Monday, July 18, 2011

The political honeymoon and the NDP in Quebec

To some a honeymoon means the excitement of something new and the knowledge a great and long-lasting relationship is just beginning. To the Prime Minister, it is something to be regretted and forgotten as soon as the formerly happy couple realizes what a horrible mistake they have made – at least when that honeymoon is with the NDP. 

You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website here.

I read somewhere that the New Democrats should beware, as Quebecers have proven before how fickle they can be when it comes to federal politics. The Progressive Conservatives dominated the province in two elections before being reduced to virtually nothing, while the Bloc's experience in the province ended with an unmitigated disaster.

However, both of these scenarios should be just fine for the NDP. On the one hand, if Jack Layton's honeymoon with Quebec lasts as long as Brian Mulroney's, meaning the NDP will still win the majority of seats in the province in 2015 but could be turfed in 2019, that still gives the NDP one more election to form a government. If the New Democrats can retain 55+ seats in Quebec, the gains they need to make in the rest of the country become manageable. And once the NDP forms government, anything goes.

On the other hand, a "honeymoon" that lasts as long as it did with the Bloc would please any federal leader. Though it would end in catastrophe, the NDP would still be the master of the province for the better part of two decades, until about 2029. I'm pretty sure the NDP would gladly take such a "honeymoon".

On an unrelated note, the vote and seat projection model for Ontario is completed. I'll be updating the site with running projections of both the popular vote and the seats later this week.