Monday, April 7, 2014

Final Quebec projection: Liberal victory

Philippe Couillard's Quebec Liberal Party is on track to win tonight's provincial election in Quebec and form a new government. Pauline Marois's Parti Québécois should form the Official Opposition, while François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec and Françoise David's Québec Solidaire should retain their positions as the third and fourth parties, respectively, in the National Assembly.

The final projection suggests that the Liberals are very likely to win a majority government, though a minority government is still a distinct possibility. All of the charts below can be magnified by clicking or tapping on them.

The likely outcome

The Liberals are projected to win between 60 and 78 seats, putting them mostly over the 63-seat mark needed to form a majority government. They should take between 38.5% and 44.2% of the popular vote. Their best performance since 2003, when Jean Charest first won a majority government, is thus possible. The precise projection is for the Liberals to take 40.1% of the vote and win 69 seats, their best result since 2008 and 2003, respectively.

Click to magnify
The Parti Québécois should finish second with between 38 and 54 seats, capturing between 26.1% and 29.6% of the vote. In terms of seats, the party should not do worse than its 2007 performance under André Boisclair, but could take its lowest share of the vote since 1970, when the PQ took 23% in its first electoral outing. The projection gives them a precise total of 26.9% of the vote and 45 seats. The former would be their worst performance since 1970.

Remaining in third place should be the Coalition Avenir Québec, with between five and 13 seats and between 21% and 24.4% of the vote. More precisely, the CAQ is expected to win 22.8% of the vote and nine seats. That is a drop from their 2012 performance of 19 seats and 27.1% of the vote, but relative to the past results of the Action Démocratique du Québec, its predecessor party, it still represents their third-best result since 1994.

Québec Solidaire will finish fourth with two seats and between 7.2% and 8.4% of the vote (or 7.9% more precisely), which would make this campaign their best result on record.

The provincial Greens, who have fielded only 44 candidates out of a possible 125, are projected to take between 0.5% and 0.7% of the vote. Option Nationale, which has put up almost a full slate, should take between 0.4% and 0.7% of the vote. Other parties and independents are projected to take between 0.5% and 1.5% of the vote (the Conservative Party of Quebec, the party fielding the most candidates in this category, will likely finish first in this group). No seats are projected to be won by any candidate other than those running for the four major parties.

Expecting the unexpected

Recent polling performances have taught us to approach elections with a great deal of caution, and tonight's vote should be no different. In 2012, the Liberals were under-estimated in the polls to a great degree, enough to turn a potential slim PQ majority into a very slim PQ minority. An exact repeat of 2012 is unlikely, as the Liberals are no longer a government in free fall, a role the PQ is now filling. Nevertheless, some sort of miss is still more than possible.

Ranges tracking
The maximum and minimum ranges take that into account (though even here, they are designed to capture 95% of potential results). At these ranges, the Liberals could win between 48 and 83 seats and between 36.1% and 51.4% of the vote, while the PQ could win between 29 and 63 seats and between 25.8% and 34.4% of the vote.

This does open up the possibility of the PQ finishing first in the seat count and second in the popular vote, but it would require a miss of the same proportions as we saw in Alberta and British Columbia. Considering how the campaign unfolded in Quebec, such a result would not only be surprising from a statistical point of view but from a completely subjective one as well. The uncertainty that prevails at the end of this campaign is more in terms of how far the PQ may fall, rather than whether a Liberal victory is in the cards.

That is because of the gains the CAQ has been making in the last two weeks of the campaign. They could win between four and 23 seats and between 18.7% and 26.7% of the vote. As the party has seen its support increase in every new poll since March 19, it makes it very likely that the CAQ will end up on the high side of the projection. Indeed, the CAQ could end up with more seats than they had at dissolution.

For Québec Solidaire, there is far less potential for a major surprise, ranging at between 6.5% and 9.2% of the vote and between two and three seats. That all points to improvement over 2012's result, however.

