario MPPs France Gélinas, Michael Prue, and Teresa Armstrong. It's worth noting that Prue had run for the Ontario NDP leadership in 2009. Two former MPs from the province, Steven Langdon and John Paul Harney, also endorsed Mulcair for the leadership.

Ashton, Cullen, Dewar, Mulcair

Out west, Buckley Belanger (Saskatchewan MLA) and Piers McDonald, NDP Premier of Yukon from 1996 to 2000, threw their support behind Mulcair.

Nathan Cullen landed the next most important endorsement after Jack Harris, that of Thunder Bay-Superior North MP Bruce Hyer, who is currently in his second term.

Niki Ashton announced her first major endorsement in some time, receiving the support of Ontario MPP Sarah Campbell. She represents the riding of Kenora-Rainy River, which actually borders Ashton's Churchill riding in Manitoba.

Paul Dewar also announced a provincial endorsement, having gotten the support of Nova Scotia MLA Howard Epstein.

Nash, Singh, Topp

It was an interesting week for Brian Topp, as Ed Broadbent came out against Thomas Mulcair's leadership bid. To put a sharper point on it, Topp was able to welcome the support of Sana Hassainia, the MP for Verchères-Les Patriotes. She had originally endorsed Mulcair, and from what I can tell is the first and only endorsement-switcher of the campaign.


Topp also received the endorsement of Maureen MacDonald, MLA in Nova Scotia and Health Minister in Darrell Dexter's NDP government. She had originally endorsed Robert Chisholm, who has since endorsed Mulcair. As half of Chisholm's endorsers who have not endorsed another candidate are given to Mulcair, the support of Hassainia and MacDonald actually results in Topp stealing endorsement points away from his chief rival.

Peggy Nash had two provincial endorsements to announce this past week, that of Cindy Forster (Ontario) and Leonard Preyra (Nova Scotia).

(Click here to learn more about the endorsement system and here for how the points are awarded. And, as always, you can right-click the lists of endorsers and open in a new tab or window to magnify them.)

Thomas Mulcair has made a net gain of 13.2 endorsement points since last week, putting him at 28.7% of the total. That is a 1.8 percentage point gain. This is his highest share of endorsement points in the campaign.

Brian Topp has gained three points but has dropped 0.4 percentage points to 26.5%.

Peggy Nash gained 1.5 points but dropped 0.5 percentage points to 23.4%. The gap between her and Topp widened by 1.5 points and 0.1 percentage points this past week.

Paul Dewar put up 0.5 new endorsement points but dropped 0.4 percentage points to only 12.8%, his lowest since January 25.

Nathan Cullen was the week's biggest gainer after Mulcair, thanks to Hyer's five points. It means he gained 0.4 percentage points, and now sits at 5.6% of the total.

Ashton gained one endorsement point and held steady with 3% of all endorsement points, while Martin Singh (who endorsed Mulcair as his second choice) remains endorsement-less.

I may be starting to sound like a broken record, but I think Nathan Cullen is likely to get much more than 5.6% of votes on the first ballot. He appears to be a candidate in the style of a Christy Clark or Alison Redford, that is to say one that has wide support among the membership but very little support among the establishment. A poll released by Forum at the end of February appears to back this up, as it indicated that 28% of NDP supporters in British Columbia favoured Cullen for the leadership of the party. Of course, NDP supporters are not the same as NDP members, but Cullen does have more financial support in British Columbia than all other candidates combined. That Cullen is probably the first (or at least second) choice of B.C. NDP members is important considering that British Columbia has the largest share of the NDP members in the country.

In that poll, Thomas Mulcair finished second among NDP supporters in British Columbia with 21%, while Brian Topp was not far behind at 19%. Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar were well behind with 13% and 11% support, respectively, while Niki Ashton stood at 7% and Martin Singh at only 2% of decided NDP supporters.

This is just one indication of how scattered NDP support will likely be on the first ballot. Let's assume every member in B.C. votes (they won't, but let's go with it anyway) and that Cullen gets 28% of those ballots. That is 11,200 votes out of the 131,000 ballots that could be cast by the weekend, enough alone to give Cullen 8.5% support within the party nationwide. A good score, but if Mulcair receives 21% of the votes from B.C., or 8,400, he can add that to the 11,480 votes he might get in Quebec (using Forum's latest poll where Mulcair had 82% support among NDP voters, and again assuming 100% turnout) and walk away with 15.2% of the party's votes, based on these two provinces alone.

With the exception of Quebec, we're likely to see this pattern repeated throughout the country. Brian Topp will probably get the most votes from Saskatchewan, but the other candidates will take a good share as well. Niki Ashton and Paul Dewar are likely the favourites in Manitoba, but that doesn't mean the other five candidates won't take, perhaps, the combined majority of the votes in that province.

This is why Thomas Mulcair is probably the best placed candidate. He is the consensus choice in Quebec, but appears to have moderate or strong support in every other province. If he can take 90% of the vote in Quebec by the final ballot, which does not seem unlikely, he would need roughly 45% support from the rest of the country. In other words, whoever is on the last ballot with Mulcair could take a majority of the vote in English Canada and still lose because of the advantage Mulcair already holds in Quebec. Add to this the likelihood that Quebec, whose membership is almost entirely new, will probably have the highest or one of the highest turnout rates in the country and Mulcair's advantage is increased.

Does it mean he is a shoo-in? Not exactly, as it is not difficult to imagine Mulcair taking less of the Quebec vote on the final ballot and his opponent taking more than 55% of the vote in English Canada. But there is nothing that indicates that any of the other major contenders can definitely be the choice of a large majority of NDP members outside of Quebec.

This is the last Wednesday update, but I will do a final update on Friday when the convention kicks off. I'm still making plans for the day of the convention, but I hope to run a live-blog with updated endorsement rankings throughout the day and some other neat stuff. I hope you'll stop by.

