Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Ambrose up in Nanos tracking

The weekly rolling poll from Nanos Research often shows shifts within the margin of error from one month to the next, but the latest set of numbers from Nanos shows that interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose has experienced a statistically significant increase in support.

Note to regular readers: these weekly poll reports can get a little tedious, so I will only write about new Nanos numbers in the future when they are showing a shift that is outside of the margin of error and worth a look.

Justin Trudeau still leads on who Canadians prefer for prime minister, and by a huge margin. He scored 52.2%, down slightly from the previous independent sample from Nanos.

Ambrose was up 3.3 points from Nov. 29-Dec. 27 poll to 14.6%, an increase that was outside the margin of error (though not by an enormous amount). It will be interesting to see if Ambrose continues to show growth.

Tom Mulcair was down a little to 11.5%, but has been wobbling back and forth since the election (as has Trudeau).

Elizabeth May was down to 3.5%, the lowest score for the Green Party leader recorded by Nanos since July.

And Rhéal Fortin of the Bloc Québécois — who is a virtual unknown in Quebec — was down again to just 0.9%. Presumably, that would only put him at about 3% to 4% in Quebec. By comparison, at his peak in Nanos's polling Gilles Duceppe managed 10% in the province during the campaign.


  1. Trudeau had to start coming back to earth sometime.

    I'm surprised that support isn't flowing to Mulcair, though.

    1. Those complaining about Trudeau have to realize back in 2006 how much the Tories/Blue Tories/neoliberals were railing and deriding and besmirching the Liberals.

      Either Tories have amnesia or they simply are selective but both are pretty bad because it displays outright how they want politics to be like in Canada.

      They do not care about our institutions and wanting an engaged public.

      They want manipulation and Canadians to despise others and they believe very much in scapegoating.

      Which is why Canada needs to get past this left-right dichotomy which in my mind is damaging for Canada and for national unity.

      That was proved this week by the behaviour of Tory MPs.

      They by their actions have caused a WSP to form, along with their friends at Rebel.

      I am a progressive conservative based on the spirit of Joe Clark when he was in parliament warning about the merger, much like Stanfield would have.

      Which is why to me the Progressive Canadian party should be party that brings conservatism back to its roots because the current Conservative party is simply CCRAP with the Conservative label, which Stevens our leader has shown time and time again is the real truth.

      What we need now is the right representation and the right parties in power.

      Media and their political class allies simply do not want a free, fair and open and true and participatory democracy in Canada. It is against what they want. They do not want a meritocracy.

    2. I was, for a time, an active western separatist, and I make no apologies for that. At the time, it appeared impossible that Alberta and Ontario could agree on how they should be governed, and in that case I see now reason why either would want to share a government with the other except to force your government on the other one.

      I want small government. If I can't convince the larger populations out east to give me a smaller government, I don't want to share a government with them.

    3. The idea of smaller government can never occur because government has to play a role which is why mixed economics is the only system possible to create full employment. This can only occur under social capitalism, state capitalism, nationalism or socialism. These movements have shown that if you keep manufacturing and have small businesses around the system you will have near full employment.

      The idea of libertarianism never created anything of any kind of full employment.

      The idea of disparities and giving money to corporations and letting it trickle down does nothing to help the average worker. This was proven during G W. Bush and Reagan. Obama continued much of the policies of neoliberalism and the same with Bush.

      I am anti-globalist but a progressive conservative and Paul Hellyer ran for both the Liberals and the PCs. Nationalism is I feel the best way to gain full employment and wanting to use ideology to divide the country is beyond selfish.

      Canada needs unity rather than division and I am glad the Conservative party is gone. They were self-serving and a party of de-confederation. Even Harper proved it with his quotes from the 90's.

  2. Based on that she has a long way to go Eric !!

    When do we get party numbers ??

  3. Ambrose has to take responsibility for being too divisive in parliament. The Conservative party has shown themselves to be a WSP because that is the origin of Reform/Alliance/Conservative.

    These are not PCs in Ottawa. They do not follow the same timeline and stream that the old PC party.