The Greens and Option Nationale, even at their maximums, are not expected to be able to do much better than their projected result (and could even fall to as little as 0.3% of the vote). Fatima Houda-Pepin in the riding of La Pinière, however, is considered capable of pulling off an upset at the extreme edges of the projection.

Regional breakdown

The Liberals are projected to finish first in the four regions defined by the model: the island of Montreal, the suburbs of Montreal, the Quebec City region, and the rest of the province.

Regional breakdown
On the island of Montreal, the Liberals are projected to have between 50% and 57.3% support, enough to give them 20 or 21 seats. The island is a rather static place in Quebec, where few seats change hands. Even at the extremes, the Liberals are projected to still win between 19 and 21 seats. The PQ should finish second with between 19.1% and 21.6% of the vote, taking five to six seats, while QS should take between 11.7% and 13.6% of the vote and two seats. The CAQ could edge out QS for third in the popular vote, with between 11.9% and 13.9%. The region is where QS could win its third seat, and it will be interesting to see how much of the vote the party takes here. Polls have given them as much as 19% support, which would easily net them four seats, but also as little as 9%, which is less than the 12% the party captured in 2012.

Tracking regional support
In the off-island suburbs of Montreal, the Liberals hold their narrowest lead with between 32.9% and 37.7% of the vote to between 29.5% and 33.5% for the PQ. This should net the PQ between 14 and 17 seats, while the Liberals take between 12 and 14 and the CAQ between zero and four. This is a bit of a swing region, as the extremes expand to 9-21 seats for the PQ, 8-16 for the Liberals, and 0-8 for the CAQ. The results for the CAQ are worth keeping an eye on, as this is the region of Quebec where they have made the most gains since the mid-point of the campaign.

Riding projections, A-L
The Quebec City region is a two-horse race, with the Liberals between 37.2% and 42.7% of the vote, compared to between 31.5% and 36.7% for the CAQ. The Liberals should win between six and eight seats, while the CAQ should take between three and four. The PQ can win none or one. This is another swing region, but primarily for the CAQ. They could win as many as seven seats, dropping the Liberals to three.

Riding projections, L-Z
In the regions of Quebec, the Liberals should take between 35.8% and 41% of the vote and win between 22 and 35 seats. The PQ should capture between 30% and 34% of the vote and between 19 and 30 seats, while the CAQ should take between 21% and 24.5% of the vote and between two and five seats. This is the most important 'region' of Quebec in terms of deciding the electoral outcome (not surprisingly, it has the most seats in the model). This region alone could drop the Liberals to 62 seats and into a minority situation. The major electoral battles will occur in the swathe of territory between Montreal and Quebec City: the Mauricie, Centre-du-Quebec, and Estrie. More than a few three-way races could occur here.

The polls

Polling in Quebec has been quite consistent, with pollsters generally agreeing on the state of the race and the trends that were developing. At the beginning of the campaign, the PQ and Liberals were neck and neck as the CAQ was well behind. But at the mid-point of the campaign the PQ began to falter, as the three other parties inched upwards. The Liberals held steady but the PQ plunged, as the CAQ increased its support significantly. If the campaign had been a week longer, the PQ may have dropped into third. That could potentially still happen.

Polls representing at least 99% of the weighted average
The last set of polls have been rather consistent. With the exception of the Forum Research poll conducted on April 3, all of the final polls (looking at likely voters, when available) have had the Liberals between 38% and 40% of the vote, a rather tight grouping. The PQ has been between 27% and 29%, which is just as tight. But the CAQ has been harder to peg. Ipsos Reid had the party at 18% among likely voters in their poll ending April 1, while the polls from EKOS, Léger, and Forum ending on April 3 had the CAQ at either 21% or 23%. The poll by Angus Reid finishing April 4 had the party at 25%. Is that a normal spread caused by the margin of error, or are these steady gains being made by the CAQ? Did those gains plateau, or would polling conducted on April 6 have shown another two or three point gain for the party?

Campaign polling trends
Support for QS has been mixed as well, with the party at between 6% and 12% in the final polls. The bulk of the surveys, however, put the party under 10%, and considering its historical tendency to under-perform the polls, that is the safest bet.