Mulcair tops endorsement rankings

For the first time in the NDP leadership campaign, Brian Topp has dropped from the first position in the endorsement rankings. He has given up the spot to Thomas Mulcair, who landed a slew of endorsements this past week from British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.

The most newsworthy and valuable endorsement for Thomas Mulcair came from Roméo Saganash, MP for Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou and former leadership candidate. However, his endorsement is not as valuable as it might have been - all of his former endorsers have gone elsewhere. And it is interesting to note that a lot of Saganash's team went over to the Paul Dewar camp.

Mulcair also received the endorsement of three former Ontario MPs: Neil Young, Iain Angus, and Ian Deans. They were joined by former British Columbia MPs Ian Waddell and Nelson Riis and former Manitoba MP Douglas Rowland.

Nicholas Simons, an NDP MLA from British Columbia, also endorsed Mulcair.

The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 353 and the Retail, Wholesale, and Department Store Union of Canada gave Mulcair their labour support this past week. I have been unable to determine the size of IBEW Local 353, but RWDSU Canada (which is affiliated with the UFCW, also endorsing Mulcair) has 12,500 members.

Peggy Nash received the endorsement of two British Columbia MLAs, Shane Simpson and Spencer Chandra Herbert. They are her first supporters from the B.C. NDP's provincial caucus.

Brian Topp also received the endorsement of two MLAs: Jim Morton from Nova Scotia and Christine Melnick, Immigration Minister in Greg Selinger's Manitoba government.

(Click here to learn more about the endorsement system and here for how the points are awarded. And, as always, you can right-click the list of endorsers and open in a new tab or window to magnify it.)

Thomas Mulcair gained 16.9 endorsement points this week, putting him at 229.2 overall and now 8.4 points ahead of Brian Topp, who has moved from first to second. Mulcair gained 1.4 percentage points and now leads with 27.9% of all endorsement points, his highest share of the campaign to date.

At 26.9%, Brian Topp is at his lowest point of the campaign. Though he did gain one endorsement point, he dropped 0.5 percentage points.

Peggy Nash gained two endorsement points but in the face of Mulcair's huge gain she dropped 0.3 percentage points to 23.9%.

Paul Dewar, Nathan Cullen, Niki Ashton, and Martin Singh did not land any new endorsements that were recorded by the rankings. Dewar has accordingly fallen 0.3 percentage points to 13.2%, while Cullen and Ashton fell 0.1 point each to 5.2% and 3.0%, respectively.

Does this mean that Brian Topp is no longer the establishment candidate? It is difficult to call Mulcair the anti-establishment candidate when he has racked up so many endorsements. He has the support of 43 caucus members (though only five of them are not rookies, no candidate has more than five "veteran" caucus endorsers), 11 provincial legislators, six current or former provincial party leaders, and 14 former MPs. His endorsements may not all have the cachet of an Ed Broadbent or a Roy Romanow, but he has lined up both newcomers and party elders to an impressive degree.

Of course, quality and quantity are two different things, and this is what the endorsement rankings attempt to measure. Topp does have the support of a Broadbent and a Romanow, as well as veteran caucus members, two other former leaders and a pile of provincial legislators and former MPs, including many well-known names. From a sheer numbers point of view, Mulcair has more support from within the party establishment. But from an influence perspective, Topp gets the nod.

And then there is Peggy Nash, who has landed a great deal of labour support. Though Topp and Mulcair have also gotten support from labour, Nash has the longest list that includes some of the country's largest and most powerful unions. She also has a great deal of support from women within the party - 13 of her 20 individual endorsers recorded in my rankings are women, a higher proportion that any other candidate by a significant margin.

Paul Dewar has a smaller number of supporters but many of them are veterans and influential within the party. Nathan Cullen has a very short and very B.C. list of endorsers, but the province has more members than any other in the country and Cullen appears to have the potential to be a real membership candidate. His establishment support is likely to turn out to be significantly smaller than his support within the rank-and-file.

This means that each candidate will have a solid chunk of first ballot votes, making the permutations of subsequent ballots difficult to predict. Will Cullen over- or under-achieve his now high expectations? Has Brian Topp been written off too early? Will Thomas Mulcair be able to attract enough second and third ballot support to put him over the 50% mark? What will be the names on the final ballot, and if it is going to be as close as some believe it will be, how important will candidate endorsements on the convention floor turn out to be? There may only be 10,000 or so ballots to cast on March 24 out of the 100,000+ expected to vote in the race, but they could make all the difference.

Mulcair lands more endorsements, best performer in poll

Both Thomas Mulcair and Peggy Nash secured some major endorsements this past week, but a new poll suggests that only Mulcair can save the New Democrats in Quebec. While that may not come as a surprise, the extent of the cull of NDP MPs in the province under a Brian Topp or Peggy Nash-led party is remarkable.

But first, let's get to the endorsement rankings. Thomas Mulcair made the biggest gains this past week.

His most valuable endorsement comes from Robert Chisholm, a Nova Scotia MP and former leader of the party there. But most importantly, he was a former candidate for the leadership and I assigned Mulcair half of the points Chisholm had earned from endorsements that have not been given to another candidate.

Mulcair also received the endorsement of David Christopherson, a four-term MP for Hamilton Centre who used to sit in Bob Rae's Ontario government.

Three BC MLAs, Mike Farnworth, Jenny Kwan, and Rob Fleming, also gave Mulcair their endorsements. Farnworth was a former candidate for the BC NDP leadership, but though he was a frontrunner going into the convention he ended up being defeated by Adrian Dix. A bad omen for Mulcair?

Finally, Mulcair also got some labour endorsements from the 100,000-strong Service Employees International Union and the 10,000-strong Amalgamated Transit Union Local 113.

Peggy Nash beefed up her already impressive list of labour supporters with the endorsement of CUPE President Paul Moist. CUPE has 615,000 members nationwide, but since Nash had already received the endorsement of CUPE Ontario (200,000 members), she has gained only 415,000-members' worth of endorsement points.

