Friday, July 8, 2011

Why Dalton McGuinty is worse off now than four years ago

Ontario and Manitoba are setting up for some closely contested elections in October.

But the last elections in the two provinces in 2007 were also supposed to go down to the wire, and in the end the incumbent governments beat their rivals by 10 points. Will the same thing happen in the fall?

Four months prior to the October 2007 election in Ontario, two polls by Ipsos-Reid and Environics indicated a neck-and-neck race between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives, with about 40 per cent of Ontarians intending to vote for the governing Liberals and about 38 per cent expecting to vote for John Tory’s PCs.

But on election night, the Liberals bumped up their support to 42 per cent while that of the Progressive Conservatives tanked to only 32 per cent. Part of that swing was attributed to Tory’s disastrous campaign pledge to extend public funding to faith-based schools, a promise he had to back away from amid widespread opposition.

This election may be different. In order for Dalton McGuinty to win his third election, he will need an even more dramatic shift in support during the campaign.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website.

The four elections in Manitoba, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador are only three months away. The campaigns will start in two. So, while we are in dog days of summer in terms of polling and politics, things will rachet up very soon. I'm still working on getting the new models up and running for the provinces, and then once those four elections are completed the Saskatchewan campaign will be starting up. It should be an interesting two months.


  1. I don't envy you. Your workload in September and October is going to be staggering.

  2. So far I'd say Hudak is shooting himself in the foot.

    His attack ads target only McGuinty as the "Taxman" and ignore the rest of the Liberal party.

    Why?? Just as a scenario the campaign starts in Sept. McGuinty steps aside, Hudak is shafted royally and his wasted advertising money is twisted by the Libs to be Hudak's entire economic policy !!

    Byee !!

  3. AverageCanuck09 July, 2011 12:43

    Peter that strategy is bunk.

    About 14 or so Liberals have already stepped aside ! Anymore and the "rats fleeing a sinking ship" mantra will be written in stone.

    It would be an NDP vs PC fight like the last federal election if McGuinty did that !

    Plus polls show him doing better than any other possible leadership contender. He's the only thing they got.

    Next premier of Ontario = Tim Hudak.

    Ford, Hudak, Harper - the trifecta of conservative dominance in a once red province.

  4. Actually Ontario had a long period as a blue province; 40 years roughly. Remember the big blue machine? Though the PCs during this time were more left-leaning. Besides the campaign has not even started yet so anything can happen

  5. I think it will be a Conservative minority government propped up by the Liberals in exchange for nothing and just as happened federally this will lead to the slow death of the Ontario Liberal party and its replacement by the NDP.

  6. AC You are bunk, not me !!

    "Part of that swing was attributed to Tory’s disastrous campaign pledge to extend public funding to faith-based schools,"

    And guess what's surfaced again ?? Religion in the public school system via some idiocy from amongst others Angello Perschilli a well know Tory supporter and columnist.

    It won't work this time either !!

  7. AverageCanuck11 July, 2011 14:15

    Peter aren't you guys always blaming Harris for the tragic deaths in Walkerton ?

    How do you think people are going to react to the fact that public hospitals are killing people ??

    By your logic that's on McGuinty !

    We want RESULTS. NO more of this bunk.

  8. AverageCanuck, why do you think that the PCs will be any better? Alright lets say that both Mike Harris and Dalton McGuinty are guilty of being incompetent with healthcare. Does condemning one and condoning the other make a lot of sense? No party is perfect, and by going back to PC we will go back/continue with the same problems. The NDP was not perfect either. Once in power parties seem to let things slide and become power hungry, unfortunately


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