But the polls have been generally even throughout the campaign, with little real controversy or outliers. It has been interesting, however, to see the polling being dominated by firms from outside Quebec. Léger was the only Quebec-based firm to be polling up to the end, while the other surveys in the last week came from Ipsos Reid, EKOS, Forum (all Ontario-based) and Angus Reid (B.C.-based). CROP dropped out of the field, publicly at least, after their poll of March 13-16. CROP had been very active in 2012, so that was unusual. There was also a great lack of riding-level polling, with only two surveys being released during the entire campaign, after one in five ridings were individually polled in 2012.

How the leaders fared

Both Philippe Couillard and François Legault have seen their numbers improve throughout the campaign. The most frequently polled question, on who would make the best premier, showed gains for both leaders.

Couillard had started the year at between 22% and 25% on this question, but as the campaign progressed that increased to between 26% and 27% to 30% in the last Angus Reid and 33% in the final Ipsos Reid. Legault went from 13% to 15% before the campaign began to between 23% and 25% at the end of it, putting him either in a tie or ahead of Pauline Marois. The incumbent premier dropped from 30% to between 20% and 25%.

Forum was the only firm to also ask approval rating questions, and here we see growth for Legault again. His approval rating was 32% at the beginning of the campaign, while his disapproval rating was 49%. In Forum's last poll, Legault had an approval rating of 57% to 27% disapproval. He really had a stellar campaign - but most of it in the last two weeks.

Couillard's numbers were stable after an early jump from 34% to 44% approval. His approval rating barely deviated from that to the end of the campaign, while his disapproval rating topped out at 42% in the final week.

Marois's approval ratings dropped insignificantly but consistently, from 34% to 32% and then 31% at the end of the campaign, as her disapproval rating increased from 58% to 65%.

These three sets of numbers tell the story of the election rather well. An early bump for Couillard that held steady (a good way to describe his campaign), and sustained decrease and increase for Marois and Legault, respectively.

Pauline Marois is given a 55% chance of winning her riding of Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré, with between 36% and 41% of the vote against 33% to 38% for her Liberal challenger. One would expect a leadership bonus to make her safe, but we've seen many cases of leaders losing their seats in recent elections (Darrell Dexter in Nova Scotia, Christy Clark in British Columbia, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe in the federal election of 2011).

It is a similar situation in Roberval, Philippe Couillard's chosen riding. He lives there, but he certainly did not choose an easy seat for himself. The Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region is not known for its Liberal leanings. The model considers the riding a genuine toss-up, with the PQ given a 50% chance of winning it with 38% to 44% of the vote against 37% to 43% for Couillard.

Oddly enough, François Legault is slated to be the leader most likely to win his seat of the three main parties. And this after he spent most of the campaign expected to lose. He is given a 61% chance of winning L'Assomption, with between 38% and 44% of the vote against 35% to 39% for the PQ candidate.

Françoise David is the safest leader going into tonight's vote, with an 87% chance of winning her Montreal riding of Gouin. She is projected to take between 47% and 54% of the vote, against 27% to 30% for the PQ candidate. Her co-spokesperson, Andrès Fontecilla, is unlikely to be successful in the neighbouring riding of Laurier-Dorion. Gerry Skalvounos of the Liberals is given a 73% chance of winning, with between 38% and 43% of the vote against 25% to 28% for Fontecilla. I would bet on a better performance for Fontecilla, however.

A campaign that shows the importance of campaigns

Most commentators, including yours truly, expected the Parti Québécois to be successful in its quest for a majority government. The PQ was dominating among francophones and Couillard was starting to look like he had the leadership instincts of an Ignatieff. The CAQ was being squeezed out of the debate on the charter. But in the end, a mismanaged, chaotic, and inconsistent campaign sunk Pauline Marois and the PQ. As soon as the focus turned to a potential referendum, the Liberals made headway as the best anti-PQ option. And as soon as the PQ started to flail wildly as its poll numbers dropped, Legault began to look like the better anti-Liberal option. It was a disaster for the PQ from start to finish.

