Wednesday, July 20, 2011

PCs form majority in first Ontario projection

The Ontario projection model is now fully up and running, and is projecting both the popular vote and seat wins for the 2011 provincial election. The first Ontario projection for ThreeHundredEight is a Progressive Conservative majority - by a wide margin.
With the aggregation of all available polls, ThreeHundredEight projects that the Progressive Conservatives hold the support of 41.3% of Ontarians, leading the governing Liberals by 10.1 points. Dalton McGuinty's party has the projected support of 31.2% of the province.

The New Democrats stand in third with 19.9%, while the Ontario Greens are at 6.3% support.

This delivers Tim Hudak a majority government of 61 seats in the 107-seat legislature. The Liberals win 28 seats and form the Official Opposition, while the New Democrats win 18 seats.

This projection envisions the Liberals losing 42 of the 70 seats they currently hold, with the PCs gaining 36 and the New Democrats eight.
Regionally, the Progressive Conservatives would win the majority of seats in every part of the province except in Toronto and northern Ontario.

In Ottawa and eastern Ontario, the PCs win nine seats, the Liberals four, and the NDP one.

In central Ontario, the PCs win 10 seats and the Liberals one.

The Greater Toronto area delivers 13 seats to the PCs and five to the Liberals, while Toronto itself elects nine Liberal MPPs, seven PCs, and six New Democrats.

In the Hamilton and Niagara regions the Progressive Conservatives win six seats and the NDP four, while in southwestern Ontario the PCs double up on the Liberals with 14 seats to seven.

Finally, in northern Ontario the New Democrats win seven seats, the PCs two, and the Liberals one.

Until the final list of candidates is made public by Elections Ontario, which should take place mid-way through the campaign, ThreeHundredEight will not be presenting individual riding projections. However, I am more than happy to answer any specific riding questions in the comments section below, and will give more information on which seats have swapped hands in future projection updates. Updates to the projection will be made whenever new polls are available. Until the campaign begins, polls are aged on a monthly basis. The links to the right explain the projection methodology in detail.

Update: After so many requests for individual riding projections, I have decided to include them after all. They can now be found in the right-hand column.

37 comments:

  1. Any comments on Kitchener-Centre and Kitchener-Waterloo?

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  2. In Kitchener Centre, I have the Liberals at 36%, the PCs at 34%, and the NDP at 21%.

    In Kitchener-Waterloo, I have the PCs at 50%, the Liberals at 22%, and the NDP at 20%.

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  3. Great Job Eric! Former Montrealer checking in from New York City.

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  4. Allo Eric,

    I know there is no candidate for the PCs yet in Ottawa-Orleans, but what are the numbers like there? Thanks!

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  5. I'm interested in Toronto Centre and Davenport.

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  6. Any comments on London Riding's ?

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  7. Comments on the 3rd riding in Kitchener. Kitchener conestoga

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  8. What Liberal Cabinet Ministers do you project losing their seat?

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  9. Jonathan P-C,

    In Ottawa-Orleans, I have the PCs at 46%, the Liberals at 40%, and the NDP at 8%.

    TS,

    In Davenport, I have the NDP at 46%, the Liberals at 30%, and the PCs at 13%.

    In Toronto Centre, I have the Liberals at 43%, the NDP at 28%, and the PCs at 21%.

    Anonymous 12:17,

    I have the Liberals retaining London North Centre and London West, but the PCs taking London-Fanshawe. The NDP is second in that riding.

    Anonymous 12:51,

    I don't have a full list of cabinet ministers handy to check against, but among others I have Linda Jeffrey, Sophia Aggelonitis, Carol Mitchell, Charles Sousa, Bob Chiarelli, John Wilkinson, Margerett Best, and Michael Gravelle losing.

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  10. Any word on specific ridings in northwestern Ontario?

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  11. Hi, Eric

    Based on the recent by-election for Toronto that had Glen Murray (L) at 47, the NDP at 33, and the PCs at 15, and given the swing to the NDP in downtown Toronto apparent in the Davenport numbers, how do you get the NDP declining by 5 points in that race? Note also the trend away from the Liberals and towards the NDP in Rae's federal version of the same seat. Or do you just weight the by-election numbers much less than the general election numbers?

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  12. Eric. Great job putting this together. What breakdown do you have for the ridings of Cambridge an Kitchener Conestoga

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  13. Nicholas,

    I have the NDP winning both Thunder Bay ridings and Kenora-Rainy River has a big NDP majority.

    Anonymous 14:34,

    By-elections have 50% weighting in the projection, so the 2007 result (18.8% for the NDP) is also taken into account in Toronto Centre.

    Anonymous 15:10,

    In Cambridge, I have the PCs at 50%, the Liberals at 26%, and the NDP at 16%.

    In Kitchener-Conestoga, I have the PCs at 47%, the Liberals at 32%, and the NDP at 13%.

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  14. Boy, the Tea Party really HAS spilled north of the border. For the first time that I can remember in Toronto, the municipal, provincial and federal governments will ALL be controlled by conservatives, and it will last at least until late 2014 when Toronto's due for an election.

    What does the model show for York Centre?

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  15. Esn,

    Close one - 42% for the PCs, 39% for the Liberals.

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  16. What do you have for the Windsor Essex region?
    ie. Windsor-West; Windsor-Tecumseh; Essex.

    Are there larger swings in Windsor-West and Essex (due to Liberal incumbents leaving), then in Windsor-Tecumseh (Liberal Minister of Finance, running for re-election)?

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  17. Anonymous 16:28,

    Yes, the departure of incumbents is a major factor in the projections.

    In Windsor-Tecumseh, I have the Liberals at 40%, the NDP at 29%, and the PCs at 22.