Nash also got the endorsement of Raymond Côté, MP for Beauport-Limoilou, and former British Columbian MP Margaret Mitchell.

Paul Dewar received the endorsement of two caucus members: Dennis Bevington, three-term MP for Western Arctic, and Christine Moore, MP for Abitibi-Témicamingue. Moore had originally endorsed Roméo Saganash.

Finally, Brian Topp received a spate of endorsements from NDP luminaries in Saskatchewan. The only one recorded in my system, however, is former Saskatchewan MP John Solomon.

(Click here to learn more about the endorsement system and here for how the points are awarded. And, as always, you can right-click the list of endorsers and open in a new tab or window to magnify it.)

Brian Topp remains at the top of the table with 219.8 endorsements points, gaining two this week. But he lost 2.5 percentage points, slipping to 27.4%.

He is only narrowly ahead of Thomas Mulcair, who gained 31.1 points and 1.6 percentage points. He now has 26.5% of all available points.

Peggy Nash gained 29.4 points and 1.6 percentage points. She stands at 24.2%.

Paul Dewar is unchanged at 13.5% of endorsement points, though he gained 10 points for his two caucus endorsements.

Nathan Cullen has dropped 0.5 percentage points to 5.3% while Niki Ashton is down 0.3 percentage points to 3.1%. But considering that Cullen is doing very well in fundraising of late, he is undoubtedly doing much better among the membership than he is among the establishment.

Now to the Forum poll on how Canadians would vote with different leaders of the NDP. Forum limited the questions to Thomas Mulcair, Brian Topp, and Peggy Nash. It would have been interesting to have Paul Dewar and Nathan Cullen included, but it seems unlikely that Cullen or Dewar would have radically different results.

As this chart shows, Thomas Mulcair performs much better than either Peggy Nash or Brian Topp among the electorate.

A Mulcair-led NDP would have the support of 30% of Canadians and stand only two points behind the Conservatives.

Contrast that to a Nash-led NDP that would have the support of 24% of Canadians and be tied with the Liberals, and a Topp-led NDP that would drop to 23% and third place.

But what is most remarkable is what difference the identity of the leader makes in Quebec. Under Thomas Mulcair, the New Democrats would return to 40% support. Though the Liberals would pick up some support compared to May 2011, Mulcair manages to reduce Bloc support below 20%.

Under Brian Topp, the NDP would have only 20% support and rank behind the Bloc (27%) and the Liberals (25%). It could get even worse under Peggy Nash, as the party would sink to 18% support. Considering Paul Dewar's difficulties in French and his lack of recognition in the province, we can safely assume his numbers would be similar to Nash's.

With Thomas Mulcair, the New Democrats hold on to their 58 seats in Quebec. Under Mulcair, the NDP even squashes the Bloc Québécois to non-existence. The Liberals would win 13 seats and the Conservatives only four, one fewer than they currently have in the province.

But under Brian Topp, who was born and raised in Quebec, the New Democrats are decimated and reduced to only three seats. The Bloc returns with a vengeance and wins 38 seats, while the Liberals take 22 and the Conservatives 12.

Under Peggy Nash, the NDP is returned to the pre-2011 days in the province with only one seat. The Liberals and Conservatives still win 22 and 12 seats, respectively, while the Bloc makes the gains to hit 40 seats.

New Democrats might ask themselves if it is worth keeping Quebec if they lose the rest of the country or are unable to make gains. That might seem to be the case with Thomas Mulcair, but this poll does not bear that out.

There really isn't much difference in the rest of Canada between a Mulcair-led NDP and an NDP led by either Topp or Nash.

In fact, Mulcair performs better than his adversaries in the West and Atlantic Canada. He would take 22% of the vote in the four western provinces, compared to 21% for Topp and 19% for Nash. In Atlantic Canada, he wins 35%, compared to 31% for Nash or Topp.

Peggy Nash does have the best profile in Ontario, taking 30% of the vote to Mulcair's 28% and Topp's 27%. But Mulcair is best in seat-rich British Columbia (26% to 21% for Nash/Topp). The three perform equally in Alberta at 13%, while Mulcair does well in the Prairies (29%) compared to 32% for Topp but only 27% for Nash.

Mulcair also has the most potential to steal from other parties. While Topp and Nash can't take more than 5% support from other parties, Mulcair manages to attract 11% of Liberal supporters and 23% of Bloc supporters. He retains 81% of NDP voters, while Topp retains 76% and Nash 75%.

So while Mulcair may have enemies within the party, he is much more appreciated among the electorate. Cullen, too, has fierce opponents within the NDP but Canadians seem to like his main proposal. The country is split at 43% for and 43% against his idea of joint nominations. Fully 58% of Quebecers like the idea and 60% of New Democratic voters. Even 59% of Liberal voters think it is a good idea.

There is a chance that members of the NDP are diverging from the opinions of its supporters. Some New Democrats might cringe at the thought of moving closer to the centre, as they may do under Mulcair or Cullen, but that is what Canadians seem to want. It is certainly possible that Canadians would warm up to Topp, Nash, or Dewar by the time 2015 rolls around, or that Mulcair would repel them by then, but at this stage it would appear the Canadians are looking for the kind of NDP that Mulcair would lead.

Mulcair nabs western endorsements

Four candidates picked up major endorsements over the last week as the campaign enters its final stage. Thomas Mulcair made the biggest splash, however, gaining support from a former premier and a slew of party luminaries in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

The biggest name added to Thomas Mulcair's campaign was that of former British Columbia Premier Mike Harcourt, who led the province from 1991 to 1996 and the provincial party from 1987 to 1996. Mulcair also received the endorsements of a great deal of other party members in the province, but none that are recorded in this system.

Saskatchewan also plumped for Mulcair in huge numbers, with four former Saskatchewan MPs (John Burton, Ron Fisher, Vic Althouse, and Ray Funk) recorded in the rankings. Mulcair got the support of several former MLAs as well, some of them former cabinet ministers, but the eight points he gained from these four former MPs should represent his new-found Saskatchewan support well enough.