This is what makes the last polls of the campaign believable. One could argue in Alberta that Wildrose did not have the feeling of a government about to come to power, or that in B.C. the New Democrats had not really waged a winning campaign. It would be shocking if the PQ somehow managed to win this election tonight, after itself giving every indication that the party was on track for defeat. The behaviour of the party over the last few weeks has not been the behaviour of a party doing well.

That does not make tonight's vote a foregone conclusion. There are numerous factors to take into account:

The Liberals have only been out of power for 18 months. Are Quebecers ready to give them a majority government? Will voters who want nothing of a PQ victory but still feel uncomfortable with the Liberals go over to the CAQ, now that a PQ re-election is no longer likely?

Will the PQ manage to convince enough sovereigntists not to split the vote in order to prevent a majority victory by the Liberals?

The CAQ's voters have been recorded in poll after poll as being much less committed to their party than supporters of the PQ and Liberals. Will those voters waver when it comes time to cast a ballot? Does the CAQ have enough organization to get out its vote? Will the momentum that has been carrying Legault and the CAQ forward in the last few weeks continue and push the party to new heights?

And will QS be able to better its historical under-performance of the polls, concentrating its vote in the right places? Or will their high hopes be squashed again?

We'll find out tonight. It has been a whirlwind of a campaign, so plenty could still have occurred in the final days after the pollsters left the field. But Philippe Couillard and his Liberal Party appear set to prevail.

40 comments:

  1. How come the forum poll taken only last Thursday didn't move the projection by even one seat?

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    1. Actually it did. The PQ lost one seat to the CAQ, the CAQ lost one seat to the PLQ, and the PLQ lost one seat to the PQ.

      The ranges have changed.

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  2. another complicating factor: extremely high advance poll turnout... potentially 25% of total votes cast. these were cast before the CAQ surge and may end up very different than the e-day results.

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    1. Bryan, that's a very good point. Éric, I wonder whether you should consider freezing, say 25% (or whatever the number is in a given campaign) of the vote in your projection, and only ajusting the other 75% with polls that come later...

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    2. Polls should implicitly do this already, as some of those surveyed at the end of the campaign would have already voted.

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    3. Also, those who vote early are probably "very decided" voters, unlikely to affect survey trends over the last week. I dont think there is a lot of people going to vote early who could have their vote swayed one way or another by the last week of the campaign.

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  3. I find it pretty interesting that your projection could envision a minority government, where all three of the major party`s leaders lose their own seat. It isn`t likely, but neither is it a far-fetched outlier. I almost hope that happens, just to see how they would manage it.

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  4. Éric,

    I realize your Min-Max estimates are based on set formulas, but I'm wondering if you shouldn't consider allowing them to be trumped by individual poll results that happen to fall outside the calculated range.

    I'm of course thinking of this new Forum poll that has the PQ at 24%, whereas you have their "worst case" minimum pegged at 25.8%. Now, I recognize that Forum polls have a tendency to be flaky, but I'm just thinking it would be unfortunate if your model failed to predict an extreme PQ collapse below 25%—even as a remote possibility—despite there being a late-campaign poll that clearly hinted that it could happen.

    Alternatively, I wonder if you could somehow add a "momentum" factor to your final projections in those cases such as this one where it's hard to tell if late-campaign trends (e.g. dropping PQ, increasing CAQ) have stabilized by the time the final polls are conducted or whether they're still ongoing.

    Dom

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    1. I'm always open to tweaking after campaigns. If something like that occurs, I'll definitely consider it. I never change the model mid-stream, though.

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    2. Yes, of course. Just putting some ideas out there. Overall great and diligent work covering this campaign, as usual! And may the odds be ever in your favour! ;)

      Cheers,

      Dom

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  5. My final numbers, using the polls average, is:

    65 PLQ
    40 PQ
    17 CAQ
    3 QS

    Using the numbers I'm predicting using the latest trends in the polls, I get:

    64 PLQ
    34 PQ
    24 CAQ
    3 QS

    The result of the election will be: tight Liberal majority.

