Wednesday, July 6, 2011

June 2011 Federal Polling Averages

Two national polls by Nanos Research and Abacus Data and two Quebec polls by Léger Marketing and CROP were conducted during the month of June. There was little change in the voting intentions of Canadians since May, but the Conservatives are experiencing a slight uptick in this past month's weighted polling average.

Nationally, the Conservatives were up 1.4 points to 41.3% in June, extending their lead over the New Democrats to 11.6 points.

The NDP is down 1.8 points to 29.7%, while the Liberals are up 0.9 points since May to 19.5%.

The Bloc Québécois stands at 4.7% nationally, while the Greens are down 0.7 points to 4.2%.

The polls are weighted by their relative margin of error.

The Conservatives have dropped a bare 0.8 points in Ontario, and lead in the province with 43.7%. The Liberals have re-taken second spot in Ontario with a 5.3-point gain. They now have the support of 28.3% of Ontarians, compared to 23.7% for the NDP (down 4.1 points).

In Quebec, the New Democrats have gained 5.5 points and now lead with an incredible 46.7%, well ahead of the Bloc Québécois. They have gained 2.3 points and stood at 19.1% in June. The Conservatives, down 1.5 points to 18.8%, stand third while the Liberals have dropped 3.8 points to only 12.6% in Quebec.

The Conservatives lead in British Columbia with 48.3%, a gain of 5.4 points since May. The New Democrats are down 3.1 points to 30.7% in the province.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have decreased 3.7 points but still lead with 61.3%. The New Democrats are second with 21%.

The Conservatives also lead in the Prairies with 50.1%, while the NDP stands at 31.2%. The Liberals are up 4.3 points to 15.3% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives lead with 35.6%, followed closely by the NDP at 32.7%. That is a four point gain for the New Democrats on the east coast.

With these June averages, the Conservatives win 162 seats: 26 in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 62 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, and 16 in Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats win 102 seats: seven in British Columbia, one in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 19 in Ontario, 62 in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win two seats in British Columbia, two in the Prairies, 25 in Ontario, three in Quebec, and nine in Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc Québécois is reduced to two seats in Quebec, while the Greens retain their toehold in British Columbia.

The tracking chart, stretching back to January 2009, shows a continued improvement in NDP performance in Quebec, Alberta, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada. It also shows how the Liberals and Bloc continue to slide in Quebec, while the Conservatives are holding relatively steady throughout the country.

11 comments:

  1. More like end of minority government uncertainties.
    4 elections in less than a decade can be exhausting for Canada.
    EF from TO.

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  2. I don't think there will be any significant federal poll changes till early next year. But there is potential for a lot of movement across the polls.

    In the May 2nd election, many Canadians voted for a party that they may usually not vote for. Whether, its suburban non-White Canadians voting Conservative in B.C. and Ontario or Quebeckers going en masse to the NDP, time will tell whether this movement will be permanent.

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  3. EF from TO.

    Then why post as Anonymous !!

    Eric this nonsense has to stop !! Nobody knows who they are talking to !!

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  4. Éric, do you have Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour as one of the holds for the Bloc? It must be really close, given the 2.7% margin of victory on May 2.

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  5. The next election could be just as topsy turvy as this one was.

    Who knows maybe Liberals could make a come back and defeat King Harper.

    -Edward

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  6. Felix,

    Until the new, post-2011 model is up and running I can't say exactly which seat it would be.

    But personally I would say the two seats are the Haute-Gaspésie and probably the Bas-Richelieu, especially if Plamondon sticks around.

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  7. Peter thanks for sharing the good news!

    For partisan Liberals like you and I its great that the media well finally stop giving the NDP a free ride.

    Yes it'll probably take two elections to return us to power.

    Unfortunately that means another term for King Harper. But what choice do we have ! I'm just as uncomfortable with Jack Layton as PM.

    Our best hope will be a coalition government after the next election. All Liberals need to work towards that !

    -Edward

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  8. Hey Edward

    Why not just post as Edward??

    This use of Anonymous is just plain ridiculous !!

    Don't ever discount Jack Layton !!

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  9. What Edward did, signing his comment, is perfectly acceptable.

    ReplyDelete

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