Saturday, May 2, 2009

New Polls: Nanos Research and Ipsos-Reid

Nanos Research and Ipsos-Reid both released polls today. The Nanos poll was taken between April 25 and April 30, while the Ipsos-Reid poll was taken on April 29 and April 30. Both polls included 1,001 interviews.

Here are the national results from the two polls, Nanos first and Ipsos-Reid second:

Liberals - 36% / 36%
Conservatives - 33% / 33%
New Democrats - 15% / 13%
Bloc Quebecois - 9% / 9%
Greens - 7% / 8%

Rarely do we see national polls from two polling firms so similar. There is a 3% margin of error in these two polls. A lot of the polling firms and the media usually use this to say that the two parties are in a "statistical tie". That is possible, but it also means that it is possible the 3-point lead between the two parties can turn into a 6-point lead.

Here are the Ontario results:

Liberals - 43% / 44%
Conservatives - 39% / 34%
New Democrats - 11% / 12%
Greens - 8% / 9%

Again, consistency. And this reverses the poll we saw last week that put the Conservatives on top in Ontario. Now Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 37% / 34%
Liberals - 36% / 32%
Conservatives - 11% / 14%
New Democrats - 11% / 11%
Greens - 5% / 9%

Less consistent, but the gap between the Bloc and the Liberals is similar. The poll also asked who would make the best Prime Minister:

Stephen Harper - 32% / 43%
Michael Ignatieff - 27% / 33%
Jack Layton - 13% / 23%

The "Last Poll" projection has been updated, using the Ipsos-Reid numbers as the polling period is more recent. The result, with the difference from the last poll in brackets:

Liberals - 137 seats (+28)
Conservatives - 111 seats (-14)
Bloc Quebecois - 46 seats (-5)
New Democrats - 14 seats (-9)

These two polls have moved the "Last 5 Poll" projection as well:

Liberals - 34.7% - 127 seats
Conservatives - 31.6% - 114 seats
Bloc Quebecois - 9.3% - 49 seats
New Democrats - 14.9% - 18 seats
Greens - 8.0% - 0 seats

In the long-term projection, the Conservatives have dropped one seat, in Ontario, to drop to 128 seats in all. The Liberals have also lost one seat, in British Columbia, to drop to 109. The Bloc remains steady, and the NDP benefits with a seat gain in British Columbia and Ontario, reaching 21 seats in all. The national popular vote has also changed:

Liberals +0.6
Bloc Quebecois +0.1
Greens (no change)
New Democrats -0.1
Conservatives -0.6

In Ontario, the NDP and the Liberals have increased their support by 0.2 points, while the Conservatives are down 0.5.

The Conservatives have strong results in Western Canada in both of these polls. The Liberals have strong results in Central and Eastern Canada. Both parties look to have strong bases, and the battlefield will be in Ontario. Quebec is a write-off for the Tories, as are the Atlantic provinces. The Liberals will struggle to win any seats west of Ontario. The NDP's results nationally are low, dangerously so. But they did have good regional results in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc needs to start looking over its shoulders at the Liberals, who are only a few points behind.

Things are starting to solidfy, it seems. The story lines for the next election already look written.

3 comments:

  1. Love this site. Just found it. any chance you can share a bit about yourself, just so I have a sense of the perspective you come from. I can't seem to see an "about" button on the site.

    If that's your preference, no problem. Just thought I'd ask.

    And again, love the site. It's the kind of site that exists for US elections, but we haven't had a good one for Canadian elections in some time.

    ReplyDelete
  2. There is an "About this Site" link on the right-hand side of the page, it has some information. I currently live in Ottawa. I have a BA in History and I'm a freelance writer.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Oh, and thanks for the praise!

    ReplyDelete

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