    A real PC party would follow the traditions of Toryism and High Toryism at that.

    They would want radical communitarian Toryism.

    They would want unity and would not be subservient to oil and gas over everything else.

    Canada should have an independent foreign policy as well. This is something we had from Tory tradition, and we should follow the traditions of Pearson and following the UN.

    I seriously believe that Ambrose is a disaster and having more partisanship will simply cause the conservative movement to diminish and centrists and left wingers to remain as a single group, wanting not to deviate from the Liberal coalition.

    As a Progressive Canadian party (PC party) supporter and a true progressive conservative, I still feel that a gap is missing in our Canadian political dichotomy and our spectrum. We cannot continue down this road because it is leading to a national unity crisis all started by Harper.

    Do not forget that the same man in the 90's, Harper, wanted 10 provinces and never much liked the label "Tories". It is true and the proof is all over the Internet.

    1. "Being Reform means never having to say you're Tory."

      This was a fairly common saying among Reformers in the 1990s.

    2. What nonsense you write. You are not a progressive conservative. Real Progressive Conservatives such as the Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney well know that a divided house can not stand much less win government and have made peace with this new conservative political covenant. It is often repeated that politics is the art of the possible. This necessitates compromise; Therefore the Conservative Party has a leadership selection process not unlike the presidential primary system whereby all ridings hold equal weight, generally assumed, to favours the left wing of the Party. Equally, the CPC favours constitutional monarchy and constitutional reform that hold equal attachment to all CPC members and espouse fiscal conservatism a nod to the right wing of the Party.

      Everyone I know thinks Ambrose is doing a good job. The Liberals have a very poor record on constitutional reform and national unity. It is right for the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition to warn when the Government's actions are inflaming regional tensions (Her constituents) and destabilising the country. Denis Corderre was way off side worrying about potential pollution from a pipeline after dumping 8 Billion Tons! of sewage into the Flueve Saint-Laurent. 20,0000 plus pounds of poo! Yet, he's worried about the theoretical possibility of an oil spill? One would hope that such concern would have been put into action regarding Montreal's sewage but, once again we see talk is cheap coming from a Liberal. He talks a good game but when push comes to shove this Liberal, now His Worship The Mayor of Montreal acts as if he is C. Montgomery Burns in the dawning days of the 20th Century. You use the word progressive as if the one who wears it holds divine attributes but, actions speak louder than words and as has often been said the only thing liberal about the Liberal Party of Canada is its name.

      Harper did more to solve the on-going Liberal created constitutional curfuffles. At least he went to the Supreme Court to see what legal and constitutional action could be taken. What we learned; the constitution is essentially impossible to amend due to the 1982 amendments. Therefore Trudeau must break the document and institute electoral reform without provincial consultation or proper constitutional consultations especially in regard to how a reformed HoC would interact with a still appointed Senate and the Crown. Worse still Trudeau refuses to hold a vote as convention would suggest is the proper course of action.

      One need only look at the leader of the Conservative Party, the second women to hold the post, in contrast to the Liberal Party, that has never allowed a women to lead it, to realise; real progressive actions come from the Conservative Party in this country.

    3. John,

      High Toryism? You wish the Conservative Party to be Jacobites? I'm afraid that dream died at the Battle of Cullodden and there is not much enthusiasm in Scotland or anywhere else for His Royal Highness The Duke of Bavaria to assert his claim to the thrones of England, Scotland, France and Ireland.

      This edition of the Conservative Party follows many of the same traditions as its previous incarnation including support for the Queen, Senate and constitutional reform, fiscal balance, and international cooperation with our allies and friends. Traditional Toryism would see Canada's foreign policy decided by the Dominions Office in London since, the Monarch by divine right has the authority to rule. Why do you think Traditional Toryism would produce an independent Canadian foreign policy? These two thought are philosophically opposite and contradictory.

      Ambrose is doing well and everyone knows it. I think you mean the national unity crisis started by Trudeau and Chretien at the "Night of Long Knives". Ambrose is simply expressing the views of her constituents who expect a quid pro quo after all the equalisation money that has been diverted from Alberta to Quebec over the years.
      Harper is only an M.P. now-get over it!