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    Replies
    1. That is too close for comfort.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. I get the first set of numbers using the aggregated poll results at the top and the second numbers by using 38,5% PLQ, 26,5% PQ, 25% CAQ and 8,5% QS, which I believe will ressemble the outcome of the elections.

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  6. My prediction:
    Vote share: Lib 39%, PQ 28% CAQ 25% QS 7%
    which results in LIB - 68 PQ-42 CAQ-12 QS-3

    My baseline (101 seats)
    LIB - 58 PQ - 32 CAQ 8 QS - 3

    Swing (24 seats), depends on the scenario.
    1)"Prime a l'urne" - Liberal boost
    Vote share: Lib 44%, PQ 27% CAQ 21% QS 7%
    Swing seats (total): LIB - 17 (75) PQ 7 (39) CAQ 0 (8) QS 0 (3)
    2)CAQ Fever
    Vote share: Lib 36%, PQ 28% CAQ 28% QS 7%
    Swing seats (total): LIB - 2 (60) PQ 6 (38) CAQ 16 (24) QS 0 (3)
    3)PKistan, where PQ's vote share hit bottom.
    Vote share: Lib 40%, PQ 25% CAQ 25% QS 9%
    Swing seats (total): LIB - 13 (71) PQ 0 (32) CAQ 11 (19) QS 0 (3)

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  7. Prediction:

    PLQ 40.8%
    CAQ 30.1%
    PQ 20.2%
    QS 8.0%

    I'm basing this off of the momentum of the parties' polling and continuing such momentum through the weekend and polling day which was not polled. I'm not sure what this would do to seat counts, but I imagine the CAQ would become the official opposition.

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    1. With my simulator, your numbers would give:

      67 PLQ
      35 CAQ
      19 PQ
      4 QS

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    2. Thanks! Those are very reasonable numbers IMO except maybe one less QS seat.

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    3. The QS seat comes from the PQ, so it would not be surprising considering the very low score you gave them.

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  8. http://www.canada.com/news/national/Five+lessons+from+Quebec+election+campaign/9706405/story.html

    Eric you are being quoted every where these days! Congratulations on a job well done. I always enjoy the work done here. Thanks again!!

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  9. My guess is that the PLQ will end up with about 75 seats. The rest is still up in the air. I would not be surprised to see the CAQ come second, but do consider it a long shot.

    Does anyone know when the polls close?

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    1. 8 pm according to the google machine.

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  10. My prediction:

    CAQ gets screwed by FPTP, and Quebeckers are left with only the PQ and PLQ as major factors.

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    1. People said the same thing about the NDP in 2011. At some point, there is a critical voting percentage a party has to pass where seats start falling towards them in large amounts. The PQ-CAQ ones are, interestingly, going to be the most intriguinging this time around.

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    2. My opinion is the critical voting percentage is about 40%. Once you hit such a number a party is almost guaranteed to finish first or second in any riding.

      FPTP in a sense helps smaller or medium parties since regionalism plays a significant role at a point a party begins to win disproportionally more seats.

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    3. Seems I was dead wrong.

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    4. I figured that CAQ's vote would be more efficient than what projections were suggesting, since this seemed more like people voting against the PQ rather than for the PLQ, and that argument isn't compelling in CAQ-held ridings. But wow. Much more than I expected.

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    5. FPTP does not help smaller or medium parties. Can you cite an example? The Greens get 6% of the vote - which should work out to 18 seats (in a 308 seat Parliament). The first election in which the NDP got as many (actually more) seats proportionally than their vote was the 2011 election, when they finally became a 'big' party. Talking regional parties, they seem to amass concentrated support that still translates to fewer seats proportionally.

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    6. Depends on how you define small or medium. If their vote is regionally concentrated they can still do well - look at the Bloc and Reform in the 1990s. If their vote is more evenly spread, they don't do nearly so well.

