Tuesday, May 12, 2009

New Poll: Strategic Counsel

A new poll was released today by Strategic Counsel, taken between May 6 and May 10 and including 1,004 interviews. However, the details are not available from Strategic Counsel yet and the only information to be found is at the CTV and Globe and Mail websites. The information is virtually complete, I am just missing the NDP and Green results in Ontario. Until I have them, I won't be updating the projection. Nevertheless, here are the results:

CANADA

Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 30%
New Democrats - 16%
Greens - 11%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%

This is a good result for the Liberals, but within the margin we've seen recently. This is a bad result for the Conservatives, but also within recent trends. This is a good result for the NDP, as they have recently been on the up-swing and it is good for them to be moving farther away from the 14% or lower range. The Green result is also very good. Strong results from them is a bit of a recent trend.

QUEBEC

Bloc Quebecois - 39%
Liberals - 37%
Conservatives - 9%
New Democrats - 9%
Greens - 8%

Within the range of what we've seen lately: strong Liberal result, Conservatives out of the picture.

ONTARIO

Liberals - 42%
Conservatives - 32%

One of the wider gaps between the two parties that we've seen since the beginning of April.

WEST

Conservatives - 42%
Liberals - 25%
New Democrats - 19%
Greens - 15%

Of course, "the West" is not included in the projection model. So, the best I can do for context is compare it to the last SC poll. In the West, that puts the Conservatives down four points, the Liberals up one, the Greens up four and the NDP unchanged.

Hopefully I will have the necessary information to update the projection before the end of the day. Check back later!

6 comments:

  1. I smell an election! If these results hold steady for another week or so, then all 3 opposition parties will see advantage in going to the polls. Sure, it'll be relative advantage, but I do believe that there remains animosity towards the CPC, and getting rid of them will weigh heavily with the dippers. The cost to the Bloc of sustaining the CPC will be high in Quebec, so they'll go along. It's up to Layton. If he thinks he can showboat as the ONE who got rid of the dread Tory, then it's off to the polls we go, yet again.

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  2. Maybe I'm missing something, but I went digging for the poll to support a post I'm writing, and the numbers don't appear to match. Here's the link:

    http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2009-03-09%20-%20Vote%20Intention.pdf

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  3. That link brings me to a poll from March.

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  4. Oops! Wrong month entirely. Sorry about that.

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  5. Can you tell me why the "detail statistics" at the bottom are so small? I can barely read them!

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  6. Blogger is formatting them that way. I'll see what I can do with the next update.

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