Wednesday, May 27, 2009

New Poll: CROP

CROP released a new poll today, taken between May 14 and May 24 in Quebec and involving 1,001 interviews. The federal results are as follows:

Bloc Quebecois - 36%
Liberals - 32%
Conservatives - 15%
New Democrats - 12%
Greens - 5%

This sort of makes the Léger Marketing poll earlier this week an outlier. This poll would translate into the following number of seats:

Bloc Quebecois - 48
Liberals - 21
Conservatives - 5
New Democrats - 1

The short-term projection has only changed slightly, reverting back to the 114 CPC, 128 LPC, and 48 BQ total. The long-term projection hasn't changed at all, with only a few tenths of a point being exchanged in Quebec. For that reason, I won't update the projection information on this site just yet. With the dearth of national polls this month, I imagine a few will be released in the next couple days anyway.

Unless a new poll is released tomorrow, however, I will update the CentVingtCinq projection.