Sunday, April 6, 2014

Angus Reid hints at further CAQ gains

What could end up being the last poll of the campaign (never say never) was released yesterday by Angus Reid, showing the same numbers for the Liberals as other polls but a tight race between the Parti Québécois and the Coalition Avenir Québec for second place. Was Angus Reid at the top end of the consensus of where the CAQ stands, or did Angus Reid record further gains for the CAQ? And, perhaps the most important question going into tomorrow's vote, can the CAQ continue its momentum to move into second?

The projection does not consider it a likely possibility. The maximum support for the CAQ and the minimum support for the PQ estimated by the model puts them in a tie at 26.5%. But that would still translate into no fewer than 32 seats for the PQ and no more than 21 for the CAQ. (Recall, however, that the maximum and minimum confidence bands include 95% of scenarios.) But that we're talking about the possibility that the CAQ could actually emerge out of this campaign with more seats than it had at dissolution speaks to the tremendous gains the party has made in the last two weeks.

The Liberals are still well ahead in the projection. While it leans towards the party capturing a majority, the likely ranges still envision as few as 59 seats for the Liberals. That puts them under the 63-seat mark needed for a majority government.

Let's move on to the Angus Reid poll. My detailed analysis of the final projection will  be posted tomorrow morning.

This is the first outing from Angus Reid in this campaign, and for several years in Quebec. The company did put out some numbers in 2008 and did well enough, however.

Angus Reid released only their estimation of likely voters, so we do not know what they got for all eligible voters.

Among likely voters, the Liberals managed 39%, where they have generally been in all polls conducted over the last two weeks. The PQ was at 27% (note that the four previous polls have had the PQ at between 26% and 29%), while the CAQ was at 25%. This is where Angus Reid stands out, as it is the best number the CAQ has recorded in any poll in over a year. But it also continues a rather consistent trend for the party. Since Forum pegged the CAQ at 13% on March 19, there has not been a poll where the CAQ's numbers have not increased.

Québec Solidaire was at just 7%, on the lower side compared to other recent polls.

Angus Reid reported a tight race among French-speakers, with the PQ at 31% to 30% for the Liberals and 28% for the CAQ. Note that Angus Reid appears to use a similar definition for language as Ipsos Reid does. Ipsos found similar numbers in their recent poll. It is inappropriate to compare the language results of Ipsos and Angus, however, to those of CROP and Léger.

Regionally, Angus Reid split up the province by postal codes. In Montreal and Laval, the Liberals were ahead with 48% to 28% for the PQ, 13% for the CAQ, and 9% for QS. This suggests higher PQ support, and lower QS support, than some other polls have recorded in the area.

In eastern Quebec, which encapsulates Trois-Rivières and everything east of it, the Liberals and CAQ were tied at 33%, with the PQ at 26%. As this region includes PQ strongholds like the Lac-Saint-Jean and the Gaspésie, this implies strong Liberal/CAQ numbers in Quebec City and west of it.

In western Quebec, which encapsulates everything west of Trois-Rivières, with the exception of Montreal and Laval, the Liberals led with 36% to 28% for the CAQ and 27% for the PQ. This implies rather strong numbers for the CAQ in the suburbs of Montreal.

But as these definitions are different from those of other firms, it is difficult to draw significant conclusions from them.

Angus Reid did have some other interesting numbers, however. Liberals and PQ supporters remain the most decided (80% and 75%, respectively), while little more than half of CAQ and QS voters have made their final choice.

On who would make the best premier, Philippe Couillard was ahead with 30% to 23% for François Legault and 20% for Pauline Marois. This corroborates the numbers published by Léger, which similarly showed a strong result for the CAQ leader.

Angus Reid also asked respondents whether their opinion of the leaders had worsened or improved during the campaign. For my part, I found the breakdown by 2012 vote the most revealing.

Liberals seem very pleased with Couillard, as 56% of the party's 2012 supporters said their opinion of Couillard improved during the campaign, against just 5% who said it worsened. The numbers are virtually identical for 2012 CAQ voters and Legault: 57% improved to 5% worsened. Françoise David also had similarly positive numbers among QS voters: 40% said their opinion improved against just 4% who said it worsened.