    In Windsor West, I have the Liberals at 36%, the NDP at 33%, and the PCs at 24%.

    In Essex, I have the PCs at 35%, the Liberals at 34%, and the NDP at 26%.

    Good three-way races there.

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  18. I'm curious about my home riding, Hamilton Mountain. I see that you're projecting Aggelonitis to lose (presumably to the NDP), but by how much? Awesome work by the way, thanks for putting all the effort into this stuff.

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  19. Seems with all of these requests I should just include the individual projections next time...

    Tyler,

    In Hamilton Mountain, I have the NDP at 38%, the PCs at 30%, and the Liberals at 27%.

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  20. Very interesting analysis. Have you ever thought about presenting a supplementary table showing how many seats each party is leading in by 5 points or less (a close lead); 5 to 10 points (a moderate lead); and, 10 or more points (a safe lead)?

    Also, a sensitivity analysis? For example, what would be the change in seat counts with a 2 point swing in popular vote between the PCs and Liberals; the PCs and NDP; and, the Liberals and NDP.

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  21. can you give the projected winners/margins for the Hamilton ridings? I'm assuming NDP in all but ADFW, where SKelley will beat McMeekin? (interestingly, this would align the city with the federal results of the past few elections).

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  22. I suspect Margaret Best's seat would be picked by the Tories? Any idea about Scarborough rouge river?

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  23. Bryan,

    For Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, I have the PCs at 44%, the Liberals at 32%, and the NDP at 16%.

    For Hamilton Centre, I have the NDP at 51%, the Liberals at 21%, and the PCs at 19%.

    For Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, I have the NDP at 44%, the PCs at 27%, and the Liberals at 25%.

    Hamilton Mountain was described above.

    Anonymous 17:53,

    Yes, the Tories take Scarborough-Guildwood. For Scarborough-Rouge River, I have the Liberals at 56%, the PCs at 20%, and the NDP at 17%.

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  24. Scarborough-Rouge River is a good example of the limitations of trying to project individual seats using these models. In the federal election the NDP swing there was so massive and so totally disproportionate to what happened anywhere else (ie: NDP support tripled from 14% to over 40%!) that no model would ever have predicted it.

    I actually think that its just asking for trouble to try to extrapolate what will happen in individual seats - and stick to giving aggregate estimates.

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  25. Ajax-Pickering is my riding. It was a fun one to watch in May. It's usually a safe Liberal seat, but that was trumped this year. I'm going to say that the Liberals hold on to this provincial seat - MPP Joe Dickson is a high-profile candidate locally. What do you project for Ajax-Pickering?

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  26. I really like the suggestions of Anonymous at 16:57--though I imagine that the time involved in making such a detailed model might be prohibitive.

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  27. DL,

    No model will be 100% accurate.

    Jon Wiseman,

    In Ajax-Pickering, I have the PCs at 45%, the Liberals at 39%, and the NDP at 10%.

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  28. I really like how you've got all of this set up. Good suggestion too, avioding all of these questions by adding in riding specific projections. I'd love to see how my riding (Thunder Bay - Rainy River) will trend as we come closer to the election, I do believe that the NDP will take it anyhow, with the Liberals not doing very well anymore and with the NDP a very close second last election.

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  29. Hi Eric,

    I'm interested in which five Greater Toronto seats remain Liberal. I'm assuming Vaughan and Markham-Unionville are two of them.

    With current trends, I think the Ontario Liberals may actually be satisfied with winning 28 seats and forming the official opposition. It will be more hard for the party to make a comeback if they fall into third place.

    - Maple

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  30. Any thoughts on Peterborough?

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  31. Hey Eric,

    What are the numbers on Willowdale, Don Valley West, Don Valley East, Whitby-Oshawa and Prince-Edward Hastings? Sorry if there are too many.

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  32. OK, so a majority in Ontario is 54 seats (maybe 55 given the need to name a speaker) and according to your model, the Tories have a 10 point lead over the Liberals they will have 61 seats - about 6-7 seats above what they need. I'd like to know if you're experimented with different popular vote spreads (let's for time being assume NDP at 20-22%) to see where the tipping point is? How much of a popular vote lead do the Tories need to get over the 55 seat mark? Is it 8 points? 6 points?

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  33. Maple,

    The five Liberal GTA seats are Vaughan, Markham-Unionville, Mississauga-Streetsville, Mississauga East-Cooksville and Mississauga-Brampton South.

    Anonymous 1:38,

    In Peterborough, I have the Liberals at 38%, the PCs at 34%, and the NDP at 20%.

    Anonymous 2:04,

    In Willowdale, I have the PCs at 45%, the Liberals at 38%, and the NDP at 10%.

    In Don Valley West, I have the PCs at 51%, the Liberals at 40%, and the NDP at 5%.

    In Don Valley East, I have the Liberals at 41%, the PCs at 37%, and the NDP at 14%.

    In Whitby-Oshawa, I have the PCs at 54%, the Liberals at 26%, and the NDP at 13%.

    In Prince-Edward Hastings, I have the PCs at 42%, the Liberals at 36%, and the NDP at 16%.

    DL,

    I'll take a look at that.

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  34. Hi Eric;

    What is your projection for Beaches-East York in this election? My sense is that the Liberals will be relegated to third place there, with the New Democrats extending their margin slightly, this time over the Conservatives' Meganety.

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  35. I have the NDP at 50%, the PCs at 20%, and the Liberals at 19%.

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  36. Can you give me projections for all Brampton and Mississauga ridings?

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  37. I've relented and posted the riding projections. They are in the right-hand column, under "Riding Projections" underneath the Saskatchewan projection.

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