Monday, May 11, 2009

Monthly Picture: April 2009

Another month has passed, and so it is time to take a look at how the parties polled over the entire month of April, and to compare that to March. There were six national polls in April, totaling 7,606 people polled in all. First, the national polling results with the change from March in brackets:

Liberals - 34.6% (+1.4)
Conservatives - 31.7% (-2.6)
New Democrats - 14.9% (+0.7)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.4% (-0.1)
Greens - 8.2% (unchanged)

This is a good trend for the Liberals, who were behind the Conservatives in March. The NDP seems to have stopped the bleeding, but are still below even their February 2009 level.

Now, what this would give in the seat projection, with the difference from March in brackets:

Liberals - 132 (+14)
Conservatives - 109 (-17)
Bloc Quebecois - 49 (-1)
New Democrats - 18 (+4)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

And now, regional results.

BRITISH COLUMBIA (four polls)

Conservatives - 34.5% (-8.0)
Liberals - 30.2% (+3.7)
New Democrats - 24.0% (+3.2)
Greens - 10.6% (+1.8)

ALBERTA (four polls)

Conservatives - 58.9% (-1.1)
Liberals - 20.8% (+2.8)
Greens - 10.7% (+2.9)
New Democrats - 8.2% (-3.8)

PRAIRIES (four polls)

Conservatives - 44.9% (-4.9)
Liberals - 27.8% (+2.5)
New Democrats - 20.1% (+1.6)
Greens - 5.9% (+0.6)

ONTARIO (six polls)

Liberals - 43.2% (+2.4)
Conservatives - 34.4% (-1.6)
New Democrats - 14.1% (+1.1)
Greens - 9.6% (+0.1)

QUEBEC (seven polls)

Bloc Quebecois - 37.5% (-1.2)
Liberals - 33.3% (+2.9)
Conservatives - 12.6% (-2.3)
New Democrats - 10.0% (-0.3)
Greens - 5.6% (+0.2)

ATLANTIC CANADA (five polls)

Liberals - 42.5% (+1.5)
Conservatives - 28.7% (-2.3)
New Democrats - 23.5% (+3.3)
Greens - 5.0% (-2.2)

These numbers show that the Liberals had the best polling month, followed by the NDP and the Greens. The Bloc and Conservatives both had difficulties. The Liberals' support grew in all six regions of the country, while the NDP increased its support in four regions, while decreasing in two. The Greens had gains in five regions and losses in one, while the Conservatives lost support in all six regions and the Bloc in Quebec.

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