Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Poll to Come: Harris-Decima

Harris-Decima released a poll today, but only partial information from various media outlets is available so far. I'll update once Harris-Decima puts the full details on their website. In the meantime, here are the national results:

Liberals - 34%
Conservatives - 29%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 11%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%

Good result for the Liberals, very bad result for the Conservatives, consistent (and not good) result for the NDP, and good result for the Greens. I look forward to seeing where that 11% has come from.

In Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 38%
Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 9%
Greens - 9%
New Democrats - 7%

Relatively decent result for the Bloc, great result for the Liberals, horrible results for the Conservatives and New Democrats, and strong result for the Greens.

In Ontario:

Liberals - 40%
Conservatives - 34%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 9%

Mostly consistent results here.

And British Columbia:

Conservatives - 32%
Liberals - 25%
New Democrats - 25%
Greens - 14%

Bad for the Conservatives, good for everyone else.

So, nothing here that would make Ignatieff shy away from his stance on EI. The Liberals look to be in a good spot to win an election. But, the NDP and the Bloc look to lose some, though it is difficult to see exactly how much the Bloc could potentially gain from the Tory collapse, so one wonders how enthused they must be about going into an election. With these numbers, the Conservatives should be trying to avoid an election. They would do well to prey on the NDP and Bloc fears in order to do that.

3 comments:

  1. Eric

    I think that CROP poll looks less and less optimistic for the Liberals, as successive polls now show a consistent mid 30's percentage. I remember a few weeks ago, when we started seeing the Conservatives down in the low teens, it was met with caution. Now, we see the first single digit percentage, which speaks to just how dire the situation. Quebecers are abandoning the Conservatives, now it's a case of lack of viability. These numbers aren't even credible and that shows that they've lost any perception of a realistic alternative. It's really an amazing flip.

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  2. It is, but the CROP poll had more of a low Bloc result than a high Liberal result.

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  3. Agreed. I should have specified, that I was focusing on the Liberals. It was that number that really struck me from CROP, and we've seen some confirmation since.

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