      Fun fact though: only once in Canadian history has a party broken 5% without taking a seat. That was the Greens in 2008. So PR wouldn't necessarily change the number of parties so much as it would distribute the number of seats between them differently.

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    7. chirumenga,

      It is undeniable FPTP helps small and medium parties. Grrens, BQ, Reform, The Progressives, Equality in Quebec, Social credit, CCF-NDP. All of these parties started from a regional base. The Greens are a perfect example. Although their vote share is small its localisation in Southern Vancouver Island garnered them a seat.

      Six per cent does not and should not entitle seats because it is not enough to win. Democracy is based on majority or close to majority rule, 6% means 94% oppose the Greens. 6% is not a win-it is a very significant loss. If you get 6% you have a mandate to do nothing except stay well enough alone from the levers of power.

      The idea that six per cent entitles the Greens to 18 seats fails to take into account the fact 308 elections simultaneously occur not one. In 307/308 ridings the vast majority of voters did not cast a ballot for the Greens. The only people who think 6% should get a party or person a role in government or the ability to become representatives are those parties or people who will or are unable to meet the usual threshold of democracy, plurality or majority rule.

      There are many examples of medium parties winning a disproportionate share of the vote too many to list. It should be clear to you that most new and small parties start with and sometimes retreat to a regional base; The Progressives, BQ, CCF-NDP, Reform.

      Disproportionality usually occurs on a regional level. Thus, the UFA won 2/16 seats with 5% of the vote in Alberta in 1925. the NDP won a disproportionate number of BC seats in 1965, 1972, 1980, 1988, 2011 and a roughly proportionate share in 2008 and 2006.

      Finally, the NDP is not a big party. In our two party plus system the NDP is still the plus! Polls show it does not have a reasonable chance to govern alone or win a plurality-not because of the voting system but, voters' preference.

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  11. Using the aggregated poll numbers from the site, I get:

    Abitibi-Est PLQ
    Abitibi-Ouest PQ
    Acadie PLQ
    Anjou-Louis-Riel PLQ
    Argenteuil PQ
    Arthabaska CAQ
    Beauce-Nord CAQ
    Beauce-Sud PLQ
    Beauharnois PQ
    Bellechasse PLQ
    Berthier PQ
    Bertrand CAQ
    Blainville CAQ
    Bonaveture PQ
    Borduas CAQ
    Bourassa-Sauvé PLQ
    Bourget PQ
    Brome-Missisquoi PLQ
    Chambly PQ
    Champlain PQ
    Chapleau PLQ
    Charlesbourg PLQ
    Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré PQ
    Châteauguay PLQ
    Chauveau CAQ
    Chicoutimi PQ
    Chomeday PLQ
    Chute-de-la-Chaudière CAQ
    Côte-du-Sud PLQ
    Crémazie PLQ
    D'Arcy-McGee PLQ
    Deux-Montagnes CAQ
    Drummond-Bois-Francs CAQ
    Dubuc PQ
    Duplessis PQ
    Fabre PLQ
    Gaspé PQ
    Gatineau PLQ
    Gouin QS
    Granby CAQ
    Groulx CAQ
    Hochelaga-Maisonneuve PQ
    Hull PLQ
    Huntingdon PLQ
    Iberville PQ
    Îles-de-la-Madeleine PQ
    Jacques-Cartier PLQ
    Jean-Lesage PLQ
    Jeanne-Mance-Viger PLQ
    Jean-Talon PLQ
    Johnson PQ
    Joliette PQ
    Jonquière PQ
    La Peltrie CAQ
    La Pinière PLQ
    La Prairie PLQ
    Labelle PQ
    Lac-Saint-Jean PQ
    LaFontaine PLQ
    Laporte PLQ
    L'Assomption CAQ
    Laurier-Dorion PLQ
    Laval-des-Rapides PLQ
    Laviolette PLQ
    Lévis PLQ
    Lotbinière-Frontenac PLQ
    Louis-Hébert PLQ
    Marguerite-Bourgeoys PLQ
    Marie-Victorin PQ
    Marquette PLQ
    Maskinongé PLQ
    Masson PQ
    Matane-Matapédia PQ
    Mégantic PLQ
    Mercier QS
    Mille-Îles PLQ
    Mirabel PQ
    Montarville CAQ
    Montmorency PLQ
    Mont-Royal PLQ
    Nelligan PLQ
    Nicolet-Bécancour PLQ
    Notre-Dame-de-Grâce PLQ
    Orford PLQ
    Outremont PLQ
    Papineau PLQ
    Pointe-aux-Trembles PQ
    Pontiac PLQ
    Portneuf PLQ
    René-Lévesque PQ
    Repentigny CAQ
    Richelieu PQ
    Richmond PLQ
    Rimouski PQ
    Rivière-du-Loup-Témiscouata PLQ
    Robert-Baldwin PLQ
    Roberval PLQ
    Rosemont PQ
    Rousseau CAQ
    Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue PQ
    Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques QS
    Sainte-Rose PLQ
    Saint-François PLQ
    Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne PLQ
    Saint-Hyacinte PQ
    Saint-Jean PQ
    Saint-Jérôme PQ
    Saint-Laurent PLQ
    Saint-Maurice PLQ
    Sanguinet PQ
    Sherbrooke PLQ
    Soulanges PLQ
    Taillon PQ
    Taschereau PLQ
    Terrebonne PQ
    Trois-Rivières PLQ
    Ungava PLQ
    Vachon PQ
    Vanier-Les Rivières PLQ
    Vaudreauil PLQ
    Verchères PQ
    Verdun PLQ
    Viau PLQ
    Vimont PLQ
    Westmount-Saint-Louis PLQ