Brian Topp also landed some important endorsements this past week, gaining the support of the 130,000-strong Communications, Energy, and Paperworkers Union of Canada. He also received the endorsements of Rachel Notley, an NDP MLA from Alberta, and Warren McCall, an NDP MLA from Saskatchewan. These are, to my knowledge, the first provincial legislators from these two provinces to make an endorsement.

Nathan Cullen expanded his support outside of British Columbia with the endorsements of former Ontario MP Lynn McDonald and the current Manitoba Minister for Healthy Living and Seniors, Jim Rondeau.

Finally, Peggy Nash received the support of Ontario MPP Jonah Schein.

(Click here to learn more about the endorsement system and here for how the points are awarded. And, as always, you can right-click the list of endorsers and open in a new tab or window to magnify it.)

Brian Topp has gained 8.8 endorsement points, allowing him to tread water at 29.9% of all currently assigned endorsement points. He remains at the top of the leader board.

Thomas Mulcair has gained 18 endorsement points and has surpassed Peggy Nash to re-take second spot. He now has 24.9% of the points, a gain of 1.5 percentage points since last week. This is his highest share since January 4.

Peggy Nash gained one endorsement point but dropped 0.8 percentage points to 22.6%, her lowest share since January 18.

Paul Dewar did not gain any endorsement points and so dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 13.5%, his lowest mark since January 25.

Nathan Cullen gained 2.5 endorsement points to reach 5.8%, his highest share of the campaign so far, while Niki Ashton dropped to 3.4%. Martin Singh remains without a single endorsement point.

When Forum polled Quebecers recently, they asked who they would like to see as the next leader of the NDP. The result may (not) shock you.

Thomas Mulcair is the choice of 46% of Quebecers, 48% of francophones, 26% of non-francophones, 58% of New Democratic supporters in Quebec, and 82% of decided NDP supporters in the province. He is absolutely dominant, surpassing the "don't knows" in every demographic except non-francophones (49% of them are undecided).

While Brian Topp may very well be doing better among the NDP's membership in the province, he does not pose much of a challenge for the hearts and minds of Quebecers. Though he is within the MOE of the other candidates, he is the consensus second choice with 5% support among Quebecers, 4% among francophones, 9% among non-francophones, 6% among NDP supporters, and 9% among decided NDP supporters.

There is no real third choice, especially considering we're talking about a range of 2% to 4% for the third place finishers in each group. For what it is worth, and it is worth very little, Peggy Nash comes up third or tied for third among all Quebecers, francophones, and decided NDP supporters. Paul Dewar is tied for third among all Quebecers, Nathan Cullen is tied for third among all Quebecers and francophones, and Niki Ashton is third or tied for third among all Quebecers and non-francophones.

Though it seems unlikely that Thomas Mulcair will get the support of as much as 82% of the NDP's 12,000+ members in Quebec, he is probably going to receive a comfortable majority of the province's support. That puts him in a strong position, particularly considering his inroads this week in British Columbia and Saskatchewan, home to 50,000 NDP members. I do believe that the endorsement rankings are correct in making Brian Topp the "establishment" favourite, but Mulcair is probably alone at the top among the members as a whole. There are still a few debates to go and Mulcair's campaign is set to announce another caucus endorsement at noon today. The race continues.

Topp, Dewar make endorsement gains

A relatively quiet week on the endorsement front was compensated for by the release of the number of NDP members eligible to vote in the leadership contest. Party membership ballooned to almost 130,000 members, but the party did not hit the 20,000 members in Quebec that Thomas Mulcair targeted. Instead, a little over 12,000 members from Quebec will be eligible to vote for the next leader of the NDP, a slightly smaller group than the number of people who voted in the Bloc Québécois leadership race in December.

As for the endorsements, Brian Topp landed some new ones this week, the first time he has received some extra points in my rankings for quite awhile.

He received the support of former Manitoba MP Rod Murphy as well as Nova Scotia MLA Gary Burrill. The endorsement of two former BC MPs, Lynn Hunter and James Manly, was also added to the rankings. I can't find any announcement of when these endorsements took place, but they were mentioned in a rundown of Brian Topp's endorsements from British Columbia this week.

Paul Dewar also landed two significant endorsements: Hélène Laverdière, the MP from Laurier-Sainte-Marie, and Hoang Mai, MP for Brossard-La Prairie. They are both rookie MPs from Quebec but they are also some of the brighter ones from the province. They certainly help with Dewar's stature in Quebec after questions about his French.

Nathan Cullen received the endorsement of Taras Natyshak, an MPP from Essex in Ontario. Along with Brian Masse, this is Cullen's second endorsement from the province.

Thomas Mulcair also received the endorsement of Charles Taylor, a very well known academic in Quebec and a former candidate for the NDP. He isn't recorded in my rankings, but it is definitely an important endorsement in the province.

(Click here to learn more about the endorsement system and here for how the points are awarded. And, as always, you can right-click the list of endorsers and open in a new tab or window to magnify it.)

Brian Topp has gained 0.4 percentage points in the share of endorsement points and still leads with 29.9%. He is followed closely by Peggy Nash (down 0.5 points to 23.4%) and Thomas Mulcair (down 0.4 points to 23.4% as well). Paul Dewar is up 0.4 points to 14.0%, while Nathan Cullen is unchanged at 5.7%. Niki Ashton has dropped 0.1 percentage point to 3.5%, while Martin Singh remains endorsement-less.

But the share of endorsement points is calculated nationwide, regardless of the number of members in each province of the country. What if we weigh the share of endorsement points regionally by membership?

This is a little difficult as some of the endorsers (i.e. national unions and federal leaders) aren't defined regionally. In those cases, their points have been portioned out proportionately according to the membership numbers across the country.

