Tuesday, April 23, 2013

35 years of polling

There was a flurry of polls released just prior to Justin Trudeau's leadership victory last Sunday, but since he took over it has been virtual silence. Forum ventured out with a post-announcement poll that, putting the Liberals at 43%, has to be considered on the high side. Unfortunately, no other pollster has waded into the pool since then, so we don't know if Trudeau was indeed giving the Liberals that much of a boost.

So if we can't find any recent polls, let's find some really old polls.

When I was poking around the various public opinion poll archives that exist, I came across a table that compiled all of the voting intentions polling from Environics stretching back to 1978. I used the data for my article today for The Globe and Mail looking at leadership boosts. Check it out.

But let's take a look at this polling from Environics stretching back 35 years. Note that I calculated the share of decideds only in the chart below, corrected what appeared to be a few transcription errors in the chart, and used my own monthly averages after 2010. The chart is not calibrated to give equal space to equal time, but it is close enough.
Environics federal polling, 1978-2010 (Click to magnify)
And there you see the vagaries of public opinion over a handful of decades.

What is most striking about these numbers to me is that the political landscape of the 1990s and 2000s that we have come to consider as the norm in Canada were actually pretty anomalous. The race was a close three-way race for much of the 1980s and the very early 1990s, making the current situation more reminiscent of those days than anything particularly new.

Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the Liberals were way ahead of the pack. They weren't Canada's dominant party only because of a split of the vote on the right, either. The very pale blue line combines the support of the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform/Canadian Alliance parties throughout that period, and only at the end of 1993 before the PCs bottomed out was the combined support for these parties anywhere close to where the Liberals were (true, the race was closer during elections but outside of them the Liberals were coasting).

It is interesting to see that the recent surge in NDP support is nothing that this country has not seen before. The New Democrats were routinely polling above 20% in 1981-1982 and continuously between 1985 and 1992 - a very long period of time politically. The New Democrats were second in the country, or at least tied for it, for a brief time in 1982 and then from around 1986 to 1992, when the New Democrats were leading nationally in a few individual polls in 1987, 1990, and 1991.

The chart does suggest, however, that opinion was much more fluid in the 1980s than it was throughout most of the period starting in the 1990s and since. In a relatively short period of time the Liberals or PCs would surge or drop 10 to 20 points or more. The Tories were under 30% at the end of 1979, and then rose all the way to over 50% by 1983, while the Liberals were at 50% in 1980 before slipping to 20% by 1984.

It demonstrates how every party has had its day in the sun and its catastrophic drops.

The New Democrats were gaining consistently after 1984 until they moved into first in 1987, while they dropped from first in 1991 to fifth and under 10% in 1993. They slowly gained from then until their boost in 2011.

The Liberals were up-and-down under Pierre Trudeau and then John Turner, before gaining again under Jean Chrétien and dropping under Paul Martin. Much of the damage was done at that point of time, it seems, in large part due to the Gomery Inquiry. Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff could only give the party fleeting blips of support before dropping again.

And then there are the Tories, struggling before Brian Mulroney became leader, struggling again just before his first mandate was over, and then dropping like a stone shortly after his 1988 election victory as the Reform Party ate into their support. The Progressive Conservatives in the 1990s they were vying for runner-up status in the mid-teens with the Bloc Québécois, New Democrats, and the Reform/Canadian Alliance parties. The Canadian Alliance took off a little when Stockwell Day was named leader, but they never really challenged the Liberals.

Only after the merger of the parties did the Conservatives become competitive, and by 2006 they were leading in national voting intentions, something they have not yet given up for any long period of time. But their recent polling is among their worst as a united party. The last time they dropped this low was around the time that Reform and the Bloc started pulling their coalition apart.

I think this chart shows how difficult it is to predict anything beyond a few months into the future with any accuracy. The creation of the Bloc, and then its destruction at the hands of the NDP, was unexpected. That the Liberals would poll well over 40% and easily lead a crowd of small parties for a decade could hardly have been seen in the days when the New Democrats were pushing the Liberals into third in the late 1980s. That the Progressive Conservatives would be reduced to two seats within a decade of polling at almost 60%, and that they would eventually be taken over by a Western protest party, would have seemed like some fantastical alternative history.

So how might Justin Trudeau do in 2015? A better question, considering the peaks and valleys of this chart, might just be how he will do next month. And then we'll see.

10 comments:

  1. Most important thing I'm seeing in this chart is that campaigns matter. Parties can coast between elections, and polls will go up an down, but in a month of intense campaigning, expect dramatic shifts in the numbers from day to day. Everything that comes before is prologue. What will really matter will be the 4 weeks immediately prior to election day. Its not just in Quebec either, although they learned this lesson in most dramatic fashion during the last campaign. Things will coast along with tiny upticks and downticks until the writ drops, and then all bets are off. Could be anybody's majority government, Liberal, NDP or Conservative, and we won't have any idea that its coming until about the end of week 2 of the campaign. There is even less party loyalty among the next generation of voters than we have ever seen in the past, so expect even bigger roller coasters once the writ drops in 2015.

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    1. Very good comment. At the same time, though, there have been many elections where nothing much changes during the campaign. The 2008 election was a lot like that. So, while all bets are off the chances that things will remain relatively static are just about as high as the odds that things could change!

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    2. Indeed, the debates could mean everything. What did Nanos poll the NDP at pre-debates in 2011 13-15%? Two strong Layton debates and the huge surge in support that became its own recurring positive news story and bandwagoning effect.

      The French debate will probably be Mulcair v. Trudeau for Québec supremacy , although Paillé will try to play spoiler and Harper will try to be somewhat relevant (and May? uhh.. heh)

      The English debate would be the really important one. It's one where 'double-teams' are possible, where each candidate has strong reason to attack everyone else on the stage (...cept May I suppose), and where each will try to maximize on highlighting each's perceived 'weaknesses' while not coming off in one of their 'weak' ways (i.e. Mulcair angry, Trudeau unprepared, Harper I guess distant/robotic?).

      Dunno, this should be an interesting election. We'll see where all 3 parties are at once the Trudeau honeymoon simmers into place (kind of like how we saw NDP go into about its 29-30% pre-Trudeaumania). I sure wouldn't be surprised to see a poll something like 29-29-29 or 30-30-30 in the future (or something close). Ahh, fun speculation.

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  2. Hey, goddamn you! I already covered that like two years ago! http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2011/06/polling-since-june-1978.html :(

    Its an awesome look through time though, isn't it? I especially like the idea that the PCs were jumping back in 2001-2002 during the Alliance's crisis. Makes you wonder what would've been...

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    1. I see, so you did. Well my chart goes to 2013 so there.

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  3. Being a pundit must have been really, really boring when Jean Chretien was in power...

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  4. You know, I'm curious what it would look like if you added a line with combined NDP+Liberal+Green support, like you did with combined PC+Ref/CA support. I wonder just how steady it would be.

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  5. By the way, I had to use Internet Explorer to post a comment here. Firefox no longer seems to work (at least, I didn't see the "Your comment will be visible after approval." message), and Pale Moon (my usual browser) hasn't worked for a while.

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    1. Your comment on NDP/LPC/GPC support showed up five times in my comment queue, so maybe it was working.

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