Tuesday, May 26, 2009

New Poll: Ipsos-Reid

Ipsos-Reid released a new poll today, taken between May 20 and May 24 and including 1,000 interviews. I don't have the complete details yet, so for now I'll just report on what I have. The projection will be updated once I have the information.

I'm sure some of you look at the projection and some of the recent polls and wonder why the Conservatives still have the lead I give them. This latest poll demonstrates why it is better to react slowly to polling trends.

This poll was taken in an atmosphere of Conservative attack ads on Michael Ignatieff and the Mulroney inquiry. The national result:

Conservatives - 35%
Liberals - 33%
New Democrats - 14%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%
Greens - 8%

Compared to what we've seen recently, this is a strong result for the Tories. They've gained two points on the last Ipsos-Reid poll while the Liberals have lost three.

Regionally, we have the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals in Ontario, 39%-37%. This bucks all of the recent trends, as the Conservatives have been in the low-to-mid-30s, while the Liberals have been over 40%.

In Quebec, the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois are tied at 36%. This result confirms how close the race is between the two parties in Quebec. The Conservatives have 14% support in the province, which has been a consistent trend since December.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are at 39% with the Liberals and NDP fighting it out for second at 27% and 24%, respectively. This is directly in line with recent trends. We see the same thing in the Prairies, where the Tories have a strong lead (55%) while the Liberals and NDP struggle for second (20% and 21%). In Alberta, not surprising, the Conservatives are way ahead of the Liberals, 57% to 21%.

One of the most surprising results is in Atlantic Canada. That this could happen here, however, is not a surprise because of the small polling samples. But the race is a lot closer than we've seen it lately, with the Conservatives at 34% to the Liberal 36%. The NDP is in third at 24%.

Hopefully I will have the full details soon, and will update accordingly.