Regionally, Brian Topp has the largest share in New Brunswick (83.1%), Saskatchewan (64.5%), and British Columbia (53.1%), and is second in the territories (36.6%), Alberta (26.3%), Manitoba (25.2%), Nova Scotia (24.3%), Quebec (16.0%), and Prince Edward Island (13.4%).

Peggy Nash has the largest share in Newfoundland and Labrador (64.0%), Nova Scotia (55.2%), Alberta (45.6%), the territories (48.6%), and Ontario (35.7%). She places second in Saskatchewan (16.6%).

Thomas Mulcair has the largest share in Prince Edward Island (75.8%) and Quebec (62.5%). He places second in Newfoundland and Labrador (27.3%) and New Brunswick (13.8%).

Paul Dewar has the largest share in Manitoba (27.6%) and places second in Ontario (24.8%).

Nathan Cullen has his largest share in British Columbia, where he places second with 15.5%. Niki Ashton's largest share is in Manitoba (19.7%).

Taken together, Brian Topp's big advantage in endorsements in British Columbia, along with good support in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba help him take 33.8% of endorsement points when weighted for regional membership totals. This shows how key British Columbia is in this race.

Peggy Nash's support in Ontario and Alberta allow her to place second comfortably with 24.7% of weighted endorsement points.

The high level of caucus support Thomas Mulcair has in Quebec, however, does not give him much as the province represents less than 1 in 10 members. He places third in the weighted share of endorsement points with 16.7%, while Paul Dewar places fourth with 15.1%.

Nathan Cullen ends up with 6.4% of endorsement points while Niki Ashton gets 3.3%.

But based on the polling that has been released, it would appear that Thomas Mulcair is doing much better than this - which should come as no surprise. Quebec doesn't have as large a share of the NDP's membership as its population and representation warrants, but some members from across the country are undoubtedly recognizing Mulcair's strength in the province and the importance of Quebec to the NDP's future. This is one reason why the endorsement points system is somewhat abstract. It doesn't merely represent the ability of an individual to sign-up new members or pull-in support on voting day. It also accounts for the significance endorsements can have. Does a member in British Columbia care that the MP for a rural francophone riding in Quebec supports Thomas Mulcair? Probably not. Does he or she care that Mulcair has the largest amount of caucus support? Maybe.

If Brian Topp does end up with less than 20% support on the first ballot, as the internal polls from the Dewar and Mulcair campaigns suggested, he will have seriously under-performed expectations. From all of the information that is available (internal polls, polls of supporters, fundraising, membership numbers, endorsements, buzz) it seems relatively clear that if the vote were held today Thomas Mulcair would end up on top with some 25% to 30% support, while Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar would place strongly in the second tier somewhere around 20%. Nathan Cullen looks like he'll have solid support in the low-to-mid teens.

But where Topp ends up is the mystery - could he really have first ballot support in the mid-teens, after having the best fundraising totals and extensive establishment support? The placement of the other four major candidates seems far more predictable, but where Topp finishes could be far more important. Topp is seen to be closer to Peggy Nash on the spectrum and both are based in Toronto. But there's also some talk about the need to have a Quebecer, either Mulcair or Topp, as the next leader. If he is placed second to Mulcair on the first ballot, will he get subsequent ballot support from Nash's voters? If he is placed nearer to the bottom, will his supporters swing to a fellow Quebecer, or will he bolster Nash's chances?

With four candidates almost splitting the vote between them, and with a fifth (Cullen) seemingly having a good chunk of support as well, the final result is difficult to predict. Add to that the pre-determined preferential ballot and the voters who will cast their ballots the day of the convention and things are wildly unpredictable. Imagine a situation where Paul Dewar is the consensus second choice on the preferential ballots submitted before the convention but he makes a mistake in the final days or throws his support to another candidate on the convention floor. He would still be the consensus second choice on the ballots that are already locked in but not on the ballots cast on March 24.

And this potential exists for every candidate, twisting the results in confusing ways. The possibilities boggle the mind.

Cullen, Mulcair, Nash receive more caucus support

It is safe to say that we can call this past week one of the most interesting so far of the NDP leadership campaign. In addition to some caucus support being handed out to three of the candidates last week, there was the withdrawal of Roméo Saganash from the race, a debate in Quebec City, and a flurry of polls from the campaigns of Paul Dewar and Thomas Mulcair, followed by a war of words.

I'll take a look at the two polls later, but first let's get to this week's endorsement rankings update. UPDATE: This post has been edited since the version posted this morning. It neglected to include the endorsement of Pierre Dionne Labelle.

Endorsements recorded this past week came exclusively from NDP MPs, and Nathan Cullen made arguably the most important splash by getting the support of five-term MP Brian Masse from Windsor West.

Though Nathan Cullen's fundraising and, now, poll numbers have been surprisingly good, his support within the party establishment has been quite thin. All of it had come from British Columbia, but with Masse's support Cullen has broadened his base of endorsers outside of his home province. It also gives Cullen another experienced supporter. His three caucus supporters have won a combined total of 10 elections.

Thomas Mulcair also expanded his caucus support with the endorsements of Denis Blanchette (Louis-Hébert), Ruth Ellen Brosseau (Berthier-Maskinongé), and two-term Sudbury MP Glenn Thibeault. He also received the support of Pierre Dionne Labelle, the MP from Rivière-du-Nord who had previously endorsed Roméo Saganash. This now puts his publicly declared caucus support at 40 MPs, or more than two out of every five NDP MPs not vying for the party leadership.

Peggy Nash also received some more caucus support with the endorsements of Laurin Liu (Rivière-des-Milles-Îles) and Elaine Michaud (Portneuf-Jacques Cartier). This puts her caucus support at 8 MPs.

This makes Nathan Cullen and Thomas Mulcair this week's winners, with a boost of 12.5 points apiece. Peggy Nash gains five endorsement points.

(Click here to learn more about the endorsement system and here for how the points are awarded. And, as always, you can right-click the list of endorsers and open in a new tab or window to magnify it.)

