Thursday, May 21, 2009

New Projection

Now that Strategic Counsel has uploaded the details of their May 10th poll, I've updated the projection. Since the poll did not have results from every region, I can't determine what this single poll translates into for seats. But, the short term projection has been changed. First, the popular vote with the change from the last short-term projection in brackets:

Liberals - 34.8% (+0.6)
Conservatives - 31.6% (+0.2)
New Democrats - 14.8% (no change)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.2% (no change)
Greens - 8.6% (no change)

And now the short-term seat projection:

Liberals - 127 (-1)
Conservatives - 113 (-1)
Bloc Quebecois - 49 (+1)
New Democrats - 19 (+1)

The long-term projection has also changed. The national popular vote is now a virtual tie. Here is the growth in national popular vote from last time:

Greens +0.2
Liberals +0.1
Bloc Quebecois -0.1
Conservatives -0.2

The seat projection has changed, with the Conservatives and Liberals trading seats in Ontario. That brings the Conservatives down to 127 seats and the Liberals up to 110. Despite the close national result, the Conservatives are still strong enough regionally to maintain government, though at this point the second (Liberals) and fourth (NDP) parties would be able to outvote the Tories, translating to an Unstable Minority.