Friday, July 22, 2011

Jason Kenney and the new Conservative base

Jason Kenney lands in Montreal today to discuss Canada’s immigration levels and how best to integrate new arrivals — a top-of-mind issue for one of the Conservative Party’s newest and most important constituencies.

The stop, part of a series of consultations, comes as Kenney redefines his relationship with this new segment of the Conservative base after three years of targeted outreach in his role as minister of citizenship and immigration.

In the 2008 election, new Canadians made up the majority of the population in only three of the Conservatives’ 143 ridings. The Liberals, despite winning almost half as many seats as the Tories nationally, took the lion’s share of seats with immigrant majorities.

On the eve of the 2011 federal election campaign the situation did not look much better for the Conservatives. 

An Abacus Data poll conducted at the end of March, just as the campaign was being launched, found that 38 per cent of immigrants intended to vote for the Liberals, 32 per cent for the Tories and 21 per cent for the New Democrats.

But when Canadians cast their ballots, the Conservatives increased their crop of ridings with immigrant majorities to 12. Almost half of the seats gained by the Tories throughout Canada had immigrant majorities. The NDP won only four seats with immigrant majority populations while the Liberals won five. 

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website.

It's too hot to add anything else.

I cracked yesterday and posted the individual riding projections for Ontario. You can find them in the right-hand column by clicking on the "Riding Projections" image.

I'll do the same for the other provinces as the models are completed, which should be within the next few weeks.


  1. It took me several seconds to figure out what your "too hot" comment meant.

  2. You really don't seem to be factoring in the federal election results in your projection. It might be a handy tool. For example, the same NDP candidate that nearly won in Bramalea-Gore-Malton is running for the NDP provincially. Sure, he may not win again (Andrea is not Jack), but he is sure to do better than you are suggesting. (My projection "model" suggests he will get 29% there.)

    Alternatively, you show the NDP winning in a landslide in Welland. Much of Peter Kormos' vote was his alone. The federal election proved that this is not a "safe NDP" seat, rather it is a 3-way bellwether. I have the NDP losing this seat by 3 points at this point.

    Also, you have the Tories at 57% in Nipissing. I'm sorry, but that is ridiculous. Yes, they are sure to win the seat, but the party has no recent history of being that conservative. I have them at 45% there.

    Also, I suspect the Tories are doing better in Northern Ontario. Remember that one poll that had them winning the region? I know their definition probably included Peterborough and Barrie, which skewed things, but the area is trending to the right (and the left, i.e. away from the Liberals) lately.

  3. That poll also included about 48 people from northern Ontario, for a margin of error of +/- 14%.

    As for the specific ridings, we shall see.

  4. Heat ? This has to be one of the coldest and most rainy summers on record in BC !

    I think what your projections need is some local intel.

    Tweak stuff. If something doesn't look right change it. Factor in all sorts of things.

    Politics isn't math.

    I guess the problem would be your knowledge about each race.

    Maybe people should stop complaining then and view this model as a STARTING POINT and not some kind of holy oracle that has to say the exactly right thing.

    Build off it with your local knowledge ppl!

  5. Anonymous 16:08,

    What you're suggesting is to make predictions, not projections. The Election Prediction Project already exists for that.

    This site uses a mathematical model that is applied uniformly and objectively.

  6. I find this whole discussion of how the "immigrant vote" went to be very simplistic. Immigrant can mean anything from an 80 year old refugee from Polish communism who came to Canada in 1946 - to a Tamil fleeing persecution in Sri Lanka 5 years ago to someone from Hong Kong who had millions to invest in the early 90s. Apparently exit polls indicate that the Conservatives won a plurality among long-time immigrants who had been in Canada more than 10 years, but the NDP won among more recent immigrants among people who are "visible minorities".

  7. You can still factor in local issues when doing projections. Especially considering how popular this site is with the media... if you have some faulty projection somewhere, you could lead people astray.

  8. Local factors are taken into account when they can be mathematically shown to be of some significance.

    Subjective gut-tweaks are not included. Again, that would just be a guess and there are plenty of places for people to get educated guesses.

  9. At the end of the day, it shows that few immigrants vote as a block. It also shows that immigrants, even relatively recent ones, are now part of the mainstream and voting according to their own views and concerns. All in all, a good development for Canada and all Canadians.
    - From a New-ish Canadian :)


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