In terms of the endorsement rankings, Brian Topp is still first but he has dropped a percentage point to 29.5%. This is the first time his establishment support has dropped below the 30% mark.

Peggy Nash is unchanged at 23.9% of all endorsement points, while Thomas Mulcair makes a 1.1-point gain to reach 23.8%, just behind Nash. Paul Dewar drops 0.4 points to 13.6%.

Nathan Cullen makes the largest gain in point share with a 1.7-point boost to 5.7%, his highest of the campaign so far. Niki Ashton drops 0.1 point to 3.6% while Martin Singh remains at zero. Roméo Saganash had 1.1% of endorsement points before his withdrawal.

The endorsement rankings do not line up with the two polls released by the Paul Dewar and Thomas Mulcair campaigns, they though do identify the five frontrunners correctly, put Peggy Nash in second, and Paul Dewar about where the polls have him. But the endorsement rankings aren't meant as a predictor, rather they are more of another way to gauge the race. It may end up being much closer to the results once the campaign is over and all the endorsements have been made, however.

The poll from the Paul Dewar campaign on Monday quickly got people's attention, and perhaps deflected attention away from Dewar's relatively poor performance at the French-language debate on Sunday in Quebec City.

I watched the debate and felt that of the seven candidates only Paul Dewar and Martin Singh seemed to be in great difficulty when not relying on their notes. While Nathan Cullen's French is also rough, he speaks it with confidence and at the very least would be capable of keeping up with Stephen Harper in a French-language debate. Peggy Nash and Niki Ashton's French was quite good, while Topp is fluent. Mulcair is still, by far, the most comfortable in both the debate setting and in the language.

The Dewar poll is a large poll conducted by Solus One, a call centre, but taken just before Saganash's withdrawal and the Quebec City debate. It shows Thomas Mulcair in front with 25.5%, followed by Peggy Nash (16.8%) and Paul Dewar (15.1%). Nathan Cullen comes up fourth, surprisingly, with 12.8%, while Brian Topp took 12.7% support.

The Topp campaign disputed these figures immediately. But Thomas Mulcair's campaign then came forward with their own poll, conducted a few days before Dewar's and using a smaller (but still respectable) sample. Mulcair's poll found that he was leading with 31.1%, followed by Nash (17.5%), Topp (14.8%), Cullen (14.2%), and Dewar (13.8%).

Those first ballot results are actually quite tightly grouped with the findings of Dewar's poll. If we round those off, we get Thomas Mulcair at 26%-31% support, Nash at 17%-18%, Dewar at 14%-15%, Topp at 13%-15%, and Cullen at 13%-14%. With the support of the four candidates in the teens not varying by more than two points, it does seem like this could very well be the state of the campaign.

If we average the two polls out, we get:

FIRST CHOICE
28.3% - Thomas Mulcair
17.2% - Peggy Nash
14.5% - Paul Dewar
13.8% - Brian Topp
13.5% - Nathan Cullen

In other words, no candidate with a chance to win on the first ballot and four candidates bunched up in second. With the margins of error and the weeks that remain in the campaign, the first of the five frontrunners to be dropped off the ballot is anyone's guess. One would imagine that Brian Topp's fundraising would give him the edge in these final weeks, but the NDP's members are certainly the type to be put-off by anything that doesn't smell like grassroots.

With no first ballot winner, that means we go to a second ballot. Here the two polls are not in full agreement. The poll from the Dewar campaign puts their guy in first on the second ballot with 21.2%, followed by Peggy Nash (19.4%), Thomas Mulcair (16.7%), Nathan Cullen (14.4%), and Brian Topp (12.4%). Those are good numbers for Dewar and Nash, good enough for Mulcair, and anemic for Topp.

But the Mulcair campaign finds that Peggy Nash has the strongest second choice support with 25.4%, followed by Mulcair (21.0%), Topp (19.7%), and Dewar (13.7%). Great numbers for Nash, good enough for Mulcair and Topp, and problematic for Dewar. While the Dewar poll indicates that Topp would likely fall off the ballot first, Mulcair's poll points to Dewar being the first to fall by the wayside.

These are far more widely grouped: 19%-25% for Nash, 17%-21% for Mulcair, 14%-21% for Dewar, and 12%-20% for Topp. They do seem to suggest, however, that the top four candidates generally have decent second ballot potential with Peggy Nash being the strongest positioned.

Averaging out the second choice polls (unfortunately the results for Nathan Cullen, Niki Ashton, Roméo Saganash, and Martin Singh were not reported with Mulcair's poll), we get:

SECOND CHOICE
22.4% - Peggy Nash
18.9% - Thomas Mulcair
17.5% - Paul Dewar
16.1% - Brian Topp

Mashing the first and second choice numbers together, we find Thomas Mulcair to have the highest potential at between 43% and 52% choosing him as their first or second choice. That's just enough to give him the win. Next is Peggy Nash (36% to 43%), then Paul Dewar (28% to 36%) and finally Brian Topp (25% to 35%). Adding up the first and second choices to give total first-second choice support averages, we get:

FIRST AND SECOND CHOICE
47.2% - Thomas Mulcair
39.6% - Peggy Nash
32.0% - Paul Dewar
29.9% - Brian Topp

This would seem to point to a final ballot of Mulcair and Nash. Cullen would likely not be too far behind Topp. As Mulcair/Cullen and Nash/Topp seem to be the most likely pairings, it means a very close finish between Thomas Mulcair and Peggy Nash. This seems a very plausible outcome.

There are only a few days left before the cut-off for new members to be able to vote in the leadership race, meaning there is little time left for candidates to sign-up dedicated supporters. The campaign now turns to getting down-ballot support and the nod from undecideds and fence-sitters. On the one hand, that means playing nice. On the other, it means the gloves need to come off. It should be an interesting 5 1/2 weeks.

NDP up in BC, down in Quebec

On Friday, The National Post reported on a new Forum Research poll that looked at the federal voting intentions of Canadians. It also peeked at who Canadians think should be the next leader of the NDP.