But Marois performed much less well. Only 21% of PQ voters from 2012 said their opinion of her improved during the campaign, while 20% said it worsened. And when we look at her target voters, we see why the PQ is on track for a defeat. Among people who voted CAQ in 2012, only 4% said their opinion of Marois improved during the campaign, while 63% said it worsened. That is enormous. Among QS voters, just 4% said their opinion of Marois improved, while 56% said it worsened. This has made it impossible for the PQ to gain new supporters during this campaign, and it also suggests how the PQ can be dropping from their 2012 performance.

Couillard, on the other hand, has done rather well among CAQ voters: 35% said their opinion of him improved, while 25% said it worsened. Legault had positive scores among Liberal voters (34% to 11%) and PQ voters (34% to 19%) as well, while David had a positive 27% to 10% split among PQ supporters. In other words, Couillard, Legault, and David all had success in pulling support from the kind of voters they needed to target to make gains. Marois had virtually none.

These numbers seem particularly relevatory, and hint at just how difficult it would be for the PQ to make the gains they need in these final days of the campaign. Marois's three main opponents, on the other hand, have good reason to believe they might be able to attract some waverers to their side. There is still much that could happen between this poll leaving the field on April 4 and voters casting their ballots on April 7. But a PQ comeback seems the least likely to occur.

43 comments:

  1. I like your efforts with forecasting, but I disagree on the numbers.
    Take for example ekos and Angus Reid. With their numbers, the liberals probably get over 80 seats in actuality. So the max for PLQ is relatively quite realistic. The PQ max of a majority government is really out of whack with the current trend of a steady decline.

    If I'm forced to predict, I'd say QS 3, CAQ 16, PQ 25, PLQ 83.

    Morris

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    1. I don't think you are factoring in how inefficient the Liberal vote is. They will win ridiculous supermajorities in western Montreal in particular, and be in many more close contests with the PQ/CAQ in the suburbs and the capitale nationale. The PQ vote is far more efficient.

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    2. For all the talk of PLQ votes being inefficient, they only got 4 less seats than the PQ in the last election while losing by 0.75%. It was very reasonable. The supposed inefficiencies didn't hurt them.

      If they are even among francophones, as many polls suggest, they are going to win about a half of those ridings plus the dozens of allophone and anglophone ridings (even a small amount of non francophone per riding is enough).

      Morris

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    3. The PLQ's vote was still inefficient, it's just that in 2012, with the CAQ, the PQ's was even more inefficient. The PLQ has "safe" ridings that they can't lose, no matter what, the PQ doesn't have as many. The CAQ, in 2012, hurt the PQ much more than the PQ. The CAQ is now lower and, with its base ridings, the PLQ has a much easier chance at a majority than the PQ had, even with the vote being split with the CAQ.

      It's fairly simple, the PQ can win a government, and potentially a majority like in 1998, by scoring lower than the PLQ. On the other hand, the PLQ can't do that; they need a few percentage points higher than the PQ to win, and even more to make it to a majority.

      Tonight, if the PLQ can't make it over 36% because of the rise in the CAQ, even if they are leading by almost 10% on the PQ, they won't win a majority. If it was the opposite, the question wouldn't even be asked, the PQ would get its majority easily (ie. using the average above, 67 PLQ vs. 39 PQ, and switching only those two around, 79 PQ vs. 30 PLQ, 12 more seats, same numbers, much more efficient).

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  2. 1. "But a PQ comeback seems the least likely to occur". Famous last words? ;)

    2. Any bets on whether Forum will release one of their trademark eleventh-hour polls at precisely 10:51pm tonight?

    3. I continue to find it highly surprising that CROP released no further numbers after March 16. Disconcerting, even.

    Dom

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    1. Forum told me they hadn't decided yet. That CROP would not be out again has been rumoured since earlier in the week, so it appears to have been a conscious decision. A disappointing one.

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  3. Let's see what the PQ spin will be tomorrow.

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  4. Note: nearly 18% have voted early. An uptick from 2012's.
    http://www.lactuel.com/Actualites/2014-04-02/article-3674746/Forte-participation-au-vote-par-anticipation-dans-la-region-de-Quebec/1

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    1. This would mess with the CAQ numbers.