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  12. Using my own predictions for the results:

    38,5% PLQ
    26,5% PQ
    25% CAQ
    8% QS

    The ridings become:

    Abitibi-Est PLQ
    Abitibi-Ouest PQ
    Acadie PLQ
    Anjou-Louis-Riel PLQ
    Argenteuil PQ
    Arthabaska CAQ
    Beauce-Nord CAQ
    Beauce-Sud PLQ
    Beauharnois PQ
    Bellechasse PLQ
    Berthier PQ
    Bertrand CAQ
    Blainville CAQ
    Bonaveture PQ
    Borduas CAQ
    Bourassa-Sauvé PLQ
    Bourget PQ
    Brome-Missisquoi PLQ
    Chambly CAQ
    Champlain CAQ
    Chapleau PLQ
    Charlesbourg PLQ
    Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré PQ
    Châteauguay PLQ
    Chauveau CAQ
    Chicoutimi PQ
    Chomeday PLQ
    Chute-de-la-Chaudière CAQ
    Côte-du-Sud PLQ
    Crémazie PLQ
    D'Arcy-McGee PLQ
    Deux-Montagnes CAQ
    Drummond-Bois-Francs CAQ
    Dubuc PQ
    Duplessis PQ
    Fabre PLQ
    Gaspé PQ
    Gatineau PLQ
    Gouin QS
    Granby CAQ
    Groulx CAQ
    Hochelaga-Maisonneuve PQ
    Hull PLQ
    Huntingdon PLQ
    Iberville PQ
    Îles-de-la-Madeleine PQ
    Jacques-Cartier PLQ
    Jean-Lesage PLQ
    Jeanne-Mance-Viger PLQ
    Jean-Talon PLQ
    Johnson PQ
    Joliette PQ
    Jonquière PQ
    La Peltrie CAQ
    La Pinière PLQ
    La Prairie CAQ
    Labelle PQ
    Lac-Saint-Jean PQ
    LaFontaine PLQ
    Laporte PLQ
    L'Assomption CAQ
    Laurier-Dorion PLQ
    Laval-des-Rapides PLQ
    Laviolette PLQ
    Lévis PLQ
    Lotbinière-Frontenac PLQ
    Louis-Hébert PLQ
    Marguerite-Bourgeoys PLQ
    Marie-Victorin PQ
    Marquette PLQ
    Maskinongé PLQ
    Masson PQ
    Matane-Matapédia PQ
    Mégantic PLQ
    Mercier QS
    Mille-Îles PLQ
    Mirabel PQ
    Montarville CAQ
    Montmorency PLQ
    Mont-Royal PLQ
    Nelligan PLQ
    Nicolet-Bécancour CAQ
    Notre-Dame-de-Grâce PLQ
    Orford PLQ
    Outremont PLQ
    Papineau PLQ
    Pointe-aux-Trembles PQ
    Pontiac PLQ
    Portneuf PLQ
    René-Lévesque PQ
    Repentigny CAQ
    Richelieu CAQ
    Richmond PLQ
    Rimouski PQ
    Rivière-du-Loup-Témiscouata PLQ
    Robert-Baldwin PLQ
    Roberval PLQ
    Rosemont PQ
    Rousseau CAQ
    Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue PQ
    Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques QS
    Sainte-Rose CAQ
    Saint-François PLQ
    Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne PLQ
    Saint-Hyacinte PQ
    Saint-Jean PQ
    Saint-Jérôme PQ
    Saint-Laurent PLQ
    Saint-Maurice PLQ
    Sanguinet CAQ
    Sherbrooke PLQ
    Soulanges PLQ
    Taillon PQ
    Taschereau PLQ
    Terrebonne PQ
    Trois-Rivières PLQ
    Ungava PLQ
    Vachon CAQ
    Vanier-Les Rivières PLQ
    Vaudreauil PLQ
    Verchères PQ
    Verdun PLQ
    Viau PLQ
    Vimont PLQ
    Westmount-Saint-Louis PLQ