Of course, yesterday was quite the day in NDP polling, as internal numbers from the Dewar and Mulcair campaigns were released. I'll go into more detail on them tomorrow when the endorsement rankings are updated, but in the meantime you can read my article about them at The Huffington Post Canada here.

Forum was last in the field on January 13, and since then there has been very little change at the national level. The Conservatives are up one to 36%, the New Democrats are unchanged at 28%, and the Liberals are up one to 26%.

The Bloc Québécois is steady at 6% while the Greens are down one to 3%.

Things are also steady in Ontario, where the Conservatives are at 42% (+1), the Liberals are at 29%, and the NDP is at 24% (-1).

But there have been big shifts in Quebec and British Columbia. On the West Coast, the New Democrats have picked up seven points and now lead with 39%, well ahead of the Conservatives. And this despite them gaining two points to hit 32%. The Liberals have made the room, dropping six points to 24%.

Quebec is the most significant change, as the Liberals have moved into first place ahead of the NDP. They are up seven points to 28% while the New Democrats are down four points to 25%. The Conservatives are up two to 24% and the Bloc is down three to 20%.

Could it be? While Forum is the first and only polling firm to put the Liberals ahead of the NDP in Quebec, they are not the first to show an increase in Liberal strength in the province as well as a decrease in support for the NDP.

This chart shows results in Quebec for the Liberals and NDP since the beginning of December (not spaced out correctly for time, but you get the idea). While the results are somewhat of a scatter shot, an uptick in Liberal support coupled with a slip in NDP support has become apparent.

This is somewhat surprising, though not because the New Democrats may have slipped into second. They have been on a downward trajectory since October-November. What is surprising is that the Liberals, the party of the sponsorship scandal, may have moved into first. Many had suspected that Quebec was lost to the Liberals and would be for a very long time. Perhaps a rebound of the Bloc Québécois is not inevitable, and in the absence of a consensus alternative to the unpopular Conservatives it is the Liberals that will benefit.

The rest of the poll shows pretty standard fare, the Conservatives well ahead in the Prairies (including Alberta) and a three-way race in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservatives win 150 seats with the results of this poll. The New Democrats win 84 and the Liberals take 67, which is quite problematic for them. With a total of 151 seats, the NDP and Liberals are not in a position to form a majority coalition government. For one, the Conservatives are too high in Ontario, but the NDP and Liberals are also shooting each other in the foot by running so close together as the alternative option.

The Conservatives win 13 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 16 in the Prairies, 64 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 16 seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, nine in the Prairies, 22 in Ontario, 28 in Quebec, six in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win six seats in British Columbia, three in the Prairies, 20 in Ontario, 25 in Quebec, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Bloc Québécois wins six seats in Quebec and the Greens win one in British Columbia.

Now to the NDP leadership race, which Forum has been polling for some time. Their findings have been waved off as irrelevant since they are polling all Canadians or NDP supporters (as if their opinions are irrelevant!), but surprisingly the most recent figures from Forum actually line-up generally well with the recent internal polling from the campaigns of Paul Dewar and Thomas Mulcair. Aside from a slight under-estimation of Nathan Cullen's support and an over-estimation of Thomas Mulcair's, Forum's polling of NDP supporters is actually not too far off what polls of NDP members have indicated.

In this survey, Mulcair leads the pack among decided NDP supporters with 38%, followed by Peggy Nash at 17%, Paul Dewar at 14%, and Brian Topp at 12%. If we take out the undecideds, Mulcair has the support of 19% to 8% for Nash, 7% for Dewar, and 6% for Topp. Canadians generally share that opinion, though there is a tie among the three that appear to have been identified as running in a close race for second in Dewar's and Mulcair's polling.

Since Forum has begun tracking these numbers, there has been very little change. Mulcair was at 19% among all NDP supporters in early January as well, while the others have been going up or down a tick over the past few months without any clear trend. It would appear that NDP supporters are most apt to prefer Mulcair but aside from that no other candidate is building up a head of steam, at least in the opinion of the general public. But it is interesting to see that their opinion is not so out of step with that of the NDP's membership, at least at this stage of the game.

What U.S.-style primaries might look like for the NDP

The excitement surrounding the NDP leadership race pales in comparison to the headline-grabbing contest for the Republican nomination in the United States. But what if the New Democrats adopted U.S.-style primaries to choose their next leader? 

You can read the full article on The Globe and Mail website here. Once you do that, come back to read the details of this hypothetical NDP primary.

Politicos in Canada are spoiled being by so close and having so much access to the political drama that unfolds every two years in the United States. The mid-terms are an appetizer but the presidential race is a true meal, lasting over a year. The 2012 Republican primaries are about as roller coaster as they come, yet here in Canada the race to choose our next leader of the Official Opposition is not nearly as exciting.

Because of the way our parties do things, leadership races here are very much aimed at the party and their members and little else. Whereas in the United States some primaries allow registered Republicans, independents, and even Democrats to vote (i.e., everyone), here in Canada the privilege is limited to members only. The chances that a party will choose someone that doesn't have wide appeal always exists, because a leader has to hit the right notes among the party faithful in order to be chosen. Whether a message that resonates with the party faithful will also resonate with a plurality of Canadians is, sometimes, a secondary consideration.

So what if the New Democrats held primaries in each province in order to choose their next leader, allowing anyone who supported the NDP to vote? I thought that would be a fun and interesting exercise.

How did I calculate the results? Four factors were weighted equally to come up with the support each candidate would get in each province. The four factors were the recent Forum Research poll of NDP supporters, the recent Abacus Data poll of which candidates would make people more likely to vote NDP, ThreeHundredEight's endorsement rankings divvied up by province, and the endorsement rankings adjusted by the Q3 and Q4 fundraising totals for each of the candidates. Those were combined together to give a vote share for each province. Delegates were divided up proportionately across the 13 provinces and territories to total 1,000, and delegates were awarded to each candidate proportionate to their vote share.