      Eric by the way, you should ask pollsters about them inquiring about people who have voted already. I have seen no information by any of the late pollsters taken after a million voted.

      Morris

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    2. 18% of voters is probably around a quarter of the actual vote. This will be votes before the major CAQ surge.

      Morris

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  5. If the CAQ either tied or exceeded the seats for the PQ what would that do to Marois ??

    Gone to the wilderness would be my guess ??

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    1. Marois is finished if the result in anything other than a PQ majority.

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    2. The narrative will be strange if the PQ somehow win even a minority. She may hang on. But who are we kidding. The PQ are going down tomorrow because it will be either a Liberal minority or a Liberal majority. She has been a dead woman walking for the last week and it shows.

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    3. Agreed TS but, a second minority would buy her some time at least.

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  6. I strongly disagree with your projections. You should consider the historical pattern of voting within each districst. There is not much chance liberals are going for majority I'd say max 35%. the PQ is still strong in lanaudiere-laurentides/abitibi /Montérégie. It all comes down to Estrie and saguenay. Furthermore Bonaventure, Laval des rapides and Sherbrooke will follow the winner ( they did last 7 elections). Way too much weight on the polls in your analysis, historical district distribution have proven polls wrong a lot of times. 58 PLQ , 48 PQ, 16 CAQ and 3 QS is more close to reality. ( Dont delete my comment if my right) thanks.

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  7. My prediction is 58 PLQ, 48 PQ, 16 CAQ and 3 QS . Way to much weight to polls for your forecast. Remember that there is 125 districts, and most of the polls count about 1000 responders. that's about 8-9 people per district , not credible at all. Historical distribution should be used for sure and then adjust it with the polls, this is what I've done and I came with the prediction below.

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    1. Would historical distribution captured the 2011 orange wave?

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    2. No but it's a mix between polls and historic distribution. if the polls show clear trend then it will outweight historical distribution and you will be able to predict it right. However in this election polls do not show a big change in each districts , which leaves me very septic of a majority. It's likely to be a liberal ( 90% according to my model) but there is only 30% that they get majority.

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    3. I find my own predictions low for the PLQ considering their score (67 PLQ, 39 PQ, 16 CAQ, 3 QS). At the same time, they are scoring lower than in 2008 by about 3% where they took 66 seats, a majority by 3, but the opposition is scoring much lower too, 35% for the PQ compared to about 27% today.

      I find your distribution low for the PLQ and high for the PQ. The closest approximation, though impefect, would be 2007 where the PQ got 28% of the vote and 36 seats. The PLQ was scoring at 33% then, so they should be able to beat them even more, even considering the ADQ/CAQ is scoring under the PQ unlike in 2007.

      Unless you are using "trending" numbers from the latest polls, I can't see your scenario happening.

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    4. Once again you are using only "trends" from the polls which I think is not accurate since it has no credibility per district. I think the right way to go is using historical distribution and then weigth it with the polls. Let's see who's right tonight :)

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    5. I do use the last four election results for each riding and the trend of each party in each riding. I do not use any regional results whatsoever and I only use the poll numbers to add/substract from the trend of each riding.

      For example, the Sherbrooke riding where Jean Charest was elected but was won by 7% by the PQ in 2012. On the past 4 elections, they were voting, on average, 2,88% over the national results and in 2012, compared to 2003, they voted 2,06% more for the PLQ. The party is trending upwards and are awarded a 4,94% bonus in Sherbrooke. For the PQ, they are voting 5,84% over the national results and, from 2003 to 2012, they gained 9,19%, for a total bonus of 15,03%. Now, the PLQ is polling at 40% and the PQ at 27%, which gives the PLQ at 44,94%, the PQ at 42,03%, a tight liberal victory, even if the PQ is trending upwards a lot more than the PLQ because of the national results.

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    6. I am sorry Sam I do not understand your point. If poll averages can veto historical distribution in your method perhaps you should just use the polls.

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  8. Eric, I think that you should allow comments without only being released once in many hours. We want to have a debate. Thanks for your great work.

