Monday, July 30, 2012

Ridings to watch in upcoming Quebec election

Aside from a few ridings on the West Island of Montreal, there are few parts of the province where a party can truly be said to be safe. The Liberals are down about ten points from where they were in the 2008 election, the PQ is down a couple, the CAQ is polling above the ADQ's support and may pull in a slightly different profile of voters, and Québec Solidaire stands to double its vote, if not more.

In other words, almost every riding in Quebec is one to watch. But there are a few that look to be more interesting than others. You can check out my list of ridings to watch at The Globe and Mail website here.

There are a lot of PQ-Liberal contests that look like they will be very close, and it is there that the election may be decided. But the CAQ is also a factor in several places, and could play the spoiler in several others. It should be a very interesting campaign, if it finally gets going on Wednesday.

Also upcoming is the federal Green Party's biennial policy convention in August. With a recent EKOS poll putting the party at 10%, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at the Greens, where they stand, where they could make gains, and whether these sorts of polling numbers are realistic. That's the topic of this month's column for The Hill Times, which can be found here. A subscription is needed to read it, but a subscription to The Hill Times is well worth it.

Hopefully some new polls will be released this week, as we are in a bit of a drought. If the Quebec election is indeed called for September 4, with the campaign starting Wednesday, I think the drought could turn into a deluge.


  1. I see that low and high ranges for QS are both 2 seats. Is Françoise David really a lock to win Gouin?
    The PQ can't be happy about that.

    1. They won the two east-end ridings with pretty high margins.

      The PQ is targeting the Montreal suburbs. That's where this election will be won or lost.

  2. Elections often feature unexpected events.

    Assuming QS makes a breakthrough are there any other ridings they could win ? Irregardless of who's a no name candidate.

    Lol remember the NDP's coat tails got a judo instructor to beat a sitting cabinet minister in the last election or something like that.

  3. This one will feature many surprises. The Quebec electorate is volatile. I think someone will eventually pull away in the end and we'll get a majority. It appears to me that Legault will have the most to gain in the election if eh can show the party is ready to govern.

    The QS is the biggest threat in the East End of Montreal, although they stand to play spoiler for the PQ in any riding. If I were Legault and Charest, I'd want to get Khadir involved in the leaders debate.

  4. Salut Éric, long time visitor.
    I'm a resident of Jacques-Cartier, a PLQ stronghold. Any thoughts on gains the Greens can make in the riding?

    1. I think the Greens are very likely to finish second in that riding. We saw this sort of thing in 2008 where the Greens were the only palatable alternative to the Liberals for anglophones.

      Maybe the CAQ will manage to eat up some of that vote, but I think with Legault at the helm his growth potential among anglophones is rather low.

      With the Liberals getting a little long in the tooth and corruption allegations in the air, I can see the Greens doing even better on the West Island. I don't think that have a hope of winning a seat, though, unless something extraordinary happens during the campaign.

  5. the CAQ had months of opportunity to take advantage of the current political climate but have failed to punch through, I completely don't understand, the door was wide open.


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