    4. I want a balanced foreign policy and the party to be identical to that of the former PC party which is now called the Progressive Canadian party.

      I do not understand why people keep ignoring that there are alternatives out there which would be centralist and would be positive and would cause national unity.

      Why do people think that Ambrose is somehow independent of the party. She isn't. Much of the reason for the hyperbolic rhetoric has to do with donors, radical members and the fact that the party is neocon.

      You can have parties that are conservatie and progressive. They have such parties in Ireland, Germany, France, Poland and so forth.

      Traditional Toryism is Red Toryism or by its true name which is Progressive Conservatism.

      The War on Terror has proven to be a failure and giving weapon manufacturers everything that they want. The whole reason to me why progressive conservatives cannot exist in Canada has to do with the fact that the more and more politics gets politicized only extreme ideas will remain.

      You are joking when you say dictated by the Queen and stuff like that. I want the PC Pearsonian foreign policy and that is what the Progressive Canadian party stands for. They want centrism on social issues and centre-right economic policy. Who are you trying to fool?!

      Quebec and Alberta would truly be unified by having a party that would want unity and a balanced foreign policy and real discussions on parliamentary democracy and economic policy. All we get now are empty words and rhetoric coming from all the mainstream parties. These mainstream parties in Ottawa have outlived their usefulness.

      It is time for electoral reform, getting money out of politics and real talks of how to have a meritocracy instead of the oligarchy that we have!

      Change is necessary!

      You can stop being a cheerleader for the neocons aka the globalists in the Conservative party and be serious for once. They are selling us out and are for selling Canada out.

    5. As for the Senate you ignore the 59 senators appointed and now they have the nerve to lecture Trudeau.

      You ignore the balance when they wanted to cut health transfers and they did not abide by the Canada Health Act.

      You actually believe that a one-sided foreign policy benefits anyone?

      I think Canada needs more independence so that we cannot be dictated or owned by anyone and so that Canada can truly stand up on its own two feet. It is a form of nationalism, but hey David Orchard ran under the PC banner in 2003.

      Even Paul Hellyer ran under both PC and Liberal banners in 1976 and 1968 respectfully.

      You conflate the issue to talk up the Conservatives when you fail to realize why they were turfed out of office.

      National unity can only occur with positive people and moderate ideologies and there is a void left from the merger which I feel only the Progressive Canadian party (PC party of Canada - real progressive conservatives) can fill.

      They would be positive and for real MP independence and messaging would never have to be filtered through a PMO office. It is refreshing to see Trudeau, but his party on economic policy is CON lite. Canada needs more nationalism and less globalism.

    6. Also traditional Toryism is not the Toryism from 100 years ago but from before the merger. It is from when there was a PC party back in 2003 and prior to that.

      It is called the Progressive Canadian party, which fills that void and is the true successor of the old PC party, headed by Sinclair Stevens.

      This new version of conservatism is neoconservative, globalism, corporatist and massively authoritarian and you are proud of that. They are populists and only care about self-serving issues. Do not forget that they wanted that one issue policy, when Canada is so much more than one industry. Even the vote on oil was a show when all parties want oil to get to market and they do not want to play games.

      That is what the Conservative party is nowadays. I had hoped that Canadians would see the light on what the Conservative party is all about.

      It is a party for corporations, big business, military industrialists and special interests. Canada needs a moderate right party and it exists.

      I hope I spelled it out for you!

    7. John,

      What you want is not Toryism, it is not Pearsonian foreign policy it is some comglomeration of ideas thought of by yourself. You call yourself a "true Tory" but, have a diatribe filled with insults addressed to the Conservative Party. You and Sinclair Stevens and the Progressive Canadian party may have once been Tories but, you are no longer. You are welcome to re-join the Tories, the Conservative Party so long as you agree with the founding principles. In any case they are no longer in Government so your critique would be better placed in the hear and now instead of the recent past.

  4. Well John when the Liberals bring in a version of proportional representation maybe you can make another version of the old PC's


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