Monday, July 30, 2012

Ridings to watch in upcoming Quebec election

Aside from a few ridings on the West Island of Montreal, there are few parts of the province where a party can truly be said to be safe. The Liberals are down about ten points from where they were in the 2008 election, the PQ is down a couple, the CAQ is polling above the ADQ's support and may pull in a slightly different profile of voters, and Québec Solidaire stands to double its vote, if not more.

In other words, almost every riding in Quebec is one to watch. But there are a few that look to be more interesting than others. You can check out my list of ridings to watch at The Globe and Mail website here.

There are a lot of PQ-Liberal contests that look like they will be very close, and it is there that the election may be decided. But the CAQ is also a factor in several places, and could play the spoiler in several others. It should be a very interesting campaign, if it finally gets going on Wednesday.

Also upcoming is the federal Green Party's biennial policy convention in August. With a recent EKOS poll putting the party at 10%, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at the Greens, where they stand, where they could make gains, and whether these sorts of polling numbers are realistic. That's the topic of this month's column for The Hill Times, which can be found here. A subscription is needed to read it, but a subscription to The Hill Times is well worth it.

Hopefully some new polls will be released this week, as we are in a bit of a drought. If the Quebec election is indeed called for September 4, with the campaign starting Wednesday, I think the drought could turn into a deluge.