Tuesday, May 26, 2009

New Projection: Ipsos-Reid

Thanks to the good people at Ipsos-Reid, I have the detailed polling information. You can check the charts at the bottom of the page as well as the previous post.

First, this single poll translates into the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 133
Liberals - 110
Bloc Quebecois - 47
New Democrats - 18

This would be a stable Conservative minority, thanks to 69 seats in the West and 51 in Ontario. The Liberals would have 89 of their seats in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

Second, the short-term, five-poll projection has changed. The popular vote change:

Liberals - 34.8% (unchanged)
Conservatives - 32.0% (+0.4)
New Democrats - 14.6% (-0.2)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.0% (-0.2)
Greens - 9.0% (+0.4)

The short-term seat projection has also changed:

Liberals - 128 (+1)
Conservatives - 114 (+1)
Bloc Quebecois - 48 (-1)
New Democrats - 18 (-1)

The one-poll and five-poll projections indicate that the Conservative slide might be over, at least for now. As Chantal Hébert stated on her blog, this is a "yellow light" to the Liberals.

The long-term seat projections have not changed overall, though the Conservatives have lost a seat in the North to the Liberals but gained one in Ontario. The national popular vote has changed as follows:

Conservatives +0.1
New Democrats -0.1
Greens -0.1

The Liberals and Bloc are unchanged. In Ontario and Quebec, the Conservatives have gained 0.1 in Ontario but lost 0.1 points in Quebec. The Liberals have lost 0.1 in Ontario but gained 0.2 in Quebec. The New Democrats are down 0.2 in Ontario and 0.1 in Quebec. The Bloc has lost 0.1 as well. The Greens are unchanged.

This poll is definitely something to worry about for the Liberals. The Tories aren't dead yet, and if another poll confirms the change I would have to strongly caution the Liberals against forcing an election. It also goes without saying that neither the Bloc nor the NDP have anything to gain - and lots to lose - in a new election.