The Globe piece provides a narrative with a few US-inspired touches, but let's look at the actual results this exercise gave for each of the provinces, in the order that the primaries are deemed to have been held in this hypothetical scenario. The schedule was determined mostly by the debate schedule of the NDP leadership race. And if these graphics resemble those of a certain American 24-hour news channel, that is not exactly by accident.

Thanks in large part to good endorsements in the province and decent polling numbers in the region, Thomas Mulcair wins the first primary in PEI (scheduled January 24) with 43%, with Brian Topp trailing with 28%, Paul Dewar with 13%, and Peggy Nash with 8%. Niki Ashton heads the bottom tier with 4%. With this first win, Mulcair takes two delegates to one for Brian Topp and one for Paul Dewar.

With the debate in Halifax on January 29, primaries are held in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick on January 31. Brian Topp has the strongest polling numbers in Atlantic Canada, and with good endorsements in New Brunswick he wins 57% of the vote in the primary, followed by Mulcair at 17%, Dewar at 12%, and Nash at 5%. Ashton comes up fifth with 4%.

In Nova Scotia, Peggy Nash's endorsements give her the win with 31%, followed closely by Topp at 29%, Mulcair at 19%, and Dewar at 13%. Again, Ashton comes up fifth with 4%.

With these two primaries, Brian Topp moves into the lead with 21 delegates, followed by Mulcair with 11, Nash with nine, Dewar with seven, Ashton with two, Martin Singh with two, and Nathan Cullen with one. Romeo Saganash has zero, and in real life he pulled out of the race after the dates I scheduled for the first three primaries. So he was dropped off for future primaries.

After unofficial debates in Saskatoon on February 7 and a forum in Edmonton on February 8, the next primary is held on February 14 in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Topp's good polling in Alberta and Nash's labour support make them the two top finishers in the province, with 35% for Brian Topp, 25% for Nash, 19% for Dewar, and 13% for Mulcair. Ashton finishes fifth with 6%. In Saskatchewan, Topp's endorsements allow him to walk away with it with 51% to 25% for Mulcair, 10% for Ashton, and 9% for Nash. Dewar finishes with 7%.

This puts Brian Topp further in the lead with 75 delegates. Peggy Nash is second at this point with 40, followed by Mulcair with 32, Dewar with 30, Ashton with 12, Singh with three, and Cullen with two. One can already imagine the grumbling in the Mulcair and Dewar campaigns after a few bad finishes.

The primaries in the territories and Newfoundland and Labrador are then held on February 21, with Peggy Nash winning both of them thanks to her endorsements in both areas. Nash wins 31% in Newfoundland and Labrador, with Mulcair taking 25%, Topp 23%, and Dewar 12%. Ashton finishes fifth with 4%.

In the territories, Nash takes 38% to Topp's 24%, Mulcair's 20%, and Dewar's 12%. Nathan Cullen finishes fifth with 2%.

At this stage, Brian Topp would still lead in the delegates with 79. Peggy Nash closes the gap a little with 46, while Mulcair (37), Dewar (32), Ashton (13), Singh (3), and Cullen (2) trail.

After the Winnipeg debate on February 26, Manitoba holds its primary on February 28. In the Prairie provinces, Mulcair, Topp, and Ashton have polled the best but in Manitoba most of the endorsements have gone to Dewar and Ashton. The result is a narrow Mulcair win with 28%. He's followed closely by Paul Dewar (one can imagine this being Dewar's first "big effort" province) at 23%, Brian Topp at 22%, and Niki Ashton with 17%. Nash follows in fifth with 9%.

This win gives what would have been Mulcair's sagging campaign a boost, but Topp would still lead in the delegate count with 87. Peggy Nash follows at this stage with 49, with Mulcair (47) and Dewar (40) not far behind. Ashton lands six delegates in Manitoba and is at 19 at this stage, with Cullen and Singh at three apiece.

The first big primary is then scheduled for March 6, after the debates in Quebec City (February 12) and Montreal (March 4). Obviously, this one is Mulcair's to win and he does with 69% of the vote. Brian Topp finishes second with 17%, with Nash at 8% and Dewar and Singh at 2% apiece.

With this big win, Mulcair moves to the front of the pack with 206 delegates to 126 for Topp, 68 for Nash, and 45 for Dewar. Ashton follows with 22 delegate to Singh's seven and Cullen's five. The race would change complexion here with Mulcair now the frontrunner.

And then comes what I dubbed Super Tuesday in my article, the primaries in British Columbia and Ontario on March 13. With the majority of the delegates at stake, the race would be won or lost here.

In British Columbia, Brian Topp and Nathan Cullen lead in both the polls and the endorsements, meaning that Brian Topp wins with 45% of the vote to Cullen's 19%. Mulcair trails in third with 13%, followed by Nash (11%) and Dewar (7%). It's a big win for Topp and gives Cullen a boost.

In Ontario, the polling is far more favourable to Nash and Dewar and they are the two frontrunners. Nash edges out Dewar with 32% to 26% of the vote, followed by Topp at 18%, Mulcair at 15%, and Cullen at 4%. Dewar or Nash had to really win big in Ontario to have a shot at overtaking Topp or Mulcair.

After the last primary, Thomas Mulcair still leads the delegate count with 282, but he is far short of the 501 needed to win. Brian Topp takes 256 delegates to the convention, with Peggy Nash claiming 208 and Paul Dewar 154. After his good performances in Ontario and British Columbia, Nathan Cullen pulls ahead to stand fifth with 47 delegates, while Niki Ashton has 35 and Martin Singh 18.

There you have it - a plausible description of what might happen if the New Democrats held primaries to choose their leader and opened up the race to all supporters, rather than just members. Does it tell us anything about the race itself? Not really, though it does give an indication of the regional pockets of strength each candidate might be expected to have. It is really more of a fun little exercise that shows how much more interesting primaries would be than the current model our parties use here in Canada.