    ReplyDelete
  13. Well, I might as well throw my hat into the ring so to speak, here is my prediction:

    PLQ 69
    PQ 35
    CAQ 19
    QS 2

    ReplyDelete
  14. Éric,

    Just wanted to say how much I appreciate your observations and analysis of the political context around these polls (i.e. particularly the last few paragraphs of this post). Well done.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And also appreciated your input on Power Play with Don Martin today. Thank You

      Delete
  15. 10 PM

    PLQ 71

    PQ 32

    CAQ 19

    QS 3

    ReplyDelete
  16. can I add my prediction now? ha ha

    ReplyDelete
  17. It's interesting to compare the seat predictions based on the amalgamated polls.

    Only one prediction fits with a reasonable margin of error !!

    Party Predictions Actual

    Liberal 69 70

    PQ 45 30

    CAQ 9 22

    QS 2 3

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My projections on top were wrong, I don't know where I got those numbers... I wrote the right numbers on tooclosetocall if you wish to go and make sure I'm not lying. They were:

      67 PLQ
      39 PQ
      16 CAQ
      3 QS

      I had cheated, removing the trend from Marois's riding, which I shouldn't have. If I'd left the simulator do its job without tinkering with it, I would have predicted Marois losing. So, move one seat from the PQ to the PLQ, and you get:

      68 PLQ
      38 PQ
      16 CAQ
      3 QS

      Those are very close to the actual total seat results, only 9 seats would need to be moved. I underestimated the CAQ, but the PQ was overestimated by 1,5%, which played a lot against the CAQ. In total, I predicted 16 ridings wrong with the aggregated poll numbers, and 109 right, for an efficiency of 87,2%.

      Using the actual election numbers, I get:

      73 PLQ
      31 PQ
      18 CAQ
      3 QS

      Only 4 seats would need to be moved to the CAQ (3 from the PLQ and 1 from the PQ) and I would have gotten the total seat results right. I would have gotten 14 riding wrong, therefore 111 right out of 125 for 88,8% efficiency, which I think is pretty good for a simulator I made for fun, though surprisingly close to my pre-election results (and maybe problematicaly too close, I'll have to better it a bit I think).

      Delete
  18. I don't know about the rest of you but to me there are two significant things here.

    First of course is the swing to the Liberals.

    But possibly of even more importance is the shift from the PQ to the CAQ. A major shift ?

    ReplyDelete

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