    Morris

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  9. We're getting a Forum poll tonight.

    Morris

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    1. Nevermind, saw the talk of one on Twitter.

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  10. The Anglo vote is once again deciding who forms the government!

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    1. The PLQ is leading among francophones now too.

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    2. Not at all... it's all the francophone voters who are switching their support from the PQ to the PLQ. Anglophone voters basically support the PLQ without exception, and decide nothing.

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    3. The Anglo vote always goes Liberal. That is more certain than death or taxes. Thus, it is the francophones who will decide whether to be afraid of the Liberals, or afraid of a referendum.

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    4. Like all Westminster systems the swing ridings determine who forms government. The election will be decided in places like Sherebrooke, St-Francois, Maskinongé.

      Chirumenga is absolutely right Francophones have turned the election from a PQ government into a Liberal majority.

      On a more philosophical level who cares if Anglophones decide who governs or if Francophones or Allophones decide? Everyone has an equal vote-collectively the citizens decide who forms government? That is the way democracy works. The reality is that Anglophones hold significant perhaps determinant sway in 20 ridings out of 125. Therefore, there is no logical argument that Anglophones decide who forms governments since 105/125 constituencies are not decided by them. I can assure you had Anglophones determined electoral outcomes Quebec would be in a far better fiscal position.

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  11. I predict a small Liberal majority. If the CAQ numbers hold the PQ will be left with 35 seats. CAQ will win 19, QS 2.

    With numbers like these in the final days it is tempting to predict a minority for the Liberals, however election fatigue (this is the fourth election since 2007) will sway voters toward majority government.

    PKP will get elected.

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  12. Forum's poll will be released before 11 pm tonight.

    Morris

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  13. PLQ 44, PQ 24, CAQ 23, QS 6. Hey Eric, do you know if any of the companies will be conducting exit polls?

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    1. I'm sure some will, but I haven't heard anything.

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  14. http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/31530_QC_Election_News_Release_%282014.04.06%29_Forum_Research.pdf

    Liberal Landslide if Forum is to be believed.

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    1. LOL, that's a Whopper. We will have to wait for Monday night and hold Forum's feet to the fire.

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    2. Not so sure it is a whopper. I think the Liberals will win. Last elections PQ vote was really a Charest rejection !! Let's wait and see if the Lib's get a majority ?

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    3. I do not buy that for one second. Almost one person in two voting PLQ? I don't know where they got those numbers... Even QS at 6%, that's placing them right back where they were in the last election, but they toured this time around and they will most definitely gain a few percentage points. Or the PQ for that matter. Die hard PQ voters that will not, under any circumpstances, change their allegiance and, seeing the way this election is going, will go and vote to try and block the liberal majority. 27-28%, more or less, is what the PQ can count on. The only way for them to go down would be to QS, and QS is lower than in any other poll since the beginning of the election, so that's not the case.

      All in all, I call bullshit on this. The liberals will win a majority, but a close one.

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    4. My final numbers, using the polls average, is:

      65 PLQ
      40 PQ
      17 CAQ
      3 QS

      Using the numbers I'm predicting using the latest trends in the polls, I get:

      64 PLQ
      34 PQ
      24 CAQ
      3 QS

      The result of the election will be: tight Liberal majority.

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  15. Forum's poll will be very close to the actual result. With the winner a foregone conclusion, it will be very difficult to get the PQ to get weakly-committed voters to turn out. If the PQ is battling it out for second place, as all polls have been showing for the last week, you can't expect them to win many seats.

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  16. Tu penses faire un choix en allant voter ? Il y a longtemps que ta génétique et ton cerveau ont décidé pour toi où tu allais mettre ton «X».
    http://www.jetejure.com/2014/04/07/ta-genetique-a-deja-decide-pour-qui-tu-allais-voter/

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  17. I think you may be off on QS. I think they may take Ste-Marie-St-Jacques. The PQ is running Daniel Breton who was accused of EI fraud, non payment of fines and skipping rent payments. Manon Massé was his closest runner up and the area has a lot of students from UQAM who aren't going to stay with the PQ because of their tuition increases. I think this may be a swing riding this election... a riding that has been PQ since it's amalgamation.

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