Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Conservatives lead by nine in new Abacus poll

Two months in and Canadians have no regrets about how they voted in the last federal election.

According to the latest polling results from Abacus Data, the voting intentions of Canadians have changed very little since the vote was last held on May 2nd. 

The poll, conducted between June 23 and 24, found that the Conservatives stand at 41 per cent support, virtually unchanged from the election and Abacus’s last poll held in mid-May.

The New Democrats are also holding steady at 32 per cent support.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website.

My article for The Huffington Post is the first reporting on this poll conducted by Abacus Data. It doesn't show much change, but what is interesting is some of the demographic breakdowns that were provided to me. Check out the article to see what I'm talking about.

In the meantime, how about a seat projection for this poll? Update: A typo, giving the Liberals 17.3% in British Columbia rather than 7.3%, that was input into the seat projection model has been fixed.

With this poll, ThreeHundredEight projects a Conservative majority of 171 seats, with the Official Opposition being formed by the New Democrats at 103 seats.

The Liberals win 28 seats and the Bloc Québécois wins six seats.

The Conservatives win 29 seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 67 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, and 15 in Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats win seven seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 22 in Ontario, 58 in Quebec, and eight in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win two seats in the Prairies, 17 in Ontario, and nine in Atlantic Canada.

This poll completely shoves the Liberals out of Quebec (along with BC). It's a door the Bloc uses to win a couple more seats. But it is a much better poll for the Tories in the province, as though they are still in third behind the Bloc they nevertheless take 22.4% of the vote.

Note that the projection model being used is a mix of the new model for 2015 and the old model for 2011. I'm still working on updating the projection model with all of the results from the last election.


  1. How do you get the Liberals GAING a seat in BC from 2 to 3 when this Abacus poll has Liberals support in BC at SEVEN PERCENT - down from the already rock bottom 13% they got on election day. That should mean zero Liberal seats in BC.

  2. I mistakenly put the Liberals at 17.3% in my model, rather than 7.3%. I will fix.

  3. So, the Greens lose their seat? And does the BQ gain from the NDP. It seems like from your article, they're gaining from the Liberals... but I don't think there are any Liberal-Bloc marginals.

  4. Yes, the Greens lose their seat. Their party is down in BC, Conservatives are way up.

    The Quebec projections are still using the 2011 model, so it isn't as precise. But with this kind of movement we're likely looking at the Bloc retaining their four seats and gaining two at the expense of the NDP, who are down slightly. The Tories win a few back from the NDP around Quebec, while the NDP wins some from the Liberals in Montreal.

  5. I don't know about the rest of you but like Earl I'm getting severely fed up with this "Anonymous" nonsense. It's impossible to have any kind of conversation with multiple unknown people.

    Is there a solution?? Yes there is but it depends on Eric.

    He moderates and passes on everything posted here. All he has to do is on the Front Page put a notice that posts by Anonymous won't be put up !!

    A couple of days will get the message across and we will be back to the ability to do one on one conversations.

  6. Where would the NDP pick up a second seat in Alberta?

  7. Edmonton East. The Conservatives had 53% in the riding compared to 37% for the NDP in this year's election, but with the NDP going from 17% to 24% (according to the poll) in the province and the Conservatives going from 67% to 59%, the riding switches over to the NDP.

  8. Would one of those Bloc gains be Ruth-Ellen Brosseau's seat in Berthier-Maskinonge, by any chance? And where would the other gain be?

  9. Since I'm using the model based on the 2008 election for Quebec, I can't say exactly. Until the results from 2011 are input into the model, the projection is more of an abstract guide.

    Recall that with the correct vote results for the entire province, the 2008 model would've projected 60 NDP, 6 CPC, 5 LPC, and 4 BQ seats (instead of the actual 59/5/7/4), so I'd say that the overall numbers are reliable.

    More likely the seats would be Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote-Nord, Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, or Vercheres-Les-Patriotes, all close BQ/NDP contests.

  10. Vercheres actually wasn't that close - the NDP won there by 4,000 votes. In Berthier-Maskinonge, despite a week's worth of front page tabloid stories about the BQ attacking Ruth-Ellen Brosseau for being anglophone and for going to Las Vegas for a weekend - she actually won by 8,000 votes - it wasn't even close! People there knew exactly what they were voting for and I'll bet she gets re-elected in 2015 by 15,000 votes.

  11. You should modify your model to include the new seats as of 2015 due to redistribution. I believe the bill going through the House right now will boost the total number to 338.

  12. I wouldn't be so sure of that, DL. Quebecers might be as quick to shed the NDP as they did the Bloc.

    Top Can,

    Until the seats exist, I will be projecting for a 308-seat House of Commons. It is impossible project outcomes in ridings that don't yet exist, since the boundaries are unknown.

  13. Anything is possible in the next election - but I think that Ruth-Ellen Brosseau is already emerging as a bit of a folk hero in her riding and rather than being a weak link I think she may prove to be one of the stronger incumbents